Strategies & Market TrendsJohn P's Market Laboratory

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (13090)12/14/2011 6:31:59 PM
From: John P
   of 21026
Tom, I was rhinking rhat i was addressing another question...... and then realized that this was in response to another Q.............

The 2 articles by Jim Grant and Jeremey Granthan back at the top in the spring ....were a thought i was ringing the warning bell.

Gratham of GMO is one of the smartest assest managers arounds and he stated:

"This nugget came up recently, so we tested it. Bingo!
In the first seven months of the third year since 1960, Year 3 has returned 2.5% per month for a total of 20% real (after infl ation adjustment). In contrast, the second
five months after May have delivered an average return of 0.5% per month, as does the fourth year of the cycle. Now, 20% is perilously close to the total for the whole 48-month cycle of 21%."

so the bottom line that I posted with a company article was you had your 20% and that was all you were suppossed too so you could move to cash or other stronger you have already bagged your qouta on what you had picked up your 20% gain in US Equities

Message 27391793


Once bullish, contrarian Jim Grant likes cash now
(AP) – 05/21/11

NEW YORK (AP) — Jim Grant quotes obscure dead economists at length. He pines for an earlier time of gas lights and top hats when the dollar was convertible to gold. He wears bowties.

Prolific author, gold bug, droll chronicler of Wall Street folly, Grant would be easy to dismiss as an entertaining but irrelevant throwback if he hadn't been proven so right so often. Now, as small investors are putting more money into markets, the publisher of the biweekly Grant's Interest Rate Observer is warning of new dangers. He says prices are too high for nearly every asset you can think of — stocks, junk bonds, Treasury bonds, British gilts, even Iowa corn fields.

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To: John P who wrote (13092)12/14/2011 7:23:59 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie
1 Recommendation   of 21026
I do remember a lot of the 2%/4% moves back in March 2000....right before the crash.

I developed a couple of rules over the years.

1. All booms must bust (all bubbles must pop)
2. It's never as bad as the bears think
3. It's never as good as the bulls think

Looking at some of the wider view charts, I can't see the DJIA going much below 8000...and that's a worst case scenario. If the equities are headed down, I really don't see much below 10k. I could very easily make an argument based on technicals for a small move down followed by an even stronger move up into the 14k range.

But then again, the euro mess could have some nasty implications.....

The clearest pictures for me are with Gold and the Euro going down and the Dollar going up. The charts would need to get pretty broken to change the picture on those. Oil looks like it has topped, but there is still some wiggle room on the interpretation of the chart. Equities...what I said above...charts aren't really broken yet, but they do look toppy.

I'd like everything to just kinda stay where it is right now....I have some business stuff going on that will be better if things don't go up too much AND don't go down too much.

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To: John P who wrote (13093)12/14/2011 10:12:22 PM
From: Hawkmoon
2 Recommendations   of 21026
He says prices are too high for nearly every assetyou can think of — stocks, junk bonds, Treasury bonds, British gilts, even Iowa corn fields.

I think he may be right.. and it COULD BE that the Fed is recognizing that they can't help the economy with more QE, so it's possible that they need to pop the commodities bubble so raw material decreases leave more room for wage growth.

Not sure, but I've been amazed that commodity prices have been this high given decreasing consumer demand..

But then again, that's what happens when the Fed tries to push down the USD and speculators engage in USD/Commodity carry trades.

Those appear to be unwinding now..


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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (13095)12/14/2011 10:27:38 PM
From: ggersh
   of 21026
I totally agree fwiw.

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (13094)12/15/2011 1:04:17 AM
From: John P
1 Recommendation   of 21026
Ron Paul brings his "A" game to the debate......... this is a simply stunning video compilation of his responses
from the ABC debate on Dec 11th.

He's got it nailed down...... The Fed creates asset bubbles,malinvestment and inflation that steals money from the middle class (and the poor) and give it to the 1% at the top.

A very powerful concise message..... He's got Gingrich talking about Auditing the FED, he's got Perry talking about the FED, Romney is saying he's amazed at the grass roots crowds that Ron Paul Brings.

Bachmann Knows Austrian economics and has talked about reading Von Mises at the beach.....

That 13 minute clip of Ron Paul is very powerful.


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To: John P who wrote (13097)12/15/2011 11:02:41 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie
2 Recommendations   of 21026
Ron Paul definitely has the right message on domestic policies, whether economic or social.

