Technology Stocks | The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company


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To: DaveMG who wrote (3507)11/23/1999 12:51:00 PM
From: quidditch   of 13582
 
Dave,

Re China: Don't forget that the Chinese have to weigh GSM momentum against CDMA spectral efficiency. I suspect that when you consider the 2-4x spectral advantage and easy/evolutionary upgrade path, that all political considerations aside, it STILL makes economic sense to move to CDMA.

I don't have enough knowledge of the airspace and spectrum conditions in PRC; I guess I assumed that, in the article Brian posted, when Shanghai authorities and MII added the additional digit for wireless numbers, available spectrum did not seem to be an issue, bwdik?

As to upgrade path: i) no one knows when 3G adoption becomes real object of market demand, in China or anywhere else; ii) 2002-2003 in Europe or US, farther out in China=a long time out: maybe MII and political/budgetary types in China figure they'll be better able to afford CDMA infrastructure in five years in order to accommodate spectral and data issues, rather than investing now when money is tight and GSM is working and addressing all needs of the present wireless market. That is, the "easy/evolutionary upgrade path" has to be weighed against current and future costs vs. easy path of doing nothing now to change legacy GSM base. Not so different from T's dilemma.

Steve

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To: LBstocks who wrote (3516)11/23/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: slacker711   of 13582
 

Cena's analysis is based on 159.0 million shares. Thus, target is about 472.

Dont we have to pay attention to the diluted (194m) number since that is the number that is used to calculate earnings?

Slacker

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To: slacker711 who wrote (3518)11/23/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: LBstocks   of 13582
 
Earnings can be calculated either way, diluted or undiluted. Cena opts for the latter.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (3518)11/23/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: SKIP PAUL   of 13582
 
convertibles and options are considered dilutive when they are in the money. Except when there are losses. Also the extinguishment of debt or proceeds of option exercise have to considered.

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To: SKIP PAUL who wrote (3520)11/23/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: quidditch   of 13582
 
Slacker, SKIP is correct in his statements. Imho, it's a bit misleading not to use 194 million since, as was just pointed out, that is the number on which Q reported and will report (subject to further issuance of shares or securities exercisable, convertible or exchangeable for shares) EPS and which analysts use to judge YOY and sequential growth, notwithstanding changes in diluted shares outstanding in different periods (usually noted in the 10Q/K).

That said, 387 seems to be the number that ties to Cena's market cap model, fully valuing Q for the revenue and earnings streams used by him. Until the handset division sale (for better or for worse), greater clarity in near term with regard to China, some other good news on ASIC sales and CDMA adoption, I'll take 387 for the time being.

Steve

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To: LBstocks who wrote (3516)11/23/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: kech   of 13582
 
LBStocks- Cena's analysis was pointing to 75 billion market cap independent of number of shares. If he got shares wrong and they are really 194 million then you divide the market cap by those shares to get the target price. It is the same method as Cena's to get the price one should have gotten if Cena had used the proper number of shares. This price is $387 not $472. Tom

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To: Scott Zion who wrote (3483)11/23/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn   of 13582
 
Scott, thanks for those Frezza links. I enjoyed some nice nostalgic reading, some of which was very related to action today. It's disappointing to see the predictable and avoidable come along to damage Q! now. China could have been CDMA now!

Immodestly, here is a timely excerpt from 3 years ago:
<Another area I see looming, maybe a decade from now, is hubris. When you are the best and brightest, your charms and the surrounding cheering induce a soporific self-adulation which leads one to lie back and bask in the glow - it won't feel like basking, but basking it will be. The creative genius and drive behind CDMA will long have gone and the momentum will seem to be created by those who are actually being dragged along in the wake of the initial impetus. An example would be IBM who took an empire and ran it down with hubris. Apple too. Will Qualcomm be able to create a climate of humility in it's operations? Or are they just too great?

Related to this is the bigger picture. The USA presumes to give instruction to Japan, China and others on FREE TRADE, while retaining all its own fraud in this regard. The USA does not operate free trade systems. Binding itself into the concept of trade wars with Japan and China, a brinkmanship they continue to indulge, could spell disaster. They are irrational to do so, but that has never been a barrier to action.

