Technology Stocks | DELL


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From: HeyRainier4/6/2006 2:25:11 PM
   of 176342
 
It's a sad state when almost a week goes by on this board and nobody posts about the company. Guess that means Dell's been forgotten. Or it's turned to a value stock. Or both.

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To: HeyRainier who wrote (175487)4/8/2006 1:16:51 PM
From: Dan3   of 176342
 
Re: Guess that means Dell's been forgotten.

Dell took a real hit to the gut when Intel embraced Apple so publicly and enthusiastically. Dell has been looking over the hill and boring, with Apple expected to take share from it.

Things might be getting a little more exciting, though. Picking up AMD as a supplier could change all that overnight. AMD mysteriously pulled in foundry production at FAB 7 by 6 months and increased this years ramp rate at their new FAB 36 by 54%. It's hard to imagine why there was a need for so much additional output at AMD unless there are Dell orders in place.

Dell has been locked out of about a third of the profitable mid range and high end server markets because it had only Xeon on Intel platforms with which to compete. Dell didn't have access to AMD's "plug and play up to 16-way" Opteron platform. Dell's also been without a 64-bit notebook (other than 10lb P4 monsters).

And that would mean Dell is entering several new segments while not giving up anything in its existing markets. It would mean a guaranteed major jump in market share, revenue, and profits.

OTOH, the last 37 times it looked like Dell was going to move up to AMD, nothing happened - but it was also true that until next quarter, there's been no capacity at AMD for Dell to take whether they wanted it or not. Now that's changing.

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To: Dan3 who wrote (175488)4/8/2006 2:28:32 PM
From: stockman_scott   of 176342
 
IMO, DELL's former Vice Chairman Mort Topfer isn't on AMD's board by accident...;-)

-s2@ExpectingDellAndAMDtoAnnounceABigDealSoonerRatherThanLater.com

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (175489)4/10/2006 11:06:40 AM
From: TigerPaw   of 176342
 
Also, I don't think Dell was anxious to throw support behind AMD without their other major partner either - Microsoft.

Microst kept delaying and delaying release of any 64 bit platform. I don't think it was clear to anyone why since Microsoft indicated everything was just fine, but they just kept slipping the schedule. It looked like they were waiting for Intel to incorporate the 64 bit instructions.

Now it seems that the Longhorn (Vista) operating system was in a lot of developmental trouble and Microsoft just didn't want to report it.

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To: TigerPaw who wrote (175490)4/10/2006 12:24:59 PM
From: thames_sider   of 176342
 
Interesting interview on CNet with Dell's CTO (who I don't think I've heard much of). Essentially he's saying that Dell may not have much R&D itself but it doesn't only leverage that of its suppliers, it tries to direct their R&D...

news.com.com 

To some, Dell marches to the beat of Intel and Microsoft drums, dutifully following their research and development plans. But to hear Kevin Kettler tell it, the PC maker often takes its own lead.

Not only is the company active in establishing technologies, but often it's the kingmaker for emerging standards, Dell's chief technology officer said. In an interview at LinuxWorld Conference and Expo here, Kettler outlined several areas where Dell has gone its own way--over objections from Intel and Microsoft--and has cut behind-the-scenes deals that brought new developments to market.

Essentially, Kettler argued, Dell was responsible for selecting, if not necessarily developing, many of the technologies in today's desktop computers and servers. Among standards for which he said Dell deserves credit are 802.11 wireless networking, PCI Express communications technology and 64-bit extensions to Intel's x86 line of processors.

Dell's assertiveness has led to friction at times between the company and its major allies, however. Just last Monday, Kettler spent eight hours in a meeting with Intel. It was productive, but it "wasn't pretty," he said.

In the past, Microsoft and Intel had more power, said Roger Kay, an analyst at Endpoint Technology Associates. There were few alternatives when PC companies wanted to buy chips or operating systems, and not many computer makers were dominant enough to set terms. But now, with major consolidation in the number of PC sellers as well, there are more power struggles, he said.

"Some very large players--Cisco in networking, Microsoft in operating systems, Intel in chips, Dell in PCs, Best Buy in distribution--they're all jockeying for a dominant position, bluffing, feinting," Kay said. And overall, Dell does indeed hold more power than the past. "It's a little braggadocio, but I think essentially the story holds," he added.

