Technology Stocks | John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks


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To: wlheatmoon who wrote (2494)10/18/2001 12:45:15 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie   of 2849
 
Hi Mike,
Good to hear from you. Hope all is well.
JXM

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2496)10/18/2001 2:20:52 PM
From: wlheatmoon   of 2849
 
tom,,thanks for the thought. all is fine..just been busy and the world seems changed. priorities have changed. spending more time with family, work, enjoying the outdoors..less time goofing on the net....

hope all is well for you, too.

mike

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To: wlheatmoon who wrote (2494)10/18/2001 2:29:35 PM
From: John Pitera   of 2849
 
Hi Mike, it's really good to hear from you, I know that you've been much happier and more engaged since your
move and new work assignment, and that's really great, plus the market has been not the Festival of Merriment and Mirth that it was was upon a time.

I was looking back at the Myth Thread last night, back in Jan and Feb of 1999.....you know you used to post
over there all the bloody time -vbg-

ACAM, with a price to sales of 30 scares me to death... -ng- but then this article on smallpox is scary as well.



It is a very sad and changed world, and it's very upsetting to think about Bill Meehan's tragic death, way up
at the top of the Trade tower. What a scary way to go. When I worked at Chase, we had a library in another
building, not 1 Chase Man Plaza and the building was quite close to the WTC, I could look out at the Towers
and thought that if those feel over it looks like they could hit this building. Now we know they don't fall like trees.

I really wish that I did not know this little fact.

When I took the PATH from NJ it came out underneath the WTC and I'd take the escalator up and walk out of it
every morning.

a little note on yesterday's outside reversal day:



John says:
the outside reversal days yesterday were huge on the NASD, SPX, DJIA, OEX, RUT
John says:
see the power of those 50 dma's?????
John says:
OEX hit it's yesterday
John says:
it's kind of hard to believe that with the huge sell off below the 50 dma in late sept in all averages that
the nasd, ndx, spx, oex RUT would all hit the 50 dma's on exactly the same day

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2496)10/18/2001 8:28:44 PM
From: John Pitera   of 2849
 
AOL--this was an interesting article I had been saved a long time ago to post

AOL Transforming Itself in Expansion Bid Abroad

Tuesday, May 29, 2001
By Alec Klein,
Washington Post Staff Writer

LONDON – World domination begins with a woman named Connie.

The biggest Internet company in Britain got that way on the shoulders of a make-believe character who stands 5 feet 11 inches tall and sports a strawberry-hued bowl haircut. Connie is
endowed with distinctly British attributes to serve as a television pitchwoman for the local audience: She's crisp and proper and a helpful nanny to the Internet, someone to hold the hand of
wary consumers.

Think Mary Poppins, cyber style.

That's what AOL Time Warner Inc. was thinking when it concocted Connie. Be British – to a point. As the U.S. media giant spreads its brand around the globe, it's trying to blend into the local
scenery while still exporting its powerful stable of American entertainment products. It's a delicate balancing act that AOL has turned into a new model for globalization.

AOL is not simply imposing American culture. It is reinventing itself for each unique audience. And it's finding success: Connie is something of a cult figure in Britain, and AOL is the nation's
No. 1 Internet provider.

From an obscure Internet start-up conceived 16 years ago in the leafy suburbs of Northern Virginia, the local kid from Dulles has moved to New York and transformed itself into the planet's
largest media and entertainment company with its $112 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc., which was completed in January.

The patriarch of Washington's technology corridor is now pushing its products overseas by using a strategy that is an alchemy of quirky advertising and personal politics, fueled by corporate
strategists who are employing the science of market research, giving away software on compact disks, wooing the media and propping up grass-roots groups.

"Where there's growth, we ought to be," says Robert W. Pittman, AOL Time Warner's co-chief operating officer, adding: "We're going to be in the moron hall of fame if we don't take advantage
of the brand."

In AOL's global strivings, there is a hint of manifest destiny. Chairman Steve Case talks of its "mission of becoming the world's most valued and respected company." But there also is a
practical dimension to all this empire-building: The technology sector is a shambles, the Internet revolution is in question, and growth in the U.S. market is slowing.

Multinationals such as AOL – explorers in search of new dominions – must look abroad for customers. And yet these behemoths find themselves strangers in foreign lands, where they play
the part of scrappy start-ups, battling entrenched competitors. The campaign has not been easy for AOL as it encounters government monopolies, the vagaries of the political process,
unfriendly telephone-pricing plans and a host of challenges indigenous to the Internet.

Enormous Challenge

A hulking brick building tattooed with a giant "T" sits across the street from the AOL headquarters in Hamburg, a constant reminder of its dweller, rival Deutsche Telekom AG, and of the
hugeness of the American company's challenge abroad.

If AOL is to prevail in Europe, it must succeed in Germany, one of the most powerful countries on the continent.

It is 10:41 a.m. in a sterile-looking conference room, and Michael Lynton, president of AOL International, is sitting back, arms folded, listening to his assembled troops. Just arriving after an
overnight flight from New York, the 41-year-old executive cuts an elegant, casual figure in an open-collared checkered shirt, gray slacks and chocolate suede shoes. But there is no mistaking,
he is agitated.

AOL has run into a wall in Germany. Deutsche Telekom – or DT, as it is known – is the country's biggest Internet provider, and it controls the telephone network that links AOL customers to
the Web. DT also happens to be majority-owned by the German government.


DT charges AOL by the minute for use of its phone network. But AOL charges its customers a flat monthly rate. That means the longer customers stay online, the more it costs AOL. It's a
problem because AOL wants to encourage its customers to stay connected. The longer they are online, the more inviting a target they are to advertisers.

To change the rules, Gunnar Bender, AOL's top lobbyist in Germany, says AOL needs the help of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who has made technology a top priority of his administration.
The German leader wouldn't be terribly impressed if AOL arranged a sit-down with, for instance, President Bush, Bender says. But a meeting with AOL's chairman, Steve Case? Now, that
would get Schroeder's attention.

"He likes to talk to the big boys," Bender says.

Lynton agrees, saying he'll "make sure we have Steve in front of Schroeder."

New Competitors

AOL needs friends on a continent where its chief competitors aren't Microsoft Corp., Walt Disney Co. and the rest of the usual suspects in the United States. Abroad, it's competing with
former state monopolies and telecommunications giants with home-field advantage: DT, British Telecommunications PLC and France Telecom SA.

Since launching its international operations in 1994, AOL has stumbled beyond its borders at times. One of the most embarrassing missteps occurred two years ago after the company kicked
off its service in Latin America. When some customers loaded the AOL software on their computers, they were greeted by a blaring Brazilian samba – a factory glitch.

Still, 2000 was AOL's best year overseas. It added about 2 million subscribers, growing by 50 percent over the previous year, to more than 6 million members abroad. AOL already is the
closest thing to a global Internet provider, with more than 32 million subscribers. AOL has planted its flag in 16 foreign countries in eight languages, serving more than 1,000 cities.

