Technology StocksCDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST!

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1792)3/8/2011 2:13:11 PM
From: Eric L
1 Recommendation   of 1809
A Nostalgic Stroll Down Our Various Qualcomm Message Boards' Memory Lane ...

Come, let's stroll
Stroll across the floor
Come, let's stro-oh-oh-oll
Stroll across the floor
Now turn around, [warrior] baby
Let's stroll once more

Nostalgia: QCOM Eleven Year Price History from 1998 (Split Adjusted)

Calendar Year    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008 
============= ===== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
High Price 4.21 92.52 100.00 44.69 26.67 27.43 44.99 46.60 53.01 47.72 56.88
Low Price 2.36 3.27 25.75 19.16 11.61 14.79 26.67 32.08 32.76 35.23 28.16
Year End Price 3.24 88.06 41.09 25.25 18.20 26.97 42.40 43.08 37.79 39.35 35.83

QCOM Stock Splits
08/04: 2-for-1 split
12/99: 4-for-1 split
05/99: 2-for-1 split
02/94: 2-for-1 split


Below is an excerpt from a post in progress in response to one of our mates who posted to me in another forum and who made the somewhat erroneous statement "Such nostalgia, sigh. Ramsey has been gone for longer than he was present,"

>> Perhaps we should nostalgacize for a moment and do a sanity check on the statement you made (above) about Ramsey to see whether your math is in error or your facts are..

Maurice Winn (aka Mquarice, Mq, etc.), seasoned cyberwarrior extraordinair and grand master of the rant, established the 1st CDMA, Qualcomm message board on Silicon Investor in early April 1996, and so far as I'm aware that was the 1st Qualcomm message board established on the Internet and it focused for most of its early going on the initial IS-95 cdmaOne market tests and trials at Airtouch in SoCal, BAM in Trenton NJ. Hutchinson Wampoa in Hong Kong, and STK in Korea.

Maurice's real life friend Ramsey Su who joined SI on January 1 1996 3 months before Mq was (excluding Mq) the 3rd poster to the board and he made his 1st of many posts (excluding those not lost) to it on April 11, 1996, 2 days after Mq established (or actually renamed) the board and about a month before I bumped into it and started looking over the shoulders of its early occupants even though I hadn't yet anted up my modest SI dues or invested in QCOM which I started to track seriously from both a potential investing perspective and a vocational matter in November 1994 after 1st seeing CDMA demonstrated in AT&T Labs in NJ. Ramsey was a regular poster to that board throughout its life cycle which began to draw to a close within a few months of Craig Schilling founding of the QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range SI board in September 1996. Almost 1400 of CDMA, Qualcomm's 1793 posts to date were originated in 1996 while 300 were added in 1997, and 100 since then by a few of us that occasionally keep CDMA, Qualcomm's lights burning with small talk and banter. Ramsey made the 1st of his 1200 posts to Craig's QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range) SI board on November 8, 1996

While 1996 had opened with only a handful of cdmaOne commercial subscribers (virtually all on Hutchinson Wampoa's Hong Kong Network) it closed the year with slightly over 1 million, and although well over 90% of those were on SKT's network in Korea where IS-95 had been successfully commercialized due to an around the clock effort by Qualcomm, Samsung, and SKT (in particular), in the US 360° Communications, AirTouch, then Sprint PCS and finally Bell Atlantic NYNEX Mobile, had finally commercially launched cdmaOne. Despite this QCOM stock which had opened 1996 at $2.60 (spli adjusted)) closed the year at $2.49, down from its '96 open of $2.60 and Qualcomm message boards still were relatively sparsely populated.

In 1998 14,000 posts were added to SI's primary Qualcomm board by an increased number of posters as the ITU became increasingly serious about selecting a sanctioned 3G IMT-2000 radio access network technology with Qualcomm (and newly formed 3GPP2's) CDMA for FDD spectrum and ETSI's and 3GPP's competing W-CDMA FDD technology being the leading candidates. What Ken Woo of ATT late in the year dubbed the "Virtual Holy War" was being acted out in the background and the principle protagonists were Ericsson and Qualcomm who had been litigating over IPR for several years. A significant event took place on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor day, December 7, 1998. On that day the ITU warned that "CDMA-based RTT proposals for IMT-2000 could be excluded from further consideration if an IPR stalemate [was] not resolved by the year end." and that if it wasn't they would "only consider RTT technologies for IMT-2000 based on TDMA technology" ...

