Non-Tech | Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?


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To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (3531)2/9/2003 12:38:21 PM
From: Mad2   of 3543
 
Sure and those IRA accounts by their nature are stuck with the long side for those funds unless one buys the exchange traded vehicles that mirror a shot position.
I think its easier to follow a sector rotation approach rather than attempt to locate the winners.
I personaly think the secular bear market is here to stay for quite some time (with its ups and downs inbetween).
mad2

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To: Mad2 who wrote (3532)3/9/2003 7:52:30 AM
From: RockyBalboa   of 3543
 
No Party for Wall St. Bubble Anniversary
Saturday March 8, 4:05 pm ET
By Denise Duclaux


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Monday marks the third anniversary of the biggest party ever hosted by Wall Street, but investors will pass the day with gloom -- and a sizable dose of bitterness -- as the countdown to war and the erosion of the market continue.

The technology-stuffed Nasdaq composite index (IXIC) soared as high as 5,132.52 on March 10, 2000 -- hitting a level never seen in its roughly 30-year history and not likely to be witnessed again any time soon.

Sentiment took a 180-degree turn the following three years, and next week will highlight the startling shift in mood as the deadline for a war on Iraq looms, the hunt for terror suspects intensifies and economic data paint a dreary picture.

Market watchers say risk-averse investors will steer clear of stocks next week, leading to feather-light volume and more declines after this week's slump in the major market gauges.

"We will see heightening of tensions next week," said John Davidson, president and chief executive officer at PartnerRe Asset Management, which oversees more than $5 billion.

Wall Street will be waiting to see whether the United Nations backs a second resolution that calls for war on Iraq if it fails to disarm. But President Bush has warned he is ready to strike with or without a green light from the U.N.

With war appearing imminent, worries are mounting that a military strike will incite more attacks against the United States and put the economic recovery in danger. Add to that growing tensions with North Korea, and the Nasdaq's record three years ago is just a grim reminder of changing times.

"The bottom line is: The confluence of all these exogenous factors is challenging even for investors who have been in business for decades," said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

ANY RALLY WILL BE BRIEF

The United States, Britain and Spain on Friday delivered a March 17 ultimatum to Iraq to cooperate fully with disarmament demands or face war. Three major nations with U.N. veto power remained opposed to military action. But Bush said on Thursday he was ready to wage war with or without U.N. approval.

March 17 now becomes zero hour before the United States and its allies unleash the more than 300,000 troops committed to the Gulf region. Market watchers say they expect stocks to rally once the bullets fly as a cloud of uncertainty over the market lifts, but they warn gains will be fleeting.

"If the war goes well, it might have some momentum for a while, but that doesn't mean all our worries go away," said Philip Dow, director of equity strategy at RBC Dain Rauscher, explaining that a strike could ignite anti-American sentiment and trigger attacks against the United States.

Stocks enjoyed a brief pop on Friday after a Pakistan official said two sons of Osama bin Laden were possibly arrested in Afghanistan. Other reports threw the arrests into question, but hopes are mounting on Wall Street that the United States is closer to snaring bin Laden. An actual capture of the al Qaeda leader may spark a hefty -- but brief -- rally.

"The sons got about 85 points out of the Dow and we are not even sure which sons they are or if they were captured or not," Riley said. "It would be encouraging if we caught bin Laden in that there has been success in the pursuit of terrorists. But the FBI has stated there are still many out there that could cause problems even if the leader is captured."

North Korea is another hot spot that's sidelining investors. The United States said on Friday North Korea has declared a maritime exclusion zone in the Sea of Japan, signaling it might be planning a missile test and again raising regional tensions.

"You have North Korea staring you in the face when Iraq is over," Dow said.

EARNINGS, DATA TAKE BACK SEAT

The U.N. vote comes during a week with few major corporate earnings and just a handful of key economic reports, leaving investors at the mercy of the fast-changing geopolitical scene.

Corporate earnings from drug maker Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY - News), food manufacturer H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE:HNZ - News), supermarket chain Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR - News) and software designer Adobe Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:ADBE - News) may offer a slight distraction. But the rush of fourth-quarter earnings season has passed. Most companies have already confessed to investors that the outlook isn't bright, given the struggling economy and geopolitical tensions.

A government report on retail sales on Thursday isn't expected to paint a rosier picture. Retail sales for February are expected to dip 0.4 percent versus a decline of 0.9 percent in January. Stripping out autos, retail sales are seen down 0.1 percent versus a jump of 1.3 percent in January.

"Retail sales are not going to do well," said Stanley Nabi, managing director at Credit Suisse Asset Management, which oversees $55 billion in North America.