Its best showing overseas has been in Europe, where it tops the British market in online subscribers and is No. 2 in Germany and France. Five years after entering Europe, AOL has garnered
more than 5.6 million customers.

AOL continues to carve out new markets. In the Netherlands, for instance, the company only offers its CompuServe online service, not the flagship AOL. Lynton wants to do better, as he
makes clear at a meeting a day later in London.

"Do we have a business plan that could work?" the international chief asks the head of AOL operations in the Netherlands. "How much cash do we have to burn before we get to a big
subscriber number?"

He is told 100.

As in $100 million. That would be the cost to AOL to establish a beachhead in the Netherlands. Lynton doesn't flinch.

Next up: the Asia-Pacific region, a tough market including Japan, China and Australia, where AOL has been forced to team up with local companies to make inroads. Japan has been
especially difficult because there are so many local competitors. Which may be why Lynton is frowning now.

He and a top lieutenant are going over a chart showing different pricing plans for the online service and how company officials expect Japanese consumers to respond to them. It's not pretty.
Lynton glances at his watch: "I'm running out of time."

Moments later, a driver is escorting Lynton in a black Mercedes sedan to Heathrow. In the back seat, he is working his Motorola cell phone, telling a colleague, "I'm just going to Paris for a
minute."

A Hectic Life

Globe-trotting is part of the job. Lynton, a platinum frequent flier, tallied 372,186 miles last year (not including trips in the corporate twin-engine prop plane), logged 1,316 cell-phone minutes in
March alone and fields about 400 e-mails a day. His children – 6, 4 and 2 years old – have already learned to hate daddy's cell phone and laptop.

But Lynton is no stranger to the pace. A boy wonder of the corporate world, he's a Harvard graduate who speaks four languages and has run Disney's Hollywood Pictures and Pearson PLC's
esteemed publishing house Penguin Group.

Since he arrived at AOL in December 1999, the company has increasingly leaned on him in its mounting push into foreign markets. He says it's a matter of opportunity – consumers overseas
are awakening to the Web, logging on in increasing numbers. "Now is the moment when AOL should make a push," he says.

The numbers back him up: In 1999, there were about 90 million Internet users in the United States and about 80 million users abroad, according to analysts. That U.S. lead is expected to
disappear by 2003, with about 180 million Internet users in the United States and about 240 million abroad.

But there is another trend that compels AOL to go overseas. About 60 million U.S. households, or 60 percent of the nation, will have Internet access by year's end, 11 percent more than last
year. But that is only half the growth rate over the previous year, according to Forrester Research Inc.

"Slowly but surely it is becoming saturated," says analyst Steve Harris of International Data Corp. "There are only so many people who can go online."

Introducing Connie

A big AOL breakthrough in Europe occurred in October 1998, when Connie was invented after intensive market research.

The experts made the character a woman, which they determined to be less threatening than a man. They gave her mass appeal, demographically situated as an older sister or mature
daughter.

Connie proved to be a hit, with hundreds of photograph requests arriving each month from fans. AOL accommodates them by sending postcard pictures of Connie – signed, of course.
Meanwhile, the British actress who plays the role – Rachel Willis – has been the subject of tabloid fodder. And AOL has used her likeness widely in its British marketing campaign, including
promotional appearances where look-alike models wear ginger-colored wigs and hand out free CDs.

Rosie Blake, for one, can attest to Connie's effectiveness. Last year, the 30-year-old Londoner was an Internet newbie who feared the technology but wanted to learn more, especially how to
e-mail her older brother Paul in Vancouver. "I was terrified, absolutely terrified," she says, "but I was also intrigued."

The Connie ads hooked her. "They were whizzy; you couldn't ignore them," Blake says. Then, AOL hit her with its distinctly American promotion – direct mail – enclosing a CD with 50 free
online hours in one of her book-club packages.

Before Connie's arrival in Britain, AOL had considered using inanimate characters to pitch its wares – such as an anthropomorphized computer – but officials decided against them when
research underscored the importance of humanizing the online experience.

Rival British Telecom went the other way, enlisting E.T., the cute alien from the '80s movie, as the television shill for its online service. BT says it is confident its alien can go head to head with
AOL's Connie – but AOL is growing faster, garnering about 2.5 million subscribers since launching the service in 1996.

That growth hasn't come cheap. Competitors say AOL has racked up massive marketing and capital expenditures to grab market share. AOL doesn't disclose such expenses, but
competitors reckon that AOL has lost hundreds of millions of dollars in its foray into Europe, spending heavily on huge television advertising campaigns and building the computer network to
serve its expanding base of subscribers.

"They've got a huge loss-making business in Europe," says Simon Preston, chief executive of Tiscali UK, a big Italian-owned Internet service provider. "They will have to think about an
alternative strategy in Europe."

Lynton disagrees. "We have a business model that works," he says, "and it clearly works in the United States."

What remains to be seen is how AOL will incorporate Time Warner to boost its presence overseas.

"Now it's AOL Time Warner; that's a totally different animal," says Preston Dodd, a senior analyst at Jupiter Research. "Where is that going to go? How are they going to leverage their
content? What are they going to do globally?"

Looking for Partners

For now, Lynton, AOL's point man on international operations, uses a variety of tactics to build the subscriber base. One is to form corporate partnerships.

At another meeting in AOL's London office, the talk focuses on a major German consumer electronics retailer that wants to get out of the Internet access business and become a partner of
AOL.

The benefits are unstated but understood: AOL would acquire subscribers – in company parlance, "subs," the driver of revenue growth. What the German retailer wants in return is another
matter: cash and equity.

"We would pay them bounties to migrate folks," says Lance Conn, AOL's top dealmaker in Europe. By "bounties" he is referring to the cost of transferring the retailer's customers to the AOL
service. "The trickier piece is: How do we give them upside on AOL stock?"

"It's expensive to us," Lynton says.

"Maybe we agree on an amount, say $100 per sub, half in cash and the right to buy if AOL IPOs," Conn says.

He is talking about potentially huge stuff. AOL would offer the retailer the right to buy stock in an initial public offering of shares in AOL's European operation. The payoff could be enormous:
Last year, AOL spun off its Latin American division, raising $200 million. With a bigger audience, Europe potentially would be worth billions.

Lynton anticipates a counteroffer from AOL's German rival. "Are we in a footrace?" he asks.

Conn beams a confident grin, which can only mean one thing – the retailer has approached AOL alone. "Their original thought," he says, "was that AOL would come and sprinkle its magic
dust."

The Look of an Upstart

For all its corporate muscle, AOL's operations abroad have the feel of an unceremonious upstart. It is just before 6 p.m. on the ninth floor of AOL's Hamburg offices, and Gunnar Bender has
his feet kicked up on his paper-strewn desk, overlooking the red-light district below and his four-person crew next door.

On his cabinet rests an AOL gingerbread cookie in the shape of a heart. A can of Spam sits on top of a stack of books. And then there is Bender's prized possession – a snapshot of himself
as an intern in AOL's legal department in 1997, standing next to Case, the AOL chairman. Both men are in shorts.

