Technology Stocks | DSS: DLT finally open for trading


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To: Sam who wrote (325)10/24/2000 11:39:44 AM
From: Z Analyzer   of 488
 
Sam, Joined you guys for a nice chunk at $15 at the open today. Already sold 1/2 at 15 7/8 and don't know if i should hold the rest overnight. Was hoping for at least over $16 today. What's your near term target? -Z

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To: Z Analyzer who wrote (326)10/24/2000 1:32:18 PM
From: Gottfried   of 488
 
Z, I sold my small holding of DSS for 15 11/16. Now the stock can soar. That's what happened when I sold RDRT. :)

Gottfried

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To: Gottfried who wrote (327)10/24/2000 1:48:16 PM
From: Sam   of 488
 
Z, G,
I've had a chunk of this stock for so long that we're married. It hasn't been the best relationship, I'll be the first to admit. But I've sold some and added some over the years, I've got a pretty full position right now, don't feel any compelling need for more, though if it dips below 15 again, I may well add again, depending on general market conditions. Snap could be a high flying stock, will have to listen tonight to see how their sales and p/l statement looks, and how they will be capitalized. If there is any insider selling in the offering, that would definitely affect my decision about holding for a longer period, but I'm hoping that that will not be the case, and the company will get everything from the offering. I was wondering how DSS was going to finance Snap's growth with the sale of HDD and the $600m(!) that will accompany it to Maxtor (seemed like too much money to go to Maxtor to me, DSS should have kept more, IMO). I'm hoping that the fact that Snap has been on Dell's opening page for awhile now (haven't checked this in the past week or 10 days or so, but it was there before) means that they have been selling a lot of them, products like Snap play into Dell's distribution strengths. I'd also like to see an announcement of higher capacity servers tonight or very soon.

I had a nice ride on MTIC before CALD went public, I was lucky enough to get out near the top at 48 and change, selling when the CALD offering wasn't priced as well as I expected. I have more hopes that the Snap offering will go well, but will get a better picture of that tonight. Too bad the market for high flyers is weakening, but I think that there is still room for a successful offering if revenue growth is good enough in a hot sector like NAS.

We'll have to wait and see.
Best,
Sam

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To: Sam who wrote (328)10/25/2000 11:47:47 AM
From: dr_elis   of 488
 
Did you listen to the CC? Comments would be very welcome.
Also: Very strange this big dive DSS takes today....

Regards

Michael

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To: dr_elis who wrote (329)10/25/2000 12:46:36 PM
From: Sam   of 488
 
Michael,
I was out last night until 1 AM, then on the go from 7 AM this morning until just now. I'll listen to it tonight, will post comments if any are worth posting (I would guess that there must be, especially given the spinoff news). It is impossible to know w/o listening to the CC what to make of the tank today--Naz is getting killed, could be general market stuff, plus weaker DLT sales. The latter was expected by me--this transition has been tough. I'd look for one more tough quarter, then rising sales thereafter when SDLT (especially the backward compatible version) gets untracked. I look for a good year (finally!) next year in the market for DSS. Should be some pent up demand for both drives and libraries, as well as a boost from Snap, presuming as I do that their sales will be hot.

All (should I bother even to say it?) IM[very]HO.
Sam

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To: dr_elis who wrote (329)10/26/2000 8:28:16 AM
From: Sam   of 488
 
Well, I listened to the CC. Don't have much time this morning, but will post more notes tonight, if I find anything not in the press release worth reporting. For now, a f couple of highlights that haven't been publicly noted yet: they said that they had purchased about 3 million shares last Q for between $35 and 36 million. They have about $130m left to buy shares, and would use that up over the next three quarters. They generated $97 million in cash last Q, not a bad number.

They said they could say nothing about Snap that hasn't already been said, even though a couple of analysts tried to at least get revenue numbers from them. However, I can say that Meridian, in their last reporting quarter, had something like $3 or $3.5 million of revenue. I think all of that was from Snap, and it was a year ago. So if revenues grew tenfold Y-Y, which was one of the two things that magically they thought they could say about Snap sales (the other was that revenue increased 50% sequentially), then revenue was between $30 and $35 million, not a shabby number at all, in fact those are NTAP numbers, and we all know what kind of stock NTAP is. They did note what has been noted on SI before, that Snap is on Dell's front Web page, and has been so since their partnership was announced. The plug and play nature of the product plays very nicely into Dell's distribution strengths. They are also seeing more volume orders of the Snap servers, especially the 4000 (I guess they said more than two facts--but not much more!).

One thing I found interesting was that they are partnering with NTAP on a gigabyte ethernet product, as well as an FC SAN product, both of which may have been partially responsible for having the spinoff happen now. If Snap keeps increasing the capacities of their servers, eventually they will have to run into NTAP's space. This won't happen anytime soon, but they may as well take care of the possible conflict now.

BTW, the drop yesterday wasn't surprising, especially given the market, but also the dearth of info on Snap. It may be a pretty hot offering, if the market climate is still ripe for hot offerings. I am (cautiously) very optimistic about both stocks for the next year.

More later.
Sam

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To: Sam who wrote (331)10/27/2000 10:58:19 PM
From: Sam   of 488
 
Quick note FWIW: Snap revenue
I tried to find the last quarter that Meridian filed before being taken over to find out what their revenues were. Found this in an August 99 filing:

<<Meridian had revenue of $8 million and $18 million, and a net loss of $6 million and $13 million for the six months ended June 30, 1999, and the year ended December 31, 1998, respectively.>>

Not a pretty picture in terms of p/l, for sure. Hopefully Quantum has done something about the losses while ramping up the revenues. I also found that revenues for the 3 months ending June 30, 1999 were $3.89m. Didn't recall the loss, though, sorry. Presumably revenues for the quarter ending 9/30 were at least similar to the 6/30 quarter. This would suggest that Snap revenues for the last quarter were between $30 and $40 million.

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To: Sam who wrote (332)10/30/2000 10:27:55 AM
From: Z Analyzer   of 488
 
H & Q to participate in Snap! underwriting. The H & Q HDD and DSS upgrades smelled of this from the beginning. Especially that assinine comment about the actual timing of the SDLT being immaterial. -Z

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To: Z Analyzer who wrote (333)11/3/2000 10:55:44 PM
From: Sam   of 488
 
Interesting speculation on DSS from Machokraut on Yahoo. The most intriguing paragraph is:

<< Lastly, and this is the absolute kicker... apparently an ATL spin-off/IPO is next in line [after Snap], after which the rest of the business (speak DLT) will be sold off to one of several suitors. The rumormongers within have a very impressive list of suitors. The initial list I was told about this week included HP, Dell, and Network Appliance. Then yesterday I got a call from my buddy and he said that now Compaq is on top of the rumor heap all over sudden. He also told me that there will apparently be an announcement forthcoming in the next week or two that will surprise everybody (he actually said shock everybody).>>

I don't normally give credence to Yahoo rumors, but Macho and his friends called the HDD/Maxtor merger pretty well, ahead of the rumor mills. I hope that the "shock" will be a good "shock", and not a "Well, SDLT doesn't work after all" shock. I can't think off-hand of what it could be. Any guesses out there?

s.

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To: Sam who wrote (334)11/8/2000 11:37:30 AM
From: HowardRoarke   of 488
 
siliconinvestor.com

could change title to "DSS to shut down DLT in Shrewsbury, MA"
maybe keep a couple r&d guys around who invented the stuff.

The plot thickens as the DLT for sale rumor is changing.

messages.yahoo.com 

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