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 Strategies & Market Trends | Steve's Channelling Thread

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To: Jeff Guy who wrote (13408)3/21/2001 11:32:30 AM
From: Zeev Hed   of 30051
 
Hey, you are too fast for me, I am still waiting for reentry into ELON (g). In the meanwhile, I reentered GMST, I did not get my $2 discount, but at least $1-5/8 in at $33.5. I also reentered DPMI at $43-3/4 and VECO at $43.25 (my last selling on that one).

Zeev

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To: Steve Lee who started this subject3/21/2001 11:35:45 AM
From: stockmarket14   of 30051
 
Zeev: What are your rationale of turnips reading of NAZ minirally to 2388 by mid April? Will this mini rally be derailed by the start of bad 1Q earning announcements starting in April? Will the expected midterm Uncle Al "unexpected" rate cut in April derail your turnips reading? Thanks.

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To: stockmarket14 who wrote (13410)3/21/2001 11:41:28 AM
From: Zeev Hed   of 30051
 
I have the top between April 18 and the 20th roughly, a number of catalysts, first, if we reach 2388, it is a very strong resistance, IMHO. Second, as you mentioned, by the 20th, we should start and get first Q reports out, and they may be ugly. Last, Japan's banks will be in the process of opening their kimonos, and put pressure on all markets. Cycles also fit.

Zeev

In edit, VECO just went for another buck here at $44.25. Also sold in "disgust" and at big loss AMGN at $57, this is $12 that this one "owes" me, but I am not in a rush to get it back yet.

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13411)3/21/2001 11:53:14 AM
From: Alex MG   of 30051
 
Also keep in mind April 15th (tax deadline) if we get a rally... The last two years selloffs occurred on the exact date because some people wait until the last minute to raise cash to pay taxes... Although this year may be a little different, probably less taxes owed because of the market performance for 2000, but I still own a large chunk myself.

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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (13396)3/21/2001 12:03:42 PM
From: Bruce A. Thompson   of 30051
 
Hi Hank,

6 1/2 + 1 and 6.875 + 1.

Hope this helps

BT

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To: Steve Lee who started this subject3/21/2001 12:17:23 PM
From: Crimson Ghost   of 30051
 
Looks like this morning was not the trough after all. But NAZ and especially NAZ 100 holding up very well indeed.

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13411)3/21/2001 12:23:24 PM
From: Mike M   of 30051
 
Zeev, you're predicting the end of a rally that has yet to begin <g>. We are clearly still looking for something to bounce off... What do you figure the odds are that we start the long overdue rally today?

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To: Don Green who wrote (13074)3/21/2001 12:25:58 PM
From: Jdaasoc   of 30051
 
Don:
You brought up the subject earlier that if DOW broke last year's intraday low that the 18 year old bull market was over etc etc.

Well it happened this morning

any additional insight.


My feeling is that banks will crap out then AG acts agreesively.

john

PS for information purposes S&P just broke through 1200 day moving average and 1500 day MA is 1020

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To: Jdaasoc who wrote (13416)3/21/2001 12:37:56 PM
From: Don Green   of 30051
 
John

Yes the Big Bad 18 year old Bull market is D E A D! Technically speaking, I am looking for maybe 9200 on the Dow near-term.

Still no real panic, everyone waiting for a buy signal which means there is a lot more downside from here.

Could be real ugly between now and 15 April.
stockcharts.com 

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To: Mike M who wrote (13415)3/21/2001 12:49:13 PM
From: Zeev Hed   of 30051
 
Could be, but I think we need a negative trigger like a "bad BTB in the semi-equip. That is tomorrow. During the days, the internals are deteriorating and worst, the Dow broke 9600, which the turnips did not have as a target until the post Aprilrally, a close here under about 9580, will be extremely bad, for the longer term. We actuallty aklready have a Dow theory bear market, a late confirming indicator, and as I mentioned about 10 day ago, the Dow is indeed acting much worst than the Naz. Having said all that, i just gt back into IDPH here at $45-7/8, since a rational stop loss just under $44 should be protective, but a nice run to $55 could ery well develop if indeed today is the low.

I also just reentered JDSU at $22.125.

Zeev

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