Bender, now 30 years old, is AOL's chief of public policy and government relations in Germany. He runs a mostly small-time lobbying campaign. He is not above faxing fliers to members of the
German government containing such statements as "Please help!"

Another prong of his attack: He helps orchestrate activities of a grass-roots group headed by a Berlin student. Bender and his 23-year-old compatriot strategize about regulatory issues and
how to get momentum. It helps when there's a groundswell of public support, not just a big company stirring things up. AOL assists the grass-roots group by partially funding newspaper
advertisements, giving it contact names and addresses and writing draft press releases for it.

"We make it sound professional," Bender says.

The big splash so far came last October after AOL helped the group come up with the idea of circulating a petition calling for a change in German regulations, which resulted in 40,000
signatures being delivered to state officials in a wheelbarrow – and a whole lot of press coverage.

AOL has employed another standby of the lobbying trade: gift-giving. Earlier this year, the company sent the head of AOL Germany on a four-city tour of universities. Bender, concerned about
whether students would show up, helped come up with the idea of handing out free plastic coffee mugs, emblazoned with the AOL running-man icon. Even with that inducement, however,
sometimes only 30 students showed up at his talks. "It was humbling," Bender says.

But not more so than the Becker scandal.

Boris Becker, the former tennis star and AOL's chief pitchman in Germany, recently fathered a Russian model's child out of wedlock, divorced his wife and made headlines over an alleged
tryst with a German rap singer.

If necessary, the company was prepared to remove Becker from the advertising campaign and replace him with its generic "At Home" television spots that feature soft music and happy family
members. But first AOL wanted to consult its market research to see how the public felt.

The results were off the charts. The scandal actually "had a positive impact," says an AOL marketing official. As it turns out, the adage holds – sex sells, and bad publicity is good publicity.
AOL's research showed that while Becker was an idol before the controversy, he was even more popular after the divorce because he's a superstar, and no one expects a superstar to lead a
normal life.

Not one to lose the advantage, AOL is now in production on a Becker television campaign that makes a lighthearted mention of his divorce. Sometimes, conquering the world requires a touch
of improvisation.

"As long as he doesn't do drugs," the AOL marketing official says, "that's fine."

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2496)10/18/2001 10:47:12 PM
From: John Pitera   of 2849
 
JNPR: EXCEPTIONAL QUARTER ON ALL PARAMETERS-RAISING RATING BACK TO 2S FROM



Salomon Smith Barney ~ October 12, 2001


Juniper Networks (JNPR)#
JNPR: EXCEPTIONAL QUARTER ON ALL 2S (Outperform, Speculative)
PARAMETERS-RAISING RATING BACK TO 2S FROM 3S Mkt Cap: $7,339.2 mil.

October 12, 2001 SUMMARY

* In this perfect storm the ship got home, Juniper
TELECOMMUNICATIONS delivers a strong quarter: raising rating to 2S from
EQUIPMENT 3S and price target to $26 and estimates.
B. Alexander Henderson * Quote Of The Call: "Events of September did not
impact our business".

* Raise the question: Have analysts over cut
Daryl Armstrong forecasts on service provider related spending? Its
looking likely that we are overly cautious on our
forecasts, Riverstone #(RSTN,1S, $11), Extreme
(EXTR,1H,$13.9), Foundry,(FDRY,1H, $11.6) Enterasys
(ETS, 1H, $8.3) Cisco (CSCO, 1H, $17) are likely
biggest beneficiaries.

* With very sharp gains from the bottom, we are back
to mid August price levels on most names in the
category.
* We draw a distinction between Datacom Vs Optical
names-networking gear delivers capacity in a linear
manner; optical equipment is laid in large
increments and has a long frequency between network
upgrade cycles.

FUNDAMENTALS
P/E (12/01E) 41.0x
P/E (12/02E) 45.3x
TEV/EBITDA (12/01E) 29.6x
TEV/EBITDA (12/02E) 29.6x
Book Value/Share (12/01E) NA
Price/Book Value NA
Dividend/Yield (12/01E) NA/NA
Revenue (12/01E) $915.0 mil.
Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth 35%
ROE (12/01E) NA
Long-Term Debt to Capital(a) NA

(a) Data as of most recent quarter
SHARE DATA RECOMMENDATION
Price (10/10/01) $21.72 Current Rating 2S
52-Week Range $243.00-$9.29 Prior Rating 3S
Shares Outstanding(a) 337.9 mil. Current Target Price $26.00
Convertible No Previous Target Price $13.00
EARNINGS PER SHARE
FY ends 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Year
12/00A Actual $0.03A $0.08A $0.17A $0.24A $0.53A
12/01E Current $0.25A $0.09A $0.10A $0.10E $0.53E
Previous $0.25A $0.09A $0.07E $0.07E $0.46E
12/02E Current $0.11E $0.12E $0.12E $0.14E $0.48E
Previous $0.07E $0.08E $0.09E $0.11E $0.35E
12/03E Current $0.14E $0.16E $0.17E $0.20E $0.67E

Previous $0.12E $0.13E $0.14E $0.15E $0.55E
First Call Consensus EPS: 12/01E $0.49; 12/02E $0.49; 12/03E $0.57


JUNIPER DELIVERS EXCEPTIONAL QUARTER AND NAVIGATES THE PERFECT STORM--RAISING
RATING, ESTIMATES, AND PRICE TARGETS
Juniper reported results well ahead of forecast with better than expected
margins, good revenue linearity, rising gross margins, declining DSO,
increasing deferred revenues, and declining operating costs. Additionally
they not only gave guidance for 4Q and for 2002, they gave guidance which
suggest rising revenues and earnings.


Raising Rating To 2S Accumulate From 3S Hold. Despite the recent
appreciation in JNPR shares off the bottom, the performance in the quarter
and the commentary from management lead us to believe Juniper may have
bottomed operationally and there is more upside to the earnings estimates
than downside risk.

Valuation An Issue But Not A Big One. While the shares have rallied sharply
they are at 44 times 2002 earnings and 32 times 2003 numbers. We think
Juniper can grow 35% over the next 3-5 years as data networking traffic
continues to expand and as the data networking sector continues to take share
from traditional equipment categories. Based on this growth rate, we think 2
times growth is attainable which implies a target of 70 times earnings in a
healthy economic backdrop.
Even if we discount the growth rate back to 25%,
this yields a 50 P/E on forward results. By the end of 2002, this yields a
target of price of $33.
We believe our target price of $26, which is based
on 55X 2002 estimates and 40 times 2003 estimates by the end of 2002 is
reasonable and defensible even if the growth target were as low as 20%
annually.

