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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (1379)1/31/2010 4:40:55 PM
From: Snowshoe1 Recommendation   of 3175
 
LOL, just found out Brazil has a tax on ethanol imports to Brazil! Now they have a shortage and might import some good ol' corn hooch from the USA... <g>

Brazilians call for cut to 20% ethanol import tax
rechargenews.com 

The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association, Unica, is calling for the elimination of a 20% import tax on ethanol as domestic stocks are depleting and prices at the pump are on the rise.

Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of ethanol, but bad rains have been blamed for a poor sugar cane harvest, and local supply has been depleted.

Brazil recently decreased the mandated blend of ethanol in gasoline from 25% to 20%, roughly representing 100 million litres per year, to combat steadily rising biofuel prices.

Unica says its tax cut request is not related to a dip in ethanol stocks, and instead reflects the group’s position for free trade for renewable fuels.

Brazil has imported ethanol in the past from the US, Argentina and Germany, although not always for fuel usage.

The association insists Brazil has enough ethanol to make it until the sugar cane harvest begins in April, but some industry experts think otherwise, and point to an oversupply of US corn ethanol that could make imports feasible.

Brazil recently decreased the mandated blend of ethanol in gasoline from 25% to 20%, roughly representing 100 million litres per year, to combat steadily rising biofuel prices.

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To: gcrispin who wrote (2282)1/31/2010 9:45:18 PM
From: Jon Koplik   of 3175
 
the price of wheat (during the 1930s) was mentioned in a "Mad Men" episode (during season 3)

If I remember correctly ...

(and this will not "spoil" the episode, in case there are any "Mad Men" fans out there reading this, who did not see all of Season 3, yet),

Dan Draper's father is disgusted that the price that the "co-op" was willing to pay for his wheat was only 61 cents a bushel.

(Or maybe, that was the price he could get if he brought his crop to Chicago (?) But, I think it was the other ...)

"Mad Men" usually takes the time and effort to make their story details accurate, so ... I assume that this was correct.

(I have not yet looked at the data in the link you gave. I will look later.)

Jon.

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To: Snowshoe who wrote (2283)2/1/2010 12:22:11 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor   of 3175
 
LOL, someone call Jack Daniels, quick!

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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (2284)2/1/2010 7:57:16 AM
From: gcrispin   of 3175
 
The link is to the inflation calculator.

Here's the prices for wheat in the 30s and early 40s. (These are prices for WA soft white.)


1929: 1.13
1930: .74
1931: .37
1932: .38
1933: .60
1934: .73
1935: .70
1936: .91
1937: .75
1938: .49
1939: .65
1940: .85
1941: 1.03

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From: LoneClone2/1/2010 9:33:24 AM
   of 3175
 
Pressure on agriculture sector may be short-lived

31/01/10

By Rod Nickel

globeinvestor.com 

WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - A plunge in grain prices to start 2010 has pressured shares of some Canadian agricultural companies, but the pullback may be short-lived given the industry's strong long-term fundamentals.

Analysts said the multi-year trend of improving diets in populous, developing countries like China and India remains intact, suggesting investors may find opportunities after recent price drops in the sector.

"It becomes a great buying opportunity. This doesn't change our view on anything ... in the interim, there's going to be ups and downs," said Robert Winslow, an analyst for Wellington West Capital Markets.

The Toronto-based analyst thinks grain prices could still drift lower this year, taking agricultural equities with them. But underlying bullish fundamentals should result in higher grain prices -- and better performance by those stocks -- a year from now, he said.

U.S. ag futures plunged in January, with Chicago corn down 14 percent and wheat and soybeans falling 12 percent as of Friday, mostly on projections for big supplies.

That pressure has spilled onto markets for Canada's two biggest crops, spring wheat and canola, with ICE Canada canola futures down about 8 percent.

The performance of Canadian ag companies that do everything from handling grain to selling machinery is linked closely to the prices farmers collect for their crops.

Saskatchewan-based Viterra Inc , which became a global grain handling giant with last year's acquisition of Australia's ABB Grain, reported a small fourth-quarter loss on January 21, with its stock off nearly 12 percent from its recent high, partly because commodity prices have weakened.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Kenneth Zaslow said in a note to clients that the year ahead looks to be challenging as Viterra deals with lower grain prices, absorbs ABB and handles a smaller Canadian crop.

While demand in developing countries keeps the longer-term outlook bright, some farmers may not be able to ride out a lengthy grain price slide, said Brian Wittal, an agriculture analyst with Pro Com Marketing.

A Reuters poll showed analysts expect big global grain production and a rebound in South American soybean output will keep pressure on Chicago corn, soybean and wheat futures through the end of 2010.

Still, many agriculture-related equities are trading on the multi-year outlook, supported by the belief that as booming populations in the developing world prosper, they will eat more meat from grain-fed livestock.

"(A lower grain price) doesn't mean the year is a complete writeoff by any means, but it definitely puts a negative slant on things," said Jason Zandberg, an analyst with PI Financial Corp, who thinks grain prices will be flat if not higher by autumn.

