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 Technology Stocks | ADI: The SHARCs are circling!

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (909)5/20/1998 1:09:00 PM
From: Lucas Wan   of 2882
 
somebody is blaming it as catalyst that kills the tech sector today !

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To: Lucas Wan who wrote (910)5/20/1998 1:14:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su   of 2882
 
Based on the reaction, I think investors might have confused this stock with K-Tel or anyone of the wild high flyers. I have owned ADI for almost 3 years and don't remember ever seeing an one day move like today.

Ramsey

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (911)5/20/1998 1:44:00 PM
From: DRL   of 2882
 
I see big trades going by, people are moving stock.

10,000
20,000
50,000
15,000

those aren't my trades

also many smalls also

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To: DRL who wrote (912)5/20/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su   of 2882
 
there are tons of block trades today. the whole company must have changed hands once already.

It is funny how Joe Kernen on CNBC just reported on ADI. It is obvious that he, and probably many of the investors, had no idea what ADI actually produces. I think he said another one of these chip makers, also saying something about old analog.

I wonder how many people rushed out to sell MU because ADI reported a bad qtr?

Ramsey

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To: DRL who wrote (912)5/20/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: BostonView   of 2882
 
Definite surprise for ADI to miss their number so badly and call for a flat Q3...looks like a full and painful day at the woodshed!

Nothing really scares me about the basic business and future earnings outlook. Based on just this news, I'm anxious to buy back in after the quick money is out and the downgrades are announced.

Curious to hear other buy-sell-hold comments....

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To: BostonView who wrote (914)5/20/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: Doug   of 2882
 
B.V: My guess is we may see the 25 or lower level especially as there is no +ve drivers till Oct 98.

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To: BostonView who wrote (914)5/20/1998 2:30:00 PM
From: shane forbes   of 2882
 
i think it will be going down further

this is what happens w/ lots of instit. ownership + big time -ve surprise (esp. next q -7 c likely more if you read between the lines)

company solid however

often goes thru these s/t thumpings

does not leak information so surprises tend to be surprises!

have to be very concerned about industrial weakness??? if so then huge trouble since industrial is usually relatively immune to PC and comm. weakness - however if it happens one has to be very worried about gen'l economin conditions.

I need to check further if there was any industrial weakness. I hope not.

GSM a bit slow is not unexpected.

NSM -ve surprise hinted that ADI was more than likely going to disappoint - did not think it would be this much!!!

Shane. (usually I think 20% drops are not warranted. this is one of those rare instances where I actually think the drop is warranted. over the next few weeks we will be seeing heavy very heavy distribution. Stock should make a 52 week low.)

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To: shane forbes who wrote (916)5/20/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: Michael Dean   of 2882
 
Just another little goody - Under the symbol ADI Pointcast has a news article on ADI's results - sales down 6.7% and a loss of 0.28 per share vs. 0.15 last quarter.

Only problem is it is the wrong ADI - some co. named Aviation Distributors Incorporated. Surely there are not investors out there that know so little about what they are holding as to get the two confused ????

Certainly seems an extreme reaction. In my view, Analog Devices has a strong position in a substantial niche market (along with Burr Brown, Maxim, Linear Technologies, etc) which is different than the commodity semiconductor memory and logic companies.

I expected a bit of a temporary slowdown because of reduced sales for cellular/PCS, but this reaction seems greatly overdone to me.

I'm holding .. too late to get out now anyway.

Mike

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To: Doug who wrote (915)5/20/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: BostonView   of 2882
 
I think you may be right; no quick turnaround likely in these shares. I see some continued selling pressure followed by a weak technical rally then the inevitable test of the lows (whatever they may be).

I just checked my records and see that tomorrow is 30 days since selling. My hands are tied for another day but I'm in no rush to jump back in. This train ain't leaving the station any time soon.

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To: BostonView who wrote (918)5/20/1998 4:43:00 PM
From: Charles Tutt   of 2882
 
I think the current weakness is also likely to bring on some "window dressing" weakness at the end of the quarter.

JMHO.

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