In that year QCOM had traded as high as $4.50 and closed at $3,16 [up $0.67, +27% YoY]. In anticipation of an Ericsson/Qualcomm settlement QCOM rose steadily in Q1 1999. They settled on March 25 ...

The prior evening QCOM closed at $5.45 (+73% CYTD] and it closed March at $7.77 (+146% CYTD]. The Ericsson accord -- branded as 'Ericsson's capitulation' by dedicated cyberwarrirs -- was the defining event that attracted a flood of new QCOM investors and a new breed of posters, many of whom had little regard for netiquette, to SI's Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) board and others that had been founded more recently on Yahoo, Raging Bull, and TMF (initiated in April 1999) Regardless of persuasion we all caught a big bluebird on Wednesday December 29 of that year when Walter Piecyk, then with Paine Webber placed a $1,000 price target on QCOM ...

Qualcomm Climbs by $30 Billion After Comments: The developer of mobile telephone technology saw its value rise by more than 30 percent, or $30 billion, Wednesday after a bullish analyst report said the meteoric stock could hit $1,000 a share next year. The San Diego-based company's stock soared $156 to $659 a share after the comments by brokerage firm PaineWebber re-stoked the raging investment fire that has made Qualcomm one of the Nasdaq's best-performing stocks of 1999. The surge continued in the after-hours market, with Qualcomm trading around $700. The rise followed weeks of double-digit daily gains that have added tens of billions of dollars to Qualcomm's market capitalization, which now stands at nearly $128 billion, more than new economy darling Yahoo! Inc.'s $119 billion. [AOL News]

On Tuesday 12/28/99 QCOM opened at [SA] $65.97, dipped to $58.75, and closed at $62.88. Walter P's bluebird hit the next day propelling QCOM to a Wednesday closing high of $82.38 on 117,999,200 shares traded. traded as high as $$2.52 on Thursday on 128,995,200 shares traded, closing the year Friday at $88.06 on 72,674,200 shares with the Nasdaq CI closing the year at 4069. QCOM opened Y2K on 1/3/2000 at $99.63 and shortly after briefly hit $100, closing at 89.66 on 91,350,400 shares before its skid began the next day,

SI's QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range (now Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) board accumulated almost 40,000 new posts in '99 from longs, shorts, in between, and outright whackadoodles.. Chit-chat and food fights (the most celebrated of which featured Mq v, the mixed gender day-traders and which also resulted in his temporary suspension from SI -- as opposed to civil but heated debate often became the order of the day and wading through the all too many posts that added little or nothing to an individual's mobile wireless knowledge base had become an onerous task and a time waster.

For the benefit of those of us that continued to retain a long view of Qualcomm and QCOM, Herr Su founded SI's The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 Company board on May 21, 1999 with "a few simple rules" (No Cheerleading, No Stock Quotes, No Off Topic Posts, and No Discussion/Disclosure Of Personal Holdings). After SI created the option of creating (or converting established boards to) moderated boards we decided to keep the board unmoderated, but as new posters with little respect for all or some of the established rules wandered on to the board in mid-2000 Ramsey established SI's Qualcomm Moderated Thread whose title added please read rules before posting. The header noted: "This is a discussion forum, not a chat room. This forum will be moderated by a panel" and it added three new rules: Use Private Message for All "Thank You for Good Posts" And Messages of No Common Interest; Please Use Discretion In Linking Or Copying Articles That May Have Marginal Correlation to QCOM; and Please Ignore Rather Than Debate IQ-Challenged Posters).

A few weeks later in Ramsey's original Qualcomm 'rules' boards post 13526, Eric Jhonsa, now a TMF writer quipped ...

"And so this once-great board fades into oblivion, put to an end by the discontinuous innovation known as Ramsey Su's Moderated Qualcomm Thread. It closes not with a bang, but..." .

To which John Goren replied:

"The board was killed by too many stupid posts. Will the last one out please close the door.".

As will happen, and while for some time most posters to the new Rules board observed the new protocol, gradually many migrated over from Craig's old board and some were less diligent in observance of them. In addition others who had initially posted in other forums elsewhere were attracted, and some apparently never bothered to read Ramsey's Rules of Order. The cumulative post count at 2000 end was 5848, 17696, 2001, 30591 in 2002, 38672 in 2003, and 43955 in 2004. Ramsey himself had gotten somewhat tired of cat herding and lost interest in QCOM but he continued to post on his own board well into 2004. More frequently he began to post on Real Estate boards.