Critical Quote: "The Events Of September Did Not Impact Sales"--This Raises
The Critical Question: Did Most Analysts Over Cut Estimates.
With Juniper
indicating there was good linearity in the quarter and no disruption from the
events of September, and Cisco indicating there was good linearity in the
quarter and while sales dipped initially they rebound back quickly, the
evidence is building that the impact on telecom equipment spending may be in
fact less than feared. This raises the possibility that estimates may have
been over cut and that finally the long slide in expectations could be over.
This is not to suggest there isn't risk to consolidation and to further cape
cuts and to weakening domestic economic conditions or to a reverberation of
domestic pressures back into the international markets, but rather that the
impact of these considerations may have already been over estimated.

We Draw A Distinction Between Data Networking And Optical And Between Service
Provider Demand And Enterprise Demand. Capacity additions in optical come in
big slugs, where as networking gear is delivered in much finer smaller
capacity increments. As a result, demand for new optical systems is over a
longer frequency and demand for networking gear a much more rapid
periodicity. This is critical in accessing the timing of the market recovery
and the degree to which data traffic growth parallels equipment sales. We
strongly believe Juniper's ability to deliver revenue growth is the result of
its ability to continue to deliver new capacity in the form of line cards to
existing equipment AND new chassis
. As large carriers have completed their
networks the capacity deployed in the optical domain is substantial. The
amount of capacity which can be added by simply adding line cards is
substantially greater than that of the data networking gear which supports
the back bone. As a result, there is still a lengthy period of absorption
and a more gradual eventual recovery in the optical market.
The stability of the demand in the service provider market reflects the lack
of direct impact of the September events on the service providers business.
While many enterprises are directly impacted, the service providers are
likely to see only a minor hit to overall demand. As a result, it now
appears that many service providers continued operating without disruption to
orders for critical networking systems during September. This foots to the
commentary from Cisco and from Juniper

. Even Sonus (SONS, NR, $4) and ONI
(ONIS, 1S,$8.32) appear to have experienced pressures unrelated to the
September attacks. We think the impact on the enterprise arena is more
direct and we suspect the estimate adjustments in this arena may prove to be
more accurate than the cuts at the service provider oriented names.

Data Networking Names Likely The Prime Beneficiaries-Cisco, Riverstone,
Extreme, Foundry And Enterasys Likely Beneficiaries Of Recalibration Of
Demand Outlook. We think the data networking names are the primary
beneficiaries of the Juniper and Cisco commentaries. We have sharply cut
estimates on most of the names in this category and may have over done it.
Riverstone. The similarities with Juniper is tightest with Riverstone.
Riverstone sells data networking gear and sells exclusively to service
providers. We cut our estimates on Riverstone sharply. If Riverstone
experiences the same demand trends as Juniper and Cisco, our estimates and
most of the other estimates on the Street may prove to be too low. While
Riverstone looks expensive on our current forecasts, its actually relatively
inexpensive on the pre attack estimates. Riverstone is trading at 4.5 times
CY 2003 revenues as compared to Cisco at 6.0 and Juniper at 6.4 times.
We
cut our revenue forecast by over 30% as a result of the attack. We think
RSTN can regain the mid teens levels if our estimates prove overly cautious.
Our official target price remains $15
.
Extreme. While Extreme is selling at 77 times First Call estimated earnings
for 2002, we think this includes a number of estimates which likely over
reacted to the conditions of September. For instance, we cut our estimates
to breakeven for the quarter where from $0.07 per share prior forecast. With
half of Extreme's revenues coming from service providers and from market
niches which are at least as well insulated as Juniper's it is likely this
was over kill. EXTR at $13.90 is selling at an exceptionally low 3.6 times
2002 revenues even after the recent rally.
We think these shares should be
valued more reasonably at 5-6 times revenues. Moreover, the revenue
estimates are likely too low.

Foundry.

Foundry does over half its revenues in the service provider market
in arenas not distant from those of Juniper. We think the estimates may be
overly conservative and the stock is at an attractive valuation. At last
night final trade price of $11.60, FDRY is selling at 34 times 2002 earnings
and 25 times the First Call average for 2003. This low valuation and the
potential for overly conservative estimates makes these shares an attractive
way to play the category.
Enterasys. ETS is trading at 2.0 times 2002 revenues and 23.6 times 2002
First Call estimates. We think this low valuation makes these shares
attractive.
However, we note ETS is more of an enterprise stock and the
weakness in that end market may still be an issue even with Cisco's
commentary.

Optical Names--We Think They Will Rally In Sympathy But May Prove Less
Sustainable. We recommend investors move from them into the data networking
names on strength in the optical names.

JUNIPER OPERATIONAL DETAIL
Juniper posted 3Q results that can only be described in one word, stunning.
Against the backdrop of the tragic event of September 11th and a slowing
economic backdrop, the company punched through our revenue and EPS forecast.

The quarter showed strength across the board with improvement to balance
sheet metrics as well as the operating results
. Furthermore, management's
commentary of no negative impact to their business in September forces us to
revisit our investment thesis on the name.

Juniper's Strong Performance Requires Us To Revisit Our Forecasts. Due to
Juniper's outperformance and their guidance commentary, we are raising our
EPS and revenue estimates. For 4Q00, we are raising our revenue estimate to
$203.7 million from $183.8 million and our EPS estimate to $0.10 from $0.07.
This brings our full year 2001 estimates to $939.7 million from $900 million
for revenue and to $0.53 from $0.46 for earnings. For the full year 2002, we
are raising our revenue estimate to $935.6 million from $810.0 million and
our earnings estimate to $0.48 from $0.35 per share. We are also raising our
2003 earnings estimate from $0.55 per share to $0.67 per share and our
revenue estimate to $1,183 million from $1,031 million.

Juniper Cruises Through Revenue Expectations. In 3Q, Juniper posted revenues
of $202 million, representing flat Q-Q growth. The company shipped 1,026
units, up 14% from the 902 units shipped last quarter. The company shipped
12,736 ports, up 15% Q-Q and clear evidence of positive trends in their edge
router products. On a geographical front, roughly 34% of revenues were
generated internationally, up from 28% last quarter
. In terms of customer
contribution, Juniper had two 10% customers, Qwest and WorldCom. Ericsson,
one of their key marketing partners, also contributed over 10% of revenues
.
As a point of reference, in 2Q only WorldCom and Ericsson were 10% or greater
contributors. Management commented that book-to-bill was greater than one.

Management Claims No Impact To Their Business In September. Probably one of
the most controversial comments from management was that there was no impact
to their business related to the tragic events of September 11th during that
month. That is a key statement as we believe market valuations and consensus
expectations fully discounted an assumptions that little business was
consummated in that month, the most important month for a company with a
September quarter. If this assumption proves untrue, then there is a concern
that estimates for carrier-related data communications companies might have
been cut too much. We balance this line of commentary with the
acknowledgement that Juniper did see strong performance in their
international business, logging a number of new customer wins from these
markets. By our calculations, Juniper's domestic business was down 9% Q-Q
but international was up 21% Q-Q, in a period where international sales tend
to be weak due to seasonality.