I am torn on his foreign policy. I believe that meddling in the affairs of others is a big part of the problems that we have internationally, however sometimes I think that it is justified. Could we really stand on the sidelines if another Hitler came into being?

And the thing that I worry about most with Libertarians is uncompromising approach toward their ideology (and I say that as a registered libertarian).

I can see voting for Paul in the primaries. And there is no doubt that I would vote for him against Obama. But I do have some reservations.

I dunno though, maybe we do need a guy who will take care of our domestic economy above all else. We do have a lot of work to do to fix the damage that has been done over the years.

Another worry that I have with Paul is that he is extreme. And he's extreme in a way that I agree with. But what I expect with any extreme politician is for the pendulum to swing the opposite direction in an extreme way. It is exactly Obama's extreme politics that has made Paul a viable candidate.

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To: John P who wrote (13089)12/16/2011 3:52:35 AM
From: pcyhuang
   of 21026
What Changes Await Us in 2012?

Nothing endures but change.

-Heraclitus, Lives of the Philosophers by Diogenes Laertius

As the year slowly draws to a close, you may notice some change in the air. Not the annual, nostalgic-laced look-backs that are so ubiquitous around this time of year, but rather, actual shifts in the underlying firmament of our world.

Consider each of the following as an early warning that your expectations may not be met — unless you are expecting surprises:

• Santa Clause Rally: Saint Nick has yet to appear on Wall and Broad this year. If Santa “passes over” the houses of traders this year, I fear we could see 10 plagues in 2012.

• Earnings: Always look great at record, cyclical peaks. But what will they do if the major economies of the world fall into recessions? A 20-30% drop is certainly possible.

• Economy: Continues to show signs of softening. Job creation almost is keeping up with population growth, unemployment is ticking down because workers are leaving the labor pool. Retail sales, despite the NRF spin, are poised to disappoint.

• Gold: This could be the biggest disappointment of the year. The Gold pullback has some traders declaring this to be the end of the bull run. Who knew the shiny yellow metal could turn into a lump of coal?

• International Affairs: From the Arab Spring to the mess in the Euro-zone to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the world is getting ever more complex, challenging and difficult. 2011 could be the most confusing and complicated set of events in many decades. Macro investors are having enormous challenges navigating. It is unlikely to get any easier in 2012.

• Oil: Seems to sliding with all of the other commodities. OPEC seems to be ready to pump more to offset falling prices (Someone should give them an Econ primer). The usual suspects will declare how good this effect is for the consumer, while ignoring the cause: Recession in Europe, a potential recession in the US, and a huge slowdown in production in Asia.

• Psychology: Most investors continue to operating out of the rear view mirrors. They have been damaged by the 3 boom & busts — Tech, Housing, Stocks — of the past decade. If commodities succumb as well, it will have a pernicious effect on their outlook.

• Politics: The corruption of Congress is now taken for granted, as their single digit approval numbers reach record lows. Perhaps more surprising is the lack of leadership on both sides of the aisle. President Obama arrived with great fanfare but disappointed anyone who hoped for change from the Bush bailouts (I blame Rubin’s proteges, Summers & Geithner for that). Despite the incumbent being vulnerable, the other side seems unable to nominates anyone “Presidential” — or at least capable of garnering a majority of GOP supporters.

The bottom line remains simply this: If you ever made the mistake of believing you could rely on forecasts as to what is coming next, that error in thinking should be all but eradicated as of now. And for those of you smart enough not to have relied on Wall Street’s forecasts, for God’s sake, don’t start now . . .

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To: pcyhuang who wrote (13099)12/16/2011 1:40:03 PM
From: Augustus Gloop
2 Recommendations   of 21026
Couple those things with the real possibility of a conflict with Iran

Such an event would be a real fugly for global markets and economies

Whether its the US or the Hebrews I'm not sure a conflict can be avoided in the next 12-18 months

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From: Augustus Gloop12/18/2011 10:42:00 PM
1 Recommendation   of 21026
Ding dong the witch is %*^in' DEAD

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To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (13101)12/18/2011 11:03:22 PM
From: Hawkmoon
   of 21026
About Freakin' time!!

But now it's going to get interesting.. Succession and power struggles always are.. The "new guy" has to "prove" himself to be worthy..

And in this case, he has to prove himself to the NK military...


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