Ramsey made his last visit to the 2nd board he founded on SI on 04-30-09, but in October 2008 he made the following post {his 1st since October 2007) on it:

Hello all, greetings from Methoni. I got the following message from "Dave".[Are you moderating here? If not, let's get someone to replace you. Way too much political noise there.]. I nominate slacker as the replacement. Ramsey

A week later he reappeared and posted to Slacker:

OK, it is official then. My powers as thread Nazi have been stripped. I wish you all the best. It seems decades ago that we had one of those shareholders lunches.Thank you slacker for taking over. Just a word of advice, when in doubt, just ban Maurice and Koplik. :-). Ramsey

Craig's old unmoderated QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range board still served a valuable purpose. It was a place for many who observed all or at least some of Ramsey's Rules to post in a manner and fashion outside the protocols of the Moderated board, and some of its old constituents also posted there as an alternative. On 07/16/2006 with its cumulative post count standing at 143,591 Quincy (a regular Qualcomm poster from the early SI days) commenced moderation noting:

This subject is now moderated for the sole purpose of preventing a long stream of jibberish with no educational purpose to the discussion at hand.

For all practical purposes that sounded the death knell for the board although some 8,000 posts were subsequently made there in the almost 5 subsequent years. In the last 15 months, however, it attracted only 8 posts.

One Qualcomm board of some consequence has been added since. In July 2007 'manalagi' (Paul) founded The New QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range board "a fun gathering place for people investing in Qualcomm" and home of the annual Toaster contest. While it is moderated its rules are somewhat the antithesis of Ramsey's as more recently slightly modified by Slacker: Cheerleading is OK; Stock quote is fine; Discussion of short term price movement is all right; Off topics posts are on topics; Discussion/disclosure of personal holdings if you wish. Paul does add one important rule: No flaming, No personal attack, no foul language, no spam.

For the ultimate in unmoderation and only loosely connected to Qualcomm there is. of course, your The New Qualcomm - write what you like thread founded way back on 9/7/1999 ...

Subject 30581

That was an exhausting stroll, but almost as much fun as doing it in real life to the Diamond's rendition back in 1957.

One final note. In late 1998 I folded my long standing NOK position accumulated on dips since its '94 US IPO on NYSE and appreciated 300+% to establish my initial QCOM position. Although I was an SI member for several years prior I never posted on Qualcomm boards while I was still a foot soldier in the mobile wireless industry because of numerous NDAs my company was party to several of which I had originated including those at BAM, NYNEX, BAM-NYNEX, Omnipoint, and Sprint PCS. My 1st posts were made to Craig's boards in early '99 and you were the 1st individual to welcome me by PM shortly afterward. Thank you.


- Eric -

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To: Eric L who wrote (1794)3/8/2011 7:50:34 PM
From: Maurice Winn
1 Recommendation   of 1809
Briefly, SI messed up and lost the first board which I started before this one. I forget the process but there were a few weeks of posts missing. I think they were changing servers or something. At the time, it seemed a shame but I guess it doesn't really matter now as it's in archeological time. Internet time was a peculiar phenomenon which lasted only a year or two.

I'll read through the rest of your interesting ramble through archeological time when I have got a bit more time and a nice cup of tea.

One of my all-time favourite posts, <
To: Maurice Winn who wrote (11) 4/16/1996 9:55:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su 16 of 1795

Better get up, milk the sheep, and take a look at your screen. What time is it down under anyway. ... continued...

That was early in the days of post-Compuserve internet and was great fun, while being highly profitable.


Edit.... ah, here is some detail on the missing stream: <To: Brad_Dryer who wrote (30) 3/27/1998 9:57:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn of 1795

Hello Brad. Where did the old thread go? Have the early days died? There was lots of lovely archival information here. Do we need to keep threads alive or they vanish without trace? This was from a couple of years ago. If you try the url below, it doesn't work.
Best wishes,

To: Maurice Winn (29 )
From: Brad Dryer Wednesday, Apr 17 1996 2:40PM EST
Reply # of 1694

All subjects get archived. Because of a miscalculated overlap, there was a few hour period in which the old CDMA subject disappeared.

