Biotech / MedicalBiotech Valuation

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To: John Metcalf who wrote (31336)5/29/2009 1:53:29 PM
From: Biotech Jim
1 Recommendation   of 50069
I listened to the last CC that NRGN held. They are shutting down operations and there are 7 people left, so the burn should go way down. Also they stopped the active enrollment of their 2 ongoing Ph2 studies with aplindore. No more clinical spend except the final bills to come in. They have other assets they are trying to sell as well including patent portfolios for other programs in which there is significant pharma and biotech interest. It has been a very depressing story...


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From: Ian@SI5/29/2009 2:21:31 PM
1 Recommendation   of 50069
Dow Jones NewsPlus Access thru Saturday:

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To: Jon Khymn who wrote (31329)5/29/2009 2:30:53 PM
From: kenhott
   of 50069
<collect the premium for next 2 week>

I agree with Biomaven re: the expectation that the collective premiums between a reasonable set of calls and puts will not go down much prior to the meeting. In these situations, we may actually see the premiums go up as we get nearer the decision point. I am just guessing of course and maybe you have some mix of options that will win out at the end.

The easiest suggestion for downside is cash level. That would put share price at $1. Upside, I would guess it will be over your $10. A lot depends on what they say at the advisory meeting and then the overall attitude of the market. The market is not behaving normally so a real trading risk is we get the unexpected.

In the last X months, a lot of very smart people have been killed because the markets have traded abnormally. On the other hand, recently, a lot of smart and not-so-smart monies have done well chasing after certain types of stocks, etc.

In SVNT, the stock will be controlled by the FDA decision. I suspect a lot of people who don't know much about SVNT is in this stock because of some non-fundamental reasons. And for the people who actually know about the June deadline, most maybe thinking along the same line as you about getting out before the decision. At least the smart ones.

I'll follow up on RKRW's comment with a little more color. In SVNT's phase 3 program, they had n=170 on drug and n=43 on placebo. About 33% of drug had an infusion reaction with 11% being severe. But the real problem is in the cardiac AE area. There were 3 APTC events and 10 non-APTC events in drug and NONE in placebo. So 1.8% APTC and 5.9% non-APTC vs. 0% for placebo. In the follow-up open label study, n=82 and they had 2 APTC and 7 non-APTC or 2.5% and 8.8% so far. No placebo in the open label study. Patients in this study group had baseline cardiac issues. So the companies' argument is that they have baseline cardiac problems and no reason to think that the AEs were due to drug and something about more people on drug than placebo so the numerical difference is therefore some how not indicative.

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To: Arthur Radley who wrote (31339)5/29/2009 2:48:05 PM
From: kenhott
1 Recommendation   of 50069
OT- <Neighbor... His last name is Jackson!>

That's odddddd, my last name is Jackson and I live in Houston?!?!?!?!?!? :)

I guess it all may come down to our expectation of ourselves and our children. If we don't expect much from ourselves as parents, then we should probably not expect much of our kids so we probably don't. And if we think they should be large truck driving, trash can avoiding people, then we may just get kids of that kind.

Another thought is parents may actually know what they want for their kids but they don't know how to get their kids from here to there. Maybe your neighbor is thinking.... A large truck!! T. Boone Jr. can haul his own ass from here to there.

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From: Arthur Radley5/29/2009 4:12:25 PM
   of 50069
Buyers really came into (MITI) on the close have to go back to Oct. '08 to see this size volume in a day. They have two presentations tomorrow at ASCO so this might be the reason for the surge in price and volume.

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To: Biomaven who wrote (31331)5/29/2009 7:12:59 PM
From: DewDiligence_on_SI
1 Recommendation   of 50069
Speaking of penny stocks, there certainly have been some crazy moves in the nano-cap biotech sector of late.

There are more speculators out there than there are investors, evidently. The two most active stock boards on iHub are the ones for WAMUQ and GNTA!