Management Also Claims That Carrier Capex Cuts Are Largely The Optical
Vendors' Problem And Not Theirs--We Agree. Management set out to address a
number of issues that they believe have revolved around the name. One issue
is whether the network core is dead for the next few years.
Management's
argument is that while their might be meaningful excesses at the optical
level, investments at the IP level have been more incremental and so there is
less of an overhang.
Specifically, management noted that while some ports on
routers are running at less than capacity, they do not believe there are idle
core routers being inventoried by service providers. Consequently, while
acknowledging that data networking is not immune to the secular trend toward
lower capex, they argued most of the impact is likely to remain with the
optical vendors


Juniper Continues To Expand Its Customer Base. We attribute a good portion
of Juniper's success in the quarter to their ability to continue to garner
contract wins.
At the end of the quarter, management noted that they
believed they had over 500 customers in 45 countries. Some of the wins
logged since their last earnings report are as follows:
* Alltel: Juniper was selected to provide a wide variety of routers for

deployment into their network. While no terms were provided, we would note

that Alltel extends into 24 states and services over one million customers.
* Clear Communications: Juniper was selected to supply routers into Clear

Communications, a New Zealand service provider. The customer used the

routers to upgrade its national IP core and International Transit core

network. The routers were deployed in Christchurch, Wellington, and

Auckland as well as Los Angeles.
* PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk: Indonesia's state-owned incumbent service

provider selected Juniper to help it upgrade its IP network. The vendor

is selling its M10 routers into the carrier. The carrier believes this

upgrade provides it with opportunities to roll-out a number of new

services.
* Zhejiang Telecom: Ericsson announced it had been selected a follow-on

contract with Zhejiang Telecom, a subsidiary of China Telecom.
The vendor

expects to sell Juniper's M160 routers to this client that wants to upgrade

their IP network to OC-48.
* Fusion Communications: Fusion, a carrier offering VoIP services in Japan,

selected Juniper's routers for its network. Fusion's network runs at OC-48

speeds and has 18 access points.
* Telekomunikacja Polska: On October 2, Telekomunikacja Polska, the Polish

PTT, announced it would deploy M160 routers within its network. The

contract was won by Juniper's marketing partner, Ericsson. This network

already had M-series routers in a number of POPs including Warsaw, Gdansk,

and Lublin. The new routers are expected to help the carrier to increase

its network speed to OC-48 initially, and to OC-192 in the future.
* RedIRIS: On October 9th, Juniper announced that it had been selected to

supply routers for deployment into the first phase of its high-speed IP

network. RedIris is the communications network for over 250 R&D

universities and facilities in Spain. The network serves over 1 million

people in 40 cities. The network roll-out involves the deployment of M20

and M40 routers in eight cities in Spain, which will be connected by OC-48

links. The completion of the network will allow the carrier to deploy IP

multicasting and DiffServ class of service to offer differentiated

services.

* DirectTV Broadband: DirectTV Broadband announced they intend to deploy

Juniper's routers throughout its North American domestic network. DirectTV

Broadband is a residential DSL provider. The carrier is deploying

Juniper's M160 Internet backbone routers within its Internet backbone and

M5 is the access portion of the network.
Margins Improved As Further Bolstering Results. Gross margins came in at
60.4%, up 20 basis points sequentially and exceeding our forecast by 30 basis
points.
Management attributed the solid performance to stable pricing and
the settlement of their obligations to their contract manufacturers
.

Operating margins came in at 20.4%, up from 16.9% in 2Q and beat our forecast
by over 460 basis points.
This outperformance comes even though G&A was
inflated by a $2 million provision for bad debt. Juniper's bottom-line
results came in at $0.10, beating forecasts by $0.03.



Juniper's Balance Sheet Strengthens In The Quarter. Juniper's balance sheet
points to the quality of their 3Q operating results. Their cash and
investments position increased by $70 million to almost $1.1 billion.
The
company's DSOs fell by 12 days to 50. This sharp improvement was in spite of
the fact the international component of their business, which generally has
longer collection cycles, surged in the quarter. Management attributed this
strength to the quality of their customer base and a disciplined approach to
cash collection. Deferred revenues also continued their upward trend of
recent quarters,
increasing by over $2 million.

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To: John Pitera who wrote (2500)10/18/2001 10:56:12 PM
From: karma   of 2849
 
nice grub and that is the most bullish quarterly results
we've seen all year!

WOW

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To: John Pitera who wrote (2500)10/18/2001 11:10:33 PM
From: John Pitera   of 2849
 
Juniper Networks -- SSB Factsheet


(JNPR)#
2S (Outperform, Speculative)
Mkt Cap: $7,754.8 mil.

October 17, 2001 COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Juniper Networks is a cutting-edge supplier of
TELECOMMUNICATIONS next-generation routers. Its M series product line

EQUIPMENT supported by the JUNOS software has helped the company
B. Alexander Henderson capture the number two market share in the core

Internet router market.

FUNDAMENTALS
EPS (12/00A) $0.53
EPS (12/01E) $0.53
EPS (12/02E) $0.48
P/E (12/01E) 43.3x
P/E (12/02E) 47.8x
TEV/EBITDA (12/01E) 16.7x
TEV/EBITDA (12/02E) 16.7x
Book Value/Share (12/01E) $2.44
Price/Book Value 9.4x
Dividend/Yield (12/01E) NA/NA
Revenue (12/01E) $939.7 mil.
Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth 35%
ROE (12/01E) 4.2%
Long-Term Debt to Capital(a) 58.3%
Convertible No

(a) Data as of most recent quarter
SHARE DATA RECOMMENDATION
Price (10/16/01) $22.95 Rating 2S
52-Week Range $243.00-$9.29 Target Price $26.00
Shares Outstanding(a) 337.9 mil.
First Call Consensus EPS: 12/01E $0.53; 12/02E $0.46; 12/03E $0.58

INVESTMENT THESIS
We believe Juniper Networks has top of the line offerings for the core and
edge of the network.
Despite the recent appreciation in JNPR shares off the
bottom, the performance in the quarter and the commentary from management
lead us to believe Juniper may have bottomed operationally and there is more
upside to the earnings estimates than downside risk.

RECENT RESULTS
Juniper Cruises Through Revenue Expectations. In 3Q, Juniper posted revenues
of $202 million, representing flat Q-Q growth. The company shipped 1,026
units, up 14% from the 902 units shipped last quarter. The company shipped
12,736 ports, up 15% Q-Q and clear evidence of positive trends in their edge
router products. On a geographical front, roughly 34% of revenues were
generated internationally, up from 28% last quarter. In terms of customer
contribution, Juniper had two 10% customers, Qwest and WorldCom. Ericsson,
one of their key marketing partners, also contributed over 10% of revenues.
Book-to-bill was greater than one.

Margins Improved As Further Bolstering Results. Gross margins came in at
60.4%, up 20 basis points sequentially and exceeding our forecast by 30 basis
points. Management attributed the solid performance to stable pricing and
the settlement of their obligations to their contract manufacturers.
Operating margins came in at 20.4%, up from 16.9% in 2Q and beat our forecast
by over 460 basis points despite inflated G&A expenses due to a $2 million
provision for bad debt. EPS came in at $0.10, beating forecasts by $0.03.