It's fixed now...

You can jump to the subject from here if you type /Subject-2604 after /investor on the line at the top of your browser. (so it looks like )

Brad ( go

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To: Eric L who wrote (1794)3/8/2011 11:45:38 PM
From: Maurice Winn
1 Recommendation   of 1809
Having now strolled through those decades and centuries, yes, that was a pretty good summary.

Yes, the Moonies were annoying and SI was never particularly good at ditching the actual miscreants, resulting in me being banned for a while.

Meanwhile, when 1 million CDMA subscribers was achieved, it did seem pretty good, but look at it now with numbers in the billions cerfing around Cyberspace with many if not most using CDMA in various flavours. OFDM is now coming on stream [after initially frightening the Siers until Flarion was bought].

And the fun has just begun.

Because of the high and badly managed data charges, few people use mobile cyberspace and the devices are only now being produced en masse in a form suitable for regular humans. But there is still no good way to view them in daylight. Mirasol should start fixing that problem as well as battery life next year.

By the beginning of 2013, life in mobile Cyberspace should really be underway. We are still in the early stages of the biggest revolution humans have ever embarked on. Bigger really than biological history since the invention of DNA, but some people would think I'm exaggerating.


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From: Maurice Winn9/12/2011 2:46:19 PM
1 Recommendation   of 1809
Mq, you asked back in 1996 in the introduction, "Will China be the biggest market for CDMA?" It has taken a decade and a half, but finally, the answer is yes, if we measure it by Qualcomm revenue: <China has already become Qualcomm’s top market, accounting for 29 percent of revenue last year. In other emerging markets, however, the company is still trying to persuade merchants to push legit smartphones with Qualcomm chips rather than lower-end knockoffs. In large part, that’s because Qualcomm-powered devices can be expensive: An HTC phone unveiled in late August, for instance, offers glasses-free 3D-viewing and costs more than $700. “Prices need to come down for devices to get out into the mass market,” says Jacobs. >

You also said recently that Cyberphone prices won't come down so much as go both up and down at the same time as people seek more features right up to the full scale Anita [tm] versions.

The mass market Model T era "any colour as long as it's black", is coming to an end. Economies of scale exist, with cyberphones soon to be selling by the billion. Already 10 million at a time is normal and 100 million a year if we include a wider range of DeVices. Copying Apple is the wrong idea. Doing things they don't, such as making an outdoor mirasol DeVice with Globalstar and wifi links is better.

With end of the Model T era, people will be wanting a wider range of vehicles. There will be the high end Rolls Royce, Jaguar, Ferrari, BMW, Audi, Cadillac, Lexus. There will be the mid range fleets of Camry, Commodore, the SUVs, the vans, the light trucks, There will be the "get you to the supermarket and work" cheap city commuter options. Don't forget motorcycles.

Prices will be going up as well as down. Anita [tm] features will be included in the high end first, working their way down to the low end.

The car industry is fairly comparable. People want fashionable personal transport options, not just a standard tool for getting around. They don't need either cars or cyberphones to last for decades. Technology changes quickly and fashions do too. For cars, 10 years is a long time. For Cyberphones, replacements every 2 years is more likely. And people don't have a parking problem for Cyberphones, so they'll own a motorcycle version, a minicar, a high speed touring saloon, a utility vehicle, a people mover, a bicycle, a couple of spares in case one breaks down and so one is handy in the car, at the office, in the kitchen, in the living room.

Those devices will connect via wifi if available, or femtocell, mini, city, or over kilometres in rural areas or up to Globalstar over oceans, the hinterlands or from airliners cruising 10 km high at 1000 km per hour.


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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1797)9/12/2011 3:17:12 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer
2 Recommendations   of 1809
Now, if the Chinese would just allow their currency to float against the dollar, that 29% of Qualcomm sales figure would be about 10% larger (in sales after currency exchange translation).


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From: Maurice Winn1/9/2012 5:01:39 PM
2 Recommendations   of 1809
Nearly 15 years later:

<Will CDMA succeed in Los Angeles [at last]?
How is CDMA going in Hong Kong, Korea, Trenton? Do people like it?
Will China be the biggest CDMA market?
What technical developments are going on?
Has Nextwave Telecom bid too much in PCS spectrum auctions?
Will notebook computers with built in CDMA phone take the world by storm?