One of the companies Zandberg covers, auger and grain bin manufacturer Ag Growth International Inc , should see most of its growth internationally, he said. Its shares and those of farm machinery dealer Cervus Equipment Corp gained value in January, while the stock of machinery seller Rocky Mountain Dealerships Inc slipped.

Cervus and Rocky Mountain did well in 2009 as farmers tried to minimize their taxes by offsetting big crops with machinery purchases. But both Zandberg and Wittal noted sustained weakness in grain prices would hurt the sector.

"Anyone that's trying to sell iron to farmers is certainly going to find it a lot tougher, just because, if guys were planning on having a little disposable income based on crop values, that's disappearing pretty fast," Wittal said.

POTENTIAL WINNERS

Hemisphere GPS , a Calgary, Alberta-based maker of satellite technology used by farmers to precisely manage their land, is Winslow's top agriculture pick for 2010 for its long-term prospects. But Hemisphere's global positioning systems are a "luxury good" that wouldn't be among farmers' first purchases even after a good year, he notes, so it's not so much a short-term consideration.

Investors looking for a near-term winner from weaker grain prices may want to consider pork processor Maple Leaf Foods. , although its shares slipped in January.

Cheaper grain can weigh down hog prices since farmers may sell for less if their costs are lower, said analyst Robert Gibson of Octagon Capital Corp. If Maple Leaf can buy hogs more cheaply, its profit margins will grow, assuming retail pork prices don't fall as quickly, he said.

The overall outlook for Maple Leaf looks "fantastic," mainly because its last two years were so poor following a costly meat recall in 2008, Gibson said.

(Editing by Jeffrey Hodgson and Rob Wilson)

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From: TimF2/4/2010 3:06:20 PM
3 Recommendations   of 3175
 
Farmer Knows Best
The dark side of going green.
BY Blake Hurst
February 8, 2010, Vol. 15, No. 20

Tarkio, Missouri

Kathleen Merrigan, deputy secretary of agriculture and an organic and sustainable food expert, has announced an initiative entitled “Know Your Farmer, Know Your Food.” Sixty-five million dollars will be spent “to begin a national conversation to help develop local and regional food systems.”

America, it seems, has been operating at a knowledge deficit when it comes to farmers, and farmers lack the social skills to close the gap between eaters and producers of food. Still, one can only imagine what a Know Your Farmer program designed by government will involve. As I survey the farmers living around me, it’s clear we need some sort of sensitivity training, memberships at the local gym, nose hair trimmers, and a new barber. Most of us have been farming for decades (the average American farmer is 58) and are working land that has been owned by family members for generations. Yet any quick perusal of the current literature about agriculture would indicate that our days of farming are numbered. In the current jargon: We are not sustainable.

Local food is seen as a good thing because it travels a short distance from farm to consumer. This cuts the production of greenhouse gases, is presumed to guarantee freshness, and connects consumers with “their” farmer. “Food miles,” the number of miles food travels to your table, has become an important metric, and marketers are trumpeting their allegiance to local producers.

This is mostly harmless, and farmers will benefit if they can capture some slightly larger percentage of the food dollar by selling at the farm gate or through a local USDA-subsidized farmer’s market. I love showing people my farm, will talk with anybody about agriculture, and am more than willing to “know” my consumer. Even so, I imagine the experience will be a letdown for her. I’m sure to disagree with most of the views a typical Whole Foods/farmers’ market customer holds about what they eat. The opportunities for confrontation are legion, and maybe some of that $65 million should be set aside for arbitration as foodies find out what “their” farmers actually believe about food production.

In an important article in PERC Reports, published by the Property and Environment Research Center, Pierre Desrochers and Hiroko Shimizu demonstrate that the concept of “food miles” ignores the advantages that fertile land and agreeable climate give some producers. If my corn yield is 200 bushels an acre, while farmers in Tennessee achieve half that yield from comparable inputs, then I can afford to ship my crop a greater distance.

The PERC authors use the example of strawberries grown in California, where the climate is near perfect for the crop, and strawberries grown in Canada in greenhouses that must be heated in winter. In December, strawberries from California can be shipped to market in Canada with less total energy use than the locally grown crop. The food miles are greater, but the carbon footprint is smaller. True believers in the local food movement, of course, simply stop eating strawberries in winter. Their devotion is admirable, but a winter diet of freshly dug turnips and stored potatoes is hardly interesting. If we concentrate production of each crop in the areas best suited for it, we’ll leave more acres for trees, recreation, and other environmental goods. There are perfectly defensible reasons both for shopping locally and for dispersing production, but protecting the environment isn’t one of them.