Management Claims No Impact To Their Business In September. The most
controversial comment from management was that there was no impact to their
business related to the tragic events of September 11th. We believe market
valuations and consensus expectations fully discounted an assumption that
little business was consummated in September. If this assumption proves
untrue, then there is a concern that estimates for carrier-related data
communications companies might have been cut too much. We balance this line
of commentary with the acknowledgement that Juniper did see strong
performance in their international business, logging a number of new customer
wins from these markets. By our calculations, Juniper's domestic business
was down 9% Q-Q but international was up 21% Q-Q, in a period where
international sales tend to be weak due to seasonality.

According To Management, Carrier Capex Cuts A Greater Problem For Optical
Vendors --We Agree. Management addressed the issue of whether the network
core is dead for the next few years. Management's argument is that while
there might be meaningful excesses at the optical level, investments at the
IP level have been more incremental and so there is less of an overhang.
Specifically, management noted that while some ports on routers are running
at less than capacity, they do not believe there are idle core routers being
inventoried by service providers. Consequently, while acknowledging that
data networking is not immune to the secular trend toward lower capex, they
argued most of the impact is likely to remain with the optical vendors.
Expanded Customer Base. We attribute a good portion of Juniper's success in
the quarter to their ability to continue to garner contract wins. At the end
of the quarter, management noted that they believed they had over 500
customers in 45 countries.

Strong Balance Sheet. Juniper's balance sheet points to the quality of their
3Q operating results. Cash and investments increased by $70 million to
almost $1.1 billion. The company's DSOs fell by 12 days to 50. Management
attributed this strength to the quality of their customer base and a
disciplined approach to cash collection. Deferred revenues also continued
their upward trend of recent quarters, increasing by over $2 million.
VALUATION
Shares of JNPR have rallied sharply since October 5, at aproximately 45x 2002
earnings and 32x 2003 earnings. We think Juniper can grow 35% over the next
3-5 years as data networking traffic continues to expand and as the data
networking sector continues to take share from traditional equipment
categories. Based on this growth rate, we think 2 times growth is
attainable, which implies a target of 70 times earnings in a healthy economic
backdrop. Even if we discount the growth rate back to 25%, this yields a 50
P/E on forward results. By the end of 2002, this yields a target of price of
$33. We believe our target price of $26, which is based on 55X 2002
estimates and 40 times 2003 estimates by the end of 2002 is reasonable and
defensible even if the growth target were as low as 20% annually.

RISKS
Juniper Networks has a number of risks. Our key concern is the timing of the
release of its new flagship product, the successor to the M160.


The timing
is unsure and management refuses to comment on unannounced products. We
believe Cisco's upgraded product offerings are heightening the pressure on
Juniper.
Another risk is the decline in capital expenditures by service
problems
. Carrier cap ex is expected to decline in the double digits for
2001 and 2002. Juniper derives all of its revenue from service provider
customers. Other risks include Juniper's premium valuation compared to its
competitors and the risks of competing against a large established player
such as Cisco.

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To: Tim Lamb who wrote (2484)10/18/2001 11:38:40 PM
From: John Pitera   of 2849
 
Covisant & F---Thanks Tim, I had read this and did not comment, not too much talk of this on the CC yesterday...
n'est pas...




posting it for posterity -g-

-----------

Ford Gears Up To Use Covisint For B-To-B Collaboration Sept. 3, 2001





Automaker plans to bring all of its 4,200 suppliers on board by the end of next year
By Steve Konicki



Ford Motor Co. will become the first automaker to move a major part of its collaborative business-to-business supply chain onto Covisint LLC, the auto exchange Ford unveiled with DaimlerChrysler AG and General Motors Corp. more than 18 months ago. Covisint will host an enhanced version of the automaker's Supplier Network, a private extranet used to manage more than $90 billion in procurement annually.
The move boosts Covisint's status as a model for industry-specific supply-chain exchanges, a role that's been called into question as automakers have been slow to adopt the exchange for key business processes. Industry sources say GM and DaimlerChrysler are close to signing similar agreements with Covisint.

Ford will launch a pilot in February with 200 of its largest suppliers; it expects to bring all 4,200 suppliers onto the exchange by the end of 2002. Covisint will handle a wide range of collaborative business, including the exchange of engineering information, real-time demand and inventory data, and details on orders and shipment requirements for highly engineered parts and raw materials.

Suppliers have been reluctant to commit to Covisint until automakers clarified their own intentions for the exchange. Dan Holland, E-business technology director for Delphi Automotive Systems Corp., says Ford's move validates his company's decision to use Covisint to manage supplier relationships. Sue Kobet, Ford director of value chain for B-to-B, wouldn't comment on the savings Ford expects from the exchange.

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To: John Pitera who wrote (2500)10/18/2001 11:54:13 PM
From: John Pitera   of 2849
 
3rd Quarter Preview: Optical Components
Telecommunications Equipment



October 17, SUMMARY
2001 * Excluding AGRA and AVNX, all of the companies we follow
have pre-announced CY 3Q earnings. Given this, investors
Timothy are likely to look through most of the earnings reports and
Anderson focus on the outlook commentary.
* In the handful of equipment companies that have reported
Sept. earnings, including JNPR and TLAB, we have heard a
subtle change in tone toward the positive. However, the
transport equipment commentary is somewhat conflicting, and
it is too early to draw conclusions.
* We are concerned about the outlook for photonics and
remain on the sidelines with most names for two reasons.
First, we don't think <b.next year's carrier capital spending
cuts are fully accounted for by telecom equipment suppliers.
Second, significant pre-releases from marquis companies like
NT and ONIS are likely to have slowed the rate of excess
inventory absorption, increasing the risk of a push-out to
the bottom timing in photonics.

SUMMARY VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION DATA

Earnings Per Share
Company (Ticker) Price FYE Rating Target LTGR Current Yr Next Yr
Agere (AGRA#) $5.00 Sep Curr 1S $8.00 NA ($0.44)E ($0.49)E
Prev 1S $8.00 NA ($0.44)E ($0.49)E
Avanex Corporation- $5.18 Jun Curr 3S $5.00 NA ($0.35)E NA
(AVNX) Prev 3S $5.00 NA ($0.35)E NA
Corning Inc. (GLW#) $9.01 Dec Curr 3H $10.00 10% $0.46E $0.00E
Prev 3H $10.00 10% $0.46E $0.00E
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $9.04 Jun Curr 3S $6.00 20% ($0.03)E NA
Prev 3S $6.00 20% ($0.03)E NA
Newport Corporation- $17.32 Dec Curr 3S $19.00 NA $0.75E $0.48E

(NEWP) Prev 3S $19.00 NA $0.75E $0.48E

OPINION
The majority of the companies we follow have pre-announced their September
quarter earnings. As a result we think investors are likely to focus on the
outlook. Below is a summary of the issues we think companies are likely to
address during the earnings calls.