If they indulge their madness, Qualcomm will not be selling CDMA in China and GSM could become the official system. There is a concept still with many in the USA that China and maybe even Japan are part of the "starving millions in Asia". Wake up Uncle Sam!!! You are an old man. If you pick a fight, your CDMA and a lot more besides will be looking pretty sad.

Al Gore gives Irwin Jacobs a Medal for Technology, then goes back to punching out the lights of Qualcomm's potential biggest customers over some Free Trade Fantasy. Open your borders USA and ignore the burden other countries put on their people by restricting trade. It is not a USA loss. Little NZ did it and look at our economy go, after decades in the bog of protection. Is Uncle Sam too old to understand the reality of the modern interactive world?
>

With friends like those, who needs enemies? Invite Zhu over, send him packing empty-handed, then bomb his embassy! How to win friends and influence people. Even at this late stage, CDMA still has a chance, thanks to the huge efficiencies of it and competition which will deliver high performance at low cost.

Qualcomm is on track to be the biggest gorilla in town! In 7 years, Q! will make IBM at its Zenit[h] look an interesting artifact of the early 1980s. In 15 years, it will be interesting to see Qualcomm. Will they have hubris? I bet the JJJ Klan [Joel Klein, Janet Reno, Jackson] will be sizing them up well before then to protect the consumers from cdma2000 WWeb monopoly pricing.

Paradigm Shift Happens!

Mqurice

PS: I'll let Frezza RIP for now...


Thanks too for the links to the Telecosm99 webcast. WWeb will be big time! If Nortel meets their price per Megabyte goal, people will watch trillions of bytes while they have time on their hands or just want to see such stuff. It doesn't take too many bytes or dollars to see it. WWeb will be very big and very soon. The tailenders will miss out.
webevents.broadcast.com 


I better watch this one!
<The Trouble Discerning Major Paradigm Shifts

George Gilder, Chairman, GilderGroup
Gary Winnick, Founder and Co-Chairman, Global Crossing Ltd
>
Gilder says Major Paradigm Shift Happens!

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To: kech who wrote (3522)11/23/1999 3:14:00 PM
From: Stu R   of 13582
 
Unfortunately, equity analysts are expected to divine the
future price of a stock with enough precision to actually fix a price and time frame (usually no more than 18 months).
However, they can change their call whenever they want to.
Wasn't it 2 weeks ago an analyst changed his target twice in
one week? I don't think anybody can be expected to predict
with consistent accuracy future price movement.
Since Cena must produce a target I think he chose a simple
relative valuation measure to express the potential future
value of the company (namely higher)while not intending for
it to represent "the" value of the company.
Savvy investors and valuation expects do not value companies
based on a multiple of revenues. Valuation is done based on
earnings and/or cash flow.
I think Cena's target number (whatever it is) is just a number and has little value other than to support his obvious bullishness in the prospects for the future of Q.
That being said, if I were interested in resolving the issue
of whether the target price should be calculated using diluted or undiluted shares I would first go back to Cena's
original premise of comparable industry company valuations
being 30X revenues. I would select for myself the company's
I believed to be comparable and would find out what multiple
of revenues they are and then calculate it 2 ways using
diluted and undiluted for each comp. company.
Since I think it is an exercise in futility I will leave it
to some other interested person to do.

Stu

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To: kech who wrote (3522)11/23/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön   of 13582
 
I don't think it is incorrect to say that QCOM's market cap is based on 165 million shares outstanding. I think market cap is generally based on these shares only. That is not to say other obligations should be ignored, but they are called other things. The larger figure (obtained using 194mm shares), including options and converts and so on, sounds more like enterprise value, which would also add in debt and cash. I think a lot of big-cap companies have disparities like this (look at MSFT), but the market cap figure is typically based on shares outstanding. Assuming this is what Cena meant (I think it is), then you would say current market cap is 60bil (for 165 mil shares, not 194mil), so you could obtain per-share forecast by multiplying the current share price by 1.25, i.e., about 450 a share.

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To: kech who wrote (3522)11/23/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: LBstocks   of 13582
 
Market cap can also be calculated either way. That being said, Cena's official price target is 370 (see top of his post). However, IMO, he is implying (as he has done in the past) that QCOM deserves a higher value.

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