Local food isn’t always fresher, either. The cooperatives that collect, process, and distribute milk schedule pickups according to the size of the dairy. Driving a truck from the plant to the farm is expensive, so large dairies’ milk is picked up daily, while smaller dairies may only see the milk truck a couple of times a week. Here in Missouri, milk reaches the store more quickly from the large dairies in the Southwestern states than it does from small local dairies. If Missouri consumers want to support local dairies, and I hope they do, their milk won’t always be as fresh as milk that has traveled farther. As Desrochers and Shimizu point out, most food miles are clocked on the trip home from the supermarket. That truck delivering milk holds thousands of gallons. Most consumers buy one gallon at a time. The five-mile trip home from the supermarket is the most carbon-intensive trip your morning’s milk will make.

Our family is enjoying the last of a side of beef we bought from a local farmer. He raised the cow on his small farm, took it to a small meat processing plant, and delivered the meat to our door. We had a nice visit, farmer to farmer, family to family. The beef is tender, cut the way we like it, and we were pleased to support a local grower. The food miles traveled by our beef were minimal. In fact, the carbon footprint of that heifer was about as small as could be, since she was fattened on corn. That’s right, corn-fed cows emit about half the greenhouse gases cattle fattened on grass emit, because corn is a more concentrated feed than grass, the cattle reach market weight faster, and less land is used per pound of food produced. If carbon footprint is your guide, better to buy beef fattened in one of those feedlots in Western Kansas and shipped cross country to your grocery store than to purchase locally raised grass-fed beef. Then again, it’s probably a given that people truly concerned about energy use and environmental costs have already excised beef from their diet. I appreciate their dedication, envy their self-control, and wish them a long life. A life without beef will seem very long, indeed.

Sixty-five million dollars isn’t much these days, a mere drop in the ocean of stimulus bills and health care reform. It’s not even much compared with the subsidies we traditional farmers receive, and it would be hypocritical to begrudge the local and sustainable movement its chance at rent seeking from Washington, a game that farmers have played successfully for years. If the only reason for the program were to encourage small farmers as a bit of social engineering, then few would object. The damage done here, however, is to truth. The program will not reach its environmental goals. It will only help certain consumers feel good about themselves.

Implicit in the argument about local production is the assumption of market failure. People worried about food miles want to control the energy expended to bring them food, but they value not at all the land necessary to produce it or the farmer’s labor to grow it and get it to market. To make food more local is to replace technology with more farmers and more land. Petroleum, it is assumed, will soon run out, but labor and land are cheap and easily increased. Sustainability advocates believe the costs of alleged global warming and other environmental damage from conventional agriculture are greater than the present economic contribution of all the prospective farmers who will leave their occupations and move to small, local, sustainable farms. Not only that, but they fail to account for the additional acres of land needed for the new farms.

Are these assumptions true? It may be that productive land and human capital will become ever more dear, while we continue to find new ways to improve our energy supplies. Organic advocates like Merrigan spend a lot of time asking for more labeling, telling the consumer where food was produced, how it was produced, what it might contain, and even who produced it. But all food already has a label that serves as a pretty good proxy for the resources used in its production. It’s called the price.

Blake Hurst is a farmer in Missouri.

weeklystandard.com 

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To: TimF who wrote (2288)2/4/2010 5:31:14 PM
From: LoneClone   of 3175
 
This article, though very persuasive in some ways, fails to take into account one important factor for locavores -- I want to know personally the farmer who grows the food I eat.

I plan to continue to exist outside the conventional food production systems to the greatest extent I can manage.

LC

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To: LoneClone who wrote (2289)2/4/2010 5:35:54 PM
From: TimF2 Recommendations   of 3175
 

I don't think the author was outright condemning the idea of buying local, and certainly I would not. If you like knowing the farmer, or you have some other reason that's perfectly fine, you are and should be free to eat the food you want to eat. I posted the article more as a response to some of the arguments for being a locavore, that are at least by some small minority even used as arguments to try to push others in to it. I have no problems with people who choose to be locavores, people who chose not to be, or people that just don't care, as long as they don't have problems with those who make other choices, and esp. as long as they don't try to force others to make their choice.

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To: TimF who wrote (2288)2/5/2010 7:36:57 AM
From: Slewnior   of 3175
 
I stopped reading and started skimming in paragraph 2. So, tell me, any mention of subsidies supporting the famer/author's "farming" enterprise?

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To: Slewnior who wrote (2291)2/5/2010 9:34:52 AM
From: TimF   of 3175
 

Subsidies are really a separate issue (which is not to say it isn't an important one). They are provided to farms big an small (of course in dollar terms mostly to the big), and still could be whatever the shift to, or for that matter away, from the locavore idea. Its a related issue to the extent that they help drive big agribusiness, and to the extent they can reduce efficiency, and obscure measurement of efficiency, but still I think its pretty clear that for many agricultural products, non local (and often, but not always large) farming is typically more efficient and often has less climate and environmental impact than trying to produce everything locally.

I accept that lower costs, efficiency, and land/climate/environmental impact are not the only criteria to be considered. For example, there is the "I like to know my farmer" idea that was posted here, and also having local production, while still having widely traded/transported production, can increase crop and food diversity. Also non-local production is only typically more efficient, and less impactful, not always either of them, sometimes, and in some ways, its worse by those measures.

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