PHOTONICS INDUSTRY SUMMARY
We think the difficulties surrounding photonics companies are well known, and
the majority of valuations are not compelling. Marquis optical systems
vendors like Nortel and ONI Systems have pre-announced weaker than expected
sales. Carriers are in the process of aggressively lowering their 2002
capital spending budgets. For photonics, the fundamentals remain challenging,
and visibility poor.
The impact of these issues has caused the shares for a
number of the photonic names to fall 95% from their 52 week highs.
Recognizing this, we also think the majority of the companies we follow,
excluding Agere Systems, have not yet reached compelling valuation levels.
Our position on the industry remains cautious over the intermediate term
largely predicated by anticipated sluggish spending by carriers in 2002 on
optical systems in both long-haul and metro applications.
Of the few telecom equipment vendors that have reported, we recognize a
subtle shift in tone, but it is still too early to draw definitive
conclusions. Interestingly, Tellabs, on its earnings call, suggested the hot
spots in carrier networks are starting to show. This implies carriers may
need to start to gradually increase their purchases of line cards. If true,
this would be a positive for component sales. In addition, JDS Uniphase
suggested it thinks the decline in photonic sales may be slowing.
On the
other hand, Juniper suggests sales into the transport portion of the network
(optical) would likely remain weak into 2002. (Juniper's products do not sell
into this part of the network, explaining why the company raised its
guidance, despite the comment.) Although these comments do not appear to
offer consistent direction, we acknowledge this is the first quarter we have
heard some form of constructive commentary at the OEM level. It suggests the
frozen state of the photonics industry may be starting to crack. However, we
don't think next year's carrier spending levels are reflected in these
comments. As a result, we think it is too early to draw definitive
conclusions. Furthermore, driven by a weak economic backdrop, declines in
wholesale demand, and the events of Sept. 11th, Broadwing said the December
quarter would be its most challenging yet this year. As a result, we remain
cautious about the outlook for photonics.

PHOTONICS INDUSTRY EARNINGS PREVIEWS
AGERE SYSTEMS
We think the company is likely to report at least in-line earnings. As has
been the case with most communications component suppliers, Agere is
suffering from weak end market demand in both Comm IC and Optical component
divisions. Driven by low gross margins, overall profitability, and the delay
in distribution of stock currently held by Lucent, Agere currently trades at
0.7 price/book ratio.
This is at the bottom end of the range for the
semiconductor industry.

Given this valuation backdrop, we find the name the
most attractive of the companies we cover at current levels.
We believe our modeling is conservative, and we think Agere is likely to
report earnings essentially in-line with consensus. During the company's
June quarter conference call, the company guided down 30-35% for September to
between $600-650 million. We have forecast the company sales slightly below
this guidance to $594 million. Based on this, our forecast for earnings is
for a loss of roughly $0.33 per share. This is conservative compared to the
First Call consensus average of a loss of $0.31. We expect Agere to report
earnings essentially in-line with this number.
Looking forward we continue to see fundamental recovery overhung by inventory
and weak end market conditions, but the situation is gradually improving.
Looking forward, we expect flat sales guidance for December as improving
inventory conditions are negated by falling end market demand. Specifically,
we expect photonic sales to decline modestly in the December quarter, and we
think semiconductor product sales are likely to start to show early signs of
recovering performance. We also expect management to guide to improving GPM
after September, which are expected to be roughly 0% in September. For
CY2001 (Agere has a September ending fiscal year ), we are modeling EPS
estimates of a loss of $0.74 per share, and for CY2002 we are forecasting a
loss of $0.27 per share assuming sales contract approximately 15% year over
year in the period.

AVANEX
Avanex likely to report earnings essentially in-line, but despite this and
relatively inexpensive valuation, end market concerns keep us cautious.
Avanex has not pre-released its quarterly outlook. Typically, management has
pre-released if its earnings have come in dramatically short of consensus
numbers. Based on this, we think the company is likely to report earnings
essentially in-line with the First Call consensus earnings average of a loss
of $0.08 per share. Such a report, we think would have a mild positive
impact on the company's shares. However, the name has jumped nearly 100% in
the past two weeks to $5 per share from a bottom of $2.35 per share. The
name is also trading at 50% over cash value of roughly $3.30 per share. With
few contract wins announced this quarter, and with optical component sales
likely to continue to slide into December, we remain cautious about the long
term prospects for the name.
Traction with Cisco is likely the highlight of the quarter, but, in our
opinion, the outlook for this name remains markedly risky. Avanex reports
earnings on October 22nd. We believe management is likely to keep guidance
tabled. For the positives, we expect management to focus on restructuring,
Fujitsu and Cisco. We think Avanex has made solid progress on its goal of
containing its costs and keeping its cash burn rate between $5-$10 million
per quarter. At the beginning of July the company announced it had entered
into an agreement with Fujitsu, a greater than 10% customer, to purchase
dispersion compensators based on the company's 'virtually imaged phased
array' concept. We note quantities and timing of sales were not specified,
but this contract suggests relations between the two companies remain solid.
Lastly, we expect management to focus on the company's relationship with
Cisco. Last quarter, Avanex announced it had gained a foothold with Cisco.
John Chambers, CEO of Cisco, indicated the company would exceed its earnings
forecast for the October quarter. We think Avanex may be a beneficiary, a
point we expect to hear Avanex management expound upon. Balancing these
positives are continued concerns about the outlook for optical components.
Nortel's September quarter revenue fell 25% below consensus. ONI Systems
pre-announced a 50% revenue short-fall. The ILECs are poised to lower
spending across the board in 2002, raising concern that the spending rates
for metro based optical equipment are likely to slow. With this kind of
backdrop, we think investors have time to continue to evaluate the name.

CORNING
With little data to work with from its pre-release, we think Corning is
likely to report earnings essentially in-line with consensus... Corning
reports earnings on Thursday the 18th, after the close. The conference call
is the following morning. The company pre-released the quarter indicating
its optical businesses continued to weaken through September, and that its
was taking the dramatic step of closing the majority of its optical fiber
manufacturing facilities and laying off an additional 4,000 employees.
The
First Call consensus earning average stands at $0.04 per share. Excluding
one estimate of $0.12 per share the average is $0.03, and we think the
company is likely to report earnings around this level. Our earnings
forecast stands at $0.02 per share.

...But investors are likely to focus entirely on the outlook, not the current
quarter.
As a result of the announcement, we don't think investors are
likely to focus on 3Q earnings. Rather, we expect the focus to center around
the outlook for fiber and photonics, and the amount of cost savings the
company expects to receive from its newly announced restructuring program.