Investors will pay special attention to Thursday's data on weekly jobless claims. The number of Americans lining up for first-time unemployment benefits is expected to total 419,000 in the week ended March 8, compared with 430,000 the previous week.

On Friday, a government report showed the U.S. economy last month suffered its worst drop in jobs since the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks.

"The employment report was supposed to be weak, but it was much weaker than expected," Davidson said. "But I think an awful lot more attention is on geopolitical events than economic data. It's already stolen the spotlight."

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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (3533)3/9/2003 1:33:16 PM
From: Mad2   of 3543
 
Its interesting to go and read the comments on this board 3 years ago
Message 13233453
Message 13301531
mad2

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To: epicure who wrote (5)9/1/2003 12:38:25 AM
From: Sr K   of 3543
 
My guess is that we will have a terrorist event- I hate to pick an exact date

That was accurate.

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To: Sr K who wrote (3535)9/1/2003 12:40:53 AM
From: epicure   of 3543
 
I was a bit off on the timing- as I always am. :-) I always think things are going to happen more quickly than they do.

But thanks for noticing.

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To: Sr K who wrote (3496)9/1/2003 1:05:49 AM
From: Sr K   of 3543
 
I finally checked the early posts, and I did win with #reply-6957374. I numbered my entry and had 50 words.

But later Sir Auric said he'd pay the $5G or quietly leave the board.

Also, see my #reply-17687403.

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To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who started this subject4/26/2004 1:53:32 PM
From: KeepItSimple   of 3543
 
I'm not sure if anybody won the tulip-o-mania award, but it is interesting to note that nationwide median home sale prices DECLINED this month for the first time, well, EVER:

apnews.myway.com 

could a top be in for that market?

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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (3538)4/29/2004 9:18:43 AM
From: Glenn Petersen   of 3543
 
Lycos once again put up for sale

Price is expected to be fraction of earlier figure


boston.com 

By Robert Weisman, Globe Staff

April 29, 2004

Web portal Lycos Inc., snapped up by a Spanish conglomerate for $12.5 billion in stock at the height of the Internet boom four years ago, is being put up for sale again. But this time the Waltham operation figures to fetch only a fraction of that May 2000 sales price -- probably $200 million to $400 million.

Current owner Terra Lycos, the Internet arm of multinational Telefonica SA, last month tapped the Lehman Brothers investment bank to explore a potential sale of its US flagship site, two people briefed on the plans said yesterday.

Among prospective buyers to whom Lycos is being shopped are several West Coast search companies, including Google Inc., Yahoo Inc., and Ask Jeeves Inc.

Lycos now employs about 200 people in Waltham, down from about 1,100 at the time of its sale to Terra. In February, it outlined plans to rebrand itself as a collection of specialty websites focused on personal connections. Executives said they would ask users to pay for new content and services revolving around relationships, careers, finance, health, blog-building, and other social networking fare.

Miguel Garzon, a Terra Lycos spokesman in Madrid, wouldn't confirm yesterday that his company was exploring a sale of the US operation. Its hiring of Lehman Brothers was first reported on the CNET News.com website. "As far as Lycos US goes, there are rumors from time to time," Garzon said. "We never comment on rumors."

Lehman Brothers spokeswoman Kerrie Cohen also declined to comment, as did spokeswomen for Google, Yahoo, and Ask Jeeves.

Lycos, launched in 1994 with technology developed at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, was one of the original Web portals and engineered the fastest initial public offering in history in 1996. The portal, which included such staples as Angelfire, Tripod, and Raging Bull, was among the most visited Internet content sites at the time of its sale.

Terra sought to use Lycos as a springboard to build up its global business, especially its Spanish language Web offerings.

Even before the sale closed, however, the value of Internet properties had plunged, beginning a technology decline that continued into 2003.

With the expected IPO of Google, interest in Internet and search properties is again growing, but finance professionals said yesterday that Lycos would be likely to sell in the range of $200 million to $400 million this time around -- not the lofty premiums of the dot-com era.

Tripod founder Bo Peabody, who sold his site to Lycos in 1998 and became Lycos's vice president of network strategy until the sale to Terra, said another sale could be good for Lycos as well as a buyer. Peabody said the decision to put it on the market was a recognition that an entrepreneurial company would be better positioned than a conglomerate to capitalize on Lycos as the market heats up again.

"They've had good management on the ground in the US," said Peabody, now managing partner at the Village Ventures investment firm in Williamstown. "They've kept up with the trends in the online advertising and subscription markets. They've really been doing what they can, given the environment that they've been operating in."

Robert Weisman can be reached at weisman@globe.com.

© Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (3539)9/19/2004 3:37:34 AM
From: 10K a day   of 3543
 
pull my finger

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From: Axxel12/7/2006 10:48:45 AM
   of 3543
 
Exciting, eh?

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