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To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (31346)5/29/2009 9:49:16 PM
From: tom pope
   of 50069
As proof of that, GM common has been levitating well above $1 all week, in defiance of the probability that equity holders seldom do well in a bankruptcy. Finally, today, it closed down 33%.

The probability of a GM bankruptcy has not been a secret. Who were the buyers? What could have been their strategy?

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To: kenhott who wrote (31343)5/29/2009 9:52:34 PM
From: kenhott
   of 50069
Savient Up As Investors More Confident In Drug Approval
Last update: 5/29/2009 2:53:16 PM

By Shara Tibken

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SVNT) climbed as much as 14% Friday as analysts said investors were more confident the company's drug to treat gout would receive approval from a U.S. Food and Drug Administration panel on June 16.
Collins Stewart analyst Salveen J. Kochnover said in a note Friday that her firm recently hosted a dinner with a former FDA Arthritis Advisory Committee member and current Savient consultant, Dr. Lee Simon. She said he suggested Krystexxa, the company's drug to be used in treatment-failure gout patients, is approvable.
"In addition, SVNT has lined up a group of external, top-tier rheumatologists, immunologists and cardiologists with FDA experience to present on Krystexxa to the panel ..., which he believes should lend credibility to the data," Kochnover wrote.
A representative from Savient wasn't immediately available to comment Friday.
In recent trading, shares were up 9.2% to $6.28. Shares rose as high as $6.56 earlier Friday, up about 50% over the past three months. Shares have been hammered over the past 12 months as investors were concerned about the safety of Krystexxa.
The company said in October that seven people in the study died after taking the drug, raising concerns about cardiovascular side effects.
Several analysts said they believe the drug could receive a favorable FDA panel review, as the company has spent a significant amount of time preparing for the panel and as the FDA could determine the rewards of the drug outweigh the risks.
"We expect the FDA to determine the drug has a good risk benefit in a defined patient population of treatment failure gout patients," Leerink Swann analyst Joseph P. Schwartz told Dow Jones Newswires, adding investors are looking for Savient to deliver a "sound" REMS, or risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.
Schwartz said the REMS program is the FDA's new initiative to ensure safety of drugs with known risks. He said that by limiting what patients take the drug, the risk is minimized.
"They could prevent people with multiple cardiovascular risk factors from getting it, as well as people who don't respond to it any longer," Schwartz said, adding a similar gout drug developed by Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. (4502.TO) was approved earlier this year, though it has a less well-defined population and didn't clarify the cardiovascular risk profile.
"There is a limited number of people with a medical need for Krystexxa - about 15,000 in the U.S. - so the company should have a good chance of convincing the FDA there's a favorable risk benefit," Schwartz said.
Oppenheimer & Co. analyst John Newman, meanwhile, said he doesn't believe the drug will be approved by the FDA as the safety concerns are too high.
"The efficacy is good," Newman told Dow Jones Newswires. "But it could be killing patients."
-By Shara Tibken, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2168;;
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 29, 2009 14:53 ET (18:53 GMT)

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To: Biotech Jim who wrote (31341)5/29/2009 11:28:47 PM
From: John Metcalf
   of 50069
"It has been a very depressing story..."

Yes. There was a time when Neurogen was a leader amongst the platform companies, and had promising candidates. I held shares then, and made money.

Your comment suggests there is a vulture sweep on remaining assets. The lesson is a biotech company can do many things well, and still not pay off. This is a lesson I learn over and over....

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To: tom pope who wrote (31347)5/29/2009 11:47:24 PM
From: Biomaven
1 Recommendation   of 50069
>>GM common has been levitating well above $1 all week, in defiance of the probability that equity holders seldom do well in a bankruptcy.

Out of curiosity I checked around a week ago - no GM shares to short. The same is true of many of the pump-and-dump biotechs that have been soaring of late. No shares to short means stocks can unreasonably levitate for long periods before they finally drop to where they belong.


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