Management to provide details on restructuring cost savings, and this
guidance could provide a mild short-term catalyst for the shares. The
company's earnings pre-release did not contain any cost savings detail,
management had not completed the benefit calculations. We expect more detail
in the earnings release. We estimate the company may save up to $300 million
in annualized benefits from the layoffs, and $80-$100 million from the
furlough of its fiber manufacturing employees for three months. In our
opinion, announced benefits beyond these levels may act as a mild catalyst
for the shares.
However, with no sales bottom in sight, we remain cautious about the name.
Concerning the outlook, we expect Corning to provide few positive data
points. Our field checks continue to suggest fiber inventories at carriers
are above normal levels, particularly for ILECs. Furthermore, the fiber
pricing environment remains soft, and carriers continue to lower their
aggregate 2002 spending levels.
According to our Japanese sources, pricing
on flat panel display glass has not bottomed, and display inventories are
above desired levels. Based on the world outlook for truck and auto sales,
we also expect continued mild pressure on the company's thin walled ceramic
substrates business for the next several quarters. Although we find it hard
to imagine the outlook for the company getting worse, the majority of
Corning's businesses are under pressure, with little visibility on a bottom
in sight. As a result, we remain cautious on the name.

JDS UNIPHASE
Ahead of plan restructuring initiatives could provide a penny or so of upside
to consensus, on lighter than originally forecast revenues. JDS Uniphase
pre-released its earnings in late September, indicating revenue would come in
around $325 million, below the consensus levels of around $345-$350 million.
Management also indicated it was ahead of plan with its restructuring
efforts. As a result, we think the company is likely to report earnings a
penny or two better than the First Call consensus average, and our estimate,
of a loss of $0.03 per share. The company reports earnings on October 25th,
after the close.
Expectations suggest 2002 is likely to be a period of minimal sequential
sales growth.
We expect investors to focus on the company's earnings
outlook. As a part of its lowered September quarter guidance, JDS Uniphase
management indicated it believes the company's sales are approaching levels
from which the company can grow.
Furthermore, management is counting on
sales to step-up sharply as the inventory overhang in the channel clears. We
recognize inventory restocking is likely to drive a bump in sales for the
company. However, we also think this is likely a one-time event. Our
optical systems sales expectations suggest 2002 is likely to be a period of
modest to no sequential sales growth.
Carriers, in both long haul and metro,
continue to materially cut their capital spending budgets for next year
, and
key JDS Uniphase customers like Nortel, continue to miss revenue targets. As
a result, we think the photonic industry fundamentals over the intermediate
term are difficult to get excited about. Furthermore, we do not think sales
have bottomed. Our sources indicate channel inventories of optical
components remain high, and product obsolescence has not yet become acritical factor.


The name appears much more attractive compared to a year ago, but is not
inexpensive. JDSU's sales are down roughly 70% from peak levels. In
addition, sales are down 45% from the June quarter. It is hard to imagine
this performance repeating. We recognize often the right time to step into a
components name is when the sequential rate of sales decline slows, and we
think the September quarter may represent this point. However, this strategy
only works if the valuation is compelling. In our view JDS Uniphase remains
expensive.
For example, even if we make aggressive sales and earnings
assumptions off our December quarter 2002 earnings forecast of $0.03 per
share, we don't see JDS Uniphase earnings more than $0.14 -$0.16 per share in
2003. Excluding interest income of $0.02 per share and roughly $1.30 in cash
per share on the balance sheet, this implies the company is trading at PE of
over 50x.
As a result, we remain cautious on the name.

NEWPORT CORPORATION
We are expecting sales to come in in-line with pre-announced expectations.
Newport pre-announced its 3Q earnings in September. Although our field
checks indicate the company continues to experience order cancellations, we
think sales have been solid enough for the company to hit its pre-announced
revenue guidance of $58-$62 million for 3Q. Based on this we expect earnings
to come in essentially in-line with the first call consensus earnings average
of $0.01 per share. The company reports earnings after the close on October
17th.
We recently launched coverage on Newport with a Neutral rating. Long-term we
believe NEWP is a well positioned company, one that can leverage its solid
balance sheet to play a key role in photogenic automation and 300 mm
semiconductor wafer process equipment upgrades. However, we see few near-
term growth catalysts. In particular, component manufacturing lines are
idle. As a result, we expect weak near-term demand for NEWP's manufacturing
equipment. Furthermore, capital equipment names lag in a cyclical recovery.
As a result, we think the risk of potential earnings disappointments over the
next 1-2 quarters remains high. On the earnings call, we expect management
to talk positively about the near-term opportunity for the name. Even if
management reiterates it can achieve flat quarter to quarter revenue growth,
we think the key turning point for this name will be to find signs of
stabilization in component manufacturing utilization. Until then, we are not
likely to view these shares more constructively.


QUARTERLY ESTIMATES PER SHARE DATA
Current Year* Next Year Next Year + 1
Ticker Period Current Previous Current Previous Current Previous
AGRA# 1Q $0.06A $0.06A ($0.25)E ($0.25)E NA NA
2Q $0.00A $0.00A ($0.12)E ($0.12)E NA NA
3Q ($0.17)A ($0.17)A ($0.08)E ($0.08)E NA NA
4Q ($0.33)E ($0.33)E ($0.04)E ($0.04)E NA NA
Year ($0.44)E ($0.44)E ($0.49)E ($0.49)E NA NA
AVNX 1Q ($0.10)E ($0.10)E NA NA NA NA
2Q ($0.09)E ($0.09)E NA NA NA NA
3Q ($0.08)E ($0.08)E NA NA NA NA
4Q ($0.08)E ($0.08)E NA NA NA NA
Year ($0.35)E ($0.35)E NA NA NA NA
GLW# 1Q $0.29A $0.29A NA NA NA NA
2Q $0.28A $0.28A NA NA NA NA
3Q $0.02E $0.02E NA NA NA NA
4Q ($0.13)E ($0.13)E NA NA NA NA
Year $0.46E $0.46E $0.00E $0.00E NA NA
JDSU 1Q ($0.03)E ($0.03)E NA NA NA NA
2Q ($0.01)E ($0.01)E NA NA NA NA
3Q $0.00E $0.00E NA NA NA NA
4Q $0.01E $0.01E NA NA NA NA
Year ($0.03)E ($0.03)E NA NA NA NA
NEWP 1Q $0.40A $0.40A $0.07E $0.07E NA NA
2Q $0.32A $0.32A $0.10E $0.10E NA NA
3Q $0.00E $0.00E $0.13E $0.13E NA NA
4Q $0.03E $0.03E $0.18E $0.18E NA NA

Year $0.75E $0.75E $0.48E $0.48E NA NA

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To: John Pitera who wrote (2498)10/19/2001 11:03:44 AM
From: wlheatmoon   of 2849
 
hi john,,,yes, i used to post quite a bit. it was a bit of a waste of time. oh, well,,,it was fun.

regarding ACAM,,,it's expensive, but this smallpox thing is real. read in USA Today below. not many firms working on this, and ACAM has a contract already. NVAX is another interesting one. i'd expect more media coverage on this issue. there'll be those who want to bring back smallpox vaccinations. probably not an unwise move.


usatoday.com 

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