Biotech Valuation | Stock Discussion Forums

To: Biomaven who wrote (14487)	12/3/2004 8:19:11 PM
From: Robohogs	of 40322

Peter, I am in similar position to you - my advice is to step back and breathe. This is a much better year than 2001/2002. Thank goodness. Yeah, I also rode my four largest positions to nice gains (or recoveries from lows) - AMD (now largest with doubling in last 2 months), SEPR (been trimming), ELN (became fervent bull only recently but still only ever sold a few shares) and QQQ (opposite of your hedge. I did get hurt with a large amount of cash and in some large pharma long hedges and some financials as well as internet substitute IACI - proves you should pay price and go with the best (or as in real estate, location, location, location). A small position in ICOS also hurt (30% down) and I did not buy more like I wanted in $21-22 area. Scrip trends on this are solid and estimates of profitability are way off. I am also considering NBIX as a hedge to SEPR and a proxy on PFE's massive muscle. This latest news on P&G makes me want to wait on this one, though. This also points to fact that diversification only hurts performance if you are right on a few big calls. Peter - may you have an equally GOOD year (or better) next year! Your pal in frustration, Jon

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To: Robohogs who wrote (14490)	12/3/2004 10:33:51 PM
From: Biomaven	of 40322

but any implications for SEPR? I really don't think so - this is a completely different situation. There's no hint of a safety concern with Estorra. I'm not hedging my SEPR long position at all, although I have certainly trimmed a bunch over the last six months, mostly around $50. I have a pretty big long call position as well. The comparatively low implied volatilities on the options suggest that the market thinks that approval is pretty certain - but the implication also is that there may not be that much of a pop on approval. SEPR next year is a harder question. I expect to take some more off the table come the new tax year. Peter

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To: Robohogs who wrote (14491)	12/3/2004 11:01:28 PM
From: Biomaven	of 40322

Well we're practically twins here in terms of our biggest positions. Certainly this is a year I'd be more than happy to take again next year - but somehow I doubt that we'll be offered it again. After a spectacular 2003 and a good 2004 I don't think one can reasonably expect anything dramatic in 2005. And looking around, I'm not exactly struck by screaming undervaluations. Maybe time for something different on the thread. How about going back to the roots of the thread and asking for biotechs that seem undervalued based on fundamentals? But let's group them by time horizon - for example, if their value is primarily dependent on some event happening a year out, then they go in the 1-year basket, and so on. For biotechs that have multiple events, just list all the significant times, with relative importance. For now, feel free to simply throw out some names - maybe we can get people interested in doing some analysis. I'll throw out two names I've been looking at recently - NTII and ALKS. Peter

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To: Biomaven who wrote (14494)	12/3/2004 11:12:07 PM
From: Robohogs	of 40322

I would throw in NBIX, ELN, and ICOS. Note: I only own 1 in size (ELN) with a small position (relatively large loss) in ICOS. Key drivers for ELN will be Prialt developments but most importantly, initial uptake on Tsyabri in US, evidence of off label use in US, European approval for MS and maybe Crohns, as well as longer term data this spring in MS and any new Crohns data. Wildcard drivers will include any AD developments. Key drivers for ICOS will be continued uptake on Cialis as well as data on marketing spend (main market worry here). For NBIX, uptake (if any-still needs approval) on SEPR's Estorra (or whatever name it has) as well as FDA decisions will be key. I would expect longer term label discussions and no early decision on approval. Jon

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