Biotech Valuation | Stock Discussion Forums

To: Biomaven who wrote (30823)	4/3/2009 2:03:25 PM
From: idos	3 Recommendations of 40320

I don't see s significant difference in efficacy across the DPP-IV class, they all appear to have efficacy similar to Januvia. Safety profiles on the other hand, vary as seen with Galvus and alogliptin. As for Onglyza, its safety and efficacy look undifferentiated from those of Januvia to me. On AMLN, LAR's data package is made up mostly of sigle ~300 patient, open label study, based on the FDA classifying LAR as a line extension of Byetta. But I see a possibility that the FDA might change its mind and ask for more data from the DURATION trials before approving. There's also the FDA's hurdle of comparability between Byetta (commercial vs. trial scale) manufactured at different facilities, and the pancreatitis issue, and the needle size.

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To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (30830)	4/3/2009 3:37:52 PM
From: Biomaven	2 Recommendations of 40320

The DNDN implied volatilities on their options are indicating a significant May event, so that would be consistent with the Apr 28 meeting. At the end of the day, even if their results are good I could see the FDA giving them a hard time on the manufacturing side. But shorting a pop on good news could also be very hazardous given how crowded a short this is. So I personally don't see myself playing this one in either direction. (I generally believe it's a lot easier to make money in biotech with stocks that few people are talking about rather than ones with active and vociferous followers and detractors). Peter

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