But overall, Dell tends to follow Intel's lead and isn't setting the agenda, said Gartner analyst Steve Kleynhans. "They tend to get involved at the point where technology is getting standardized, and they popularize it. They get it out to a lot of people," he said. "But I don't see them as being the driver of a technology or the one that sets the direction."
...
Intel isn't the only major ally to have fallen out of step with Dell. The PC maker's customer surveys have led it to believe the Blu-ray format should succeed DVDs, Kettler said. At the same time, royalties for Blu-ray are lower than for the rival HD DVD format, and the Blu-ray video content is better, he added.

Microsoft and Intel endorsed HD DVD over Blu-ray in September, and Hewlett-Packard, formerly a strong Blu-ray advocate, softened its stance shortly afterward. Kettler suggested Microsoft hasn't revealed the true reason for its fondness for the format. The company has a "franchise to protect," he said: its Xbox business, which competes with the Blu-ray-enabled Sony PlayStation 3.

Microsoft, not surprisingly, disagreed with this assessment and asserted its motives for preferring HD DVD are broader. HD DVD drives and disks are cheaper and arriving sooner, argued Jordi Ribas, director of technical strategy in the Windows Digital Media Division, and interactive elements of the disks are easier to program in HD DVD's iHD than in Blu-ray's Java.

"With Intel and HP sharing our views on this as well, I would say these (factors) are more critical for the PC ecosystem than for gaming," Ribas said. "Blu-ray has been spinning a good yarn over the past year, but it's becoming clearer that the technology is more expensive and has fewer features, and many of their technology claims are far from deliverable."

Dell is sticking to its guns, though. "Microsoft may bitch, Intel may bitch," but the customers want Blu-ray, and that's what matters to the PC maker, Kettler said.
...

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To: thames_sider who wrote (175491)4/10/2006 12:45:30 PM
From: TigerPaw   of 176342
 
Dell was very involved in the effort a few years ago to get the connectors on the PC and cables color-coded. (Purple for keyboard, green for mouse, etc. ) I think that program encouraged them to push for more standards from their suppliers.

TP

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To: TigerPaw who wrote (175492)4/10/2006 10:08:11 PM
From: stockman_scott   of 176342
 
Dell exec: We're not Wintel's lapdog

news.com.com 

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To: thames_sider who wrote (175491)4/11/2006 6:48:46 AM
From: Dan3   of 176342
 
Re: the customers want Blu-ray

I suspect that there are a few Dell customers who have not spent a lot of time analyzing the difference between DVD-HD and Blu-Ray - just a guess.

:-)

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To: Dan3 who wrote (175494)4/11/2006 2:56:36 PM
From: thames_sider   of 176342
 
I'd have to agree it wouldn't be first on my mind, or possibly even twenty-first... well, maybe just about. Clutching at straws there.

Wonder if there was/is more demand for AMD Opterons than for Blu-Ray?

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To: TigerPaw who wrote (175492)4/12/2006 2:20:33 PM
From: stockman_scott   of 176342
 
07:56 AMD Advanced Micro: JP Morgan previews 1Q06, expects more share gains (34.35 )

JP Morgan expects AMD to meet their recently raised revenue and EPS estimates due primarily to continued share gains in PC processors. They note their 1Q06 revenue and EPS estimates of $1.4 bln (up 7% QoQ, excluding flash memory) and $0.34 (excluding options expense) are above consensus of $1.3 bln and $0.30, respectively. They believe the processor upside was driven by share gains in both the desktop and server processor segments (combined roughly 84% of 4Q05 revenue, excluding flash memory), especially at HPQ, due to the superior price/performance of AMD's Athlon 64 and Opteron product families. They believe AMD will guide for a normal, seasonal "increase" in its processor business in 2Q06 due to share gains. Their checks indicate INTC should increase pricing pressure in Q2, and they remain concerned on the risk of excess processor capacity and a price war in 2H06 or 1H07, which could result in pricing pressure, lower gross margins and/or loss of share for AMD.

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