Will you get rich from CDMA and Qualcomm?

Related topics: Eudora - the email you are probably using
Globalstar - the satellite phone system

A couple of days ago, for the first time, I used a Sierra USB "stick" HSPA in my little netbook. It is very good. But there are now millions of netbook/notebook computers [same thing just a slightly different size] with built in CDMA with the iPad the current world champion, selling by the million.

Since those faltering steps back in the mid 1990s, CDMA-powered "Smartphones" are now the dominant cultural development on Earth. The pdQ was the initial effort. The pace is quickening as $trillions are at stake. The automobile industry is now taking second cultural place to mobile Cyberspace.

It is being recognized that it is not just the cost of fuel and the financial crisis which is pushing aside the century-long love affair with cars. Young people are Cerfing into Cyberspace. From Zygote in 1996 to Zeitgeist in 2011. Things don't come any bigger than this.

Meanwhile, Eudora is fondly remembered and I live in hope... social media is a mess. Eudora could rescue us from the chaos.

Globalstar failed dismally. There was total mismanagement of marketing combined with dead satellites due to bung design. They were reduced to simplex data transmission. SPOT being fairly successful in that.

Now though, the second Globalstar constellation is being launched, albeit with a momentum wheel design fault. Hopefully they fix that BEFORE they launch the rest. Their marketing ideas are still defective, but not as bad as the first effort last century. There is also a spectrum dispute with the FCC and other problems too such as the local yokels resisting Globalstar gateways.

Swarms of people have become very rich from CDMA and the businesses which have been enabled by it.

Now LTE is gearing up, running on OFDM = orthogonal frequency division multiplexing which was just a gleam in Flarion's and other's eyes in Y2K but is now gearing up to take over from CDMA. Unfortunately, it, like W-CDMA, is burdened with GSM Cartel royalties of about 12% compared with CDMA's 4% average which did a better job, cheaper. Qualcomm's OFDM technology with low royalties was rejected by too many people to go it alone. Fortunately, even 8% extra royalty on the devices is not much over the 2 year total cost of ownership, so it's not such a big deal. The whining in the early years about CDMA's "excessive" royalty of 5% has been shown to be absurd by both spectrum prices and the success of CDMA.


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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1799)1/19/2012 2:45:04 PM
From: Maurice Winn
2 Recommendations   of 1809
Specifically on China [and Asia] < Editor's Note: In a recent SEC filing, Qualcomm revealed that of its total fiscal year 2011 revenues, Mainland China comprised 32%, South Korea 19%, Taiwan 17%, and Japan 8%.
> China is obviously the biggest CDMA market. So yes Mq, you were right to think China would become the biggest CDMA market. A trade war with China as a result of the blockade on Iran would not be good.


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From: Maurice Winn3/13/2012 12:41:55 PM
2 Recommendations   of 1809
16 years after this stream bubbled out of the ground to join the mighty river of Cyberspace and 18 years after first buying QCOM in 1994 [having missed the IPO in 1991 in the pre-Cyberspace era] and 21 years after first going to visit Qualcomm in August 1991, and 23 years after first thinking that Fourier transforms could be used in cellphones to squeeze more into the spectrum, Mq has sold quarter of his QCOM shares at $64.76.

Thank you to all the great people who developed Qualcomm from an idea way back in 1985. It's one of those things where reality caught up with imagination, though it did take a decade longer than I thought it would do.

I have sold a few at other times to reduce margin and to get some money for other things and this sale is to get money to develop from a paddock It's not so much that I have lost confidence in Qualcomm, it's that the opportunity to develop innovative milk processing and infant formulae for improved infant nutrition where mothers are unable to breast feed their babies is good. If somebody wants to put in $60 million, a large shareholder is needed to build the factory which is ready to go.


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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1801)3/13/2012 7:55:29 PM
From: badger3
   of 1809
sounds like you are taking some profits from your Q investment and trying to make this a better world to live in. I think IJ & team would approve.

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To: badger3 who wrote (1802)3/14/2012 5:45:54 AM
From: Maurice Winn
1 Recommendation   of 1809
That's always my aim. So far, so good, a few glitches like Globalstar notwithstanding. Even that involved a lot of solid groundwork, and spacework, to get the next iteration ready to succeed where the first failed.


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