bruce...though i made a mistake with the word 'guarantee', my point is still valid i think...
it was in the dec meeting that the fed decided to give itself the option of announcing a bias change at the time of said bias change...
as you know, in the past we would only learn of a bias change 6 weeks after the fact when the minutes would become available...the dec change gave them the option of disclosing a bias change in real time, but not the requirement...in other words, they still CAN change the bias w/o telling us, but at least now they have the option of disclosure...
now, in the same dec meeting, they also said, if in the future we change the bias and then decide to inform the markets of this change, then it should be interpreted that the announcement of the bias change is to be a signal of the tightening...
i am searching for a link to the exact quote and will post it later...
this will be the MOST advertised tightening ever...the international risks are so great that they want everyone to be fully warned and prepared for it when it comes...to that effect, i learned today that greenspan has just accepted an open invitation to speak on the 17th...this is the day after the cpi number...this invitation has been there for 7 weeks, but he just accepted today which signals to some that he wanted another opportunity to warn the markets about the tightening...
or, i am wrong and greenspan is just talking the markets down...but...
if jobs and cpi do not show slowing then the fate will be sealed...
good luck to you... |
