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To: Richard Green who wrote (59)6/13/1996 1:58:00 PM
From: Andy Yamaguchi   of 7818
 
Richard, check some of the posters in STMD, HMTT, RDRT, the down cycle for disk drive industry is coming. Every one including IOMG is going to get hit. Do not think about IOMG taking over hard drives. QUANTUM sells most product to OEM. Look at how many zip IOMG is selling. Best shoot is 5 Mil this year. However, QUANTUM alone sells 20 Mil disk drive a year. 100 MB zip is still too small comparing to 2-4 G hard disk drives.

Good luck.

Andy

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote (62)6/13/1996 8:13:00 PM
From: Richard Green   of 7818
 
Andy, I've heard the excess drive capacity scenario elsewhere, would appreciate a history lesson with examples. Like Mark (I think it was Mark), I remember the February rumors of the demise of PCs. All the evidence would point to a buying opportunity. Talk me out of it. And Dante, the support bent but didn't break. Thanks. RG

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To: Richard Green who wrote (63)6/13/1996 10:21:00 PM
From: James B. Barnes   of 7818
 
Richard, right now I'm with you. I think there is a lot of fear out there presently. I'd like to see more concrete evidence than one company having trouble. Probably by the time I see two or three, it will be too late, but for yesterday and today I summoned the courage to be a buyer. We'll all know later on if it was a dumb move.

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To: Will Cunningham who wrote (60)6/14/1996 1:49:00 PM
From: Richard Green   of 7818
 
Will, I think you could call the support 47, I hope so anyway!

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To: Richard Green who wrote (65)6/15/1996 4:38:00 PM
From: Stephen Leung   of 7818
 
Bottoming out?

The tax ruling against Seagate started the initial ball, then poor earnings report from Quantum and other harddisk makers made it worst. I hope the bottom is near. I bought 200 shares at 59 after reading reports in magazines and several analysts that this stock was cheap at $60. Should have bailed out when it hit $65.00.

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To: Andy Yamaguchi who wrote (62)6/16/1996 2:13:00 AM
From: Matthew Shaun Koch   of 7818
 
Like it or not the Zip is nipping into sales for Quantum and Seagate.
I had the choice of augmenting my already strained hard-drive by buyeing a 200 dollar HD or paying 200 bucks for a Zip and have the more memory easey whenever I wanted it. I chose the zip. I suspect that the margins on after market HDs is much better than the margins for HDs sold to OEMs. Zips and Jazs are eating into this market. Companies that thrive on after-market sales to pad the profit lines will take a hit this and following quarters because of the IOMG effect. And, Andy you totaly neglected to mention the effect of Jaz sales. Why would anyone buy a HDD when you could have a drive that is portable and which can be added to permanently. I have been picking over which of the HDD makers to short. My only concern is that one of them might get bought out while I'm shorting. Seagate is the most diversified in it's products. Quantum has hit bottom for now. Western Digital hhmmm... maybe. I am not an IOMG shareholder but you are a fool if you don't give full due to how the company is changing the dynamics of the storage market. Don't be a naysayer simply because you missed the bandwagon. And I am not long on IOMG, I just know a good company when I see one. Shaun Koch

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To: Matthew Shaun Koch who wrote (67)6/16/1996 3:57:00 PM
From: wesley ebisuzaki   of 7818
 
> Like it or not the Zip is nipping into sales for Quantum and Seagate
> I had the choice of augmenting my already strained hard-drive by
> buyeing (sic) a 200 dollar HD or paying 200 bucks for a Zip ...

Do the math:

For $200 I can get a 1.6 GB hard drive.

For $200 I can get a Zip drive with 1 zip disk (100MB). Buying
15 more zip disks (to get 1.6GB) will cost 15*15 = $225 for a
total price of $425.

For $400 I can get two 1.6 GB hard drives. On the other hand ,I
would need 1 zip drive plus 31 extra disks for a net cost of $665.

How is the zip drive nipping into the sales of SEG, QNTM and WDC?
If you need disk space, only a hard drive will do. The zip is selling
well because people need to transport data and floppies are too small.


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To: Dantes who wrote ()6/16/1996 4:37:00 PM
From: Xavier B.   of 7818
 
DON'T KEEP OR BUY ANY SHARES OF HARDDRIVE MANUFACTERS!!!!!
There is no future for this business....
Quite everybody now has a big Harddrive and is only going to change CPU or its motherboards in future. You just have to ask yourself the following questions: How many harddrives did I buy in the past.(in my case nearly every year; from 20MB ...to...2GB). Next question: When am I going to buy my next Harddrive. Answer: I just can't answer as I don't think that I will ever need more than 1 GB (especially as Internet growth that fast and you find more and more on the Internet...the more you find on Internet, the less you need to buy huge programs to install on your harddisk....

Any comments to this....!!!!

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To: Xavier B. who wrote (69)6/16/1996 10:35:00 PM
From: James B. Barnes   of 7818
 
If you're assuming most computer users in the future will never need more than 1G, I'd think twice.

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To: Xavier B. who wrote (69)6/17/1996 3:11:00 AM
From: Chuck Kung   of 7818
 
Wrong, not everyone has upgraded their hard drives and not everyone
in this world owns a workstation or PC, only 30% of U.S. homes have a PC and that's just the U.S. There is much global growth left for PCs/workstations. And, I disagree what you said about the inverse relation between internet growth and hard drive capacity needs.

I don't think that I will ever need more than 1 GB (especially as Internet growth that fast and you find more and more
on the Internet...the more you find on Internet, the less you need to buy huge programs to install on your harddisk....


The more you find on the net, the more you download and store locally.
In other words, more data is avaliable for replication. Also,
I recall people once saying that they would never need more than 20Meg.

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