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To: LG who wrote (83211)	5/26/2002 11:07:56 AM
From: Patrice Gigahurtz	of 84056

I was bored this morning and started playing around with some 2002 numbers and here are my findings but keep in mind I'm no expert (of course). Anyway, from day one of 2002 (more exactly on 1/4/02) the Naz dropped from 2059 to 1716 (on2/21/2002) and thats something like a 16.7% tank. So in less than a two month period the Naz dropped a significant 16.7% However, from that 1716 on 2/21/02 the Naz rallied to 1929 on 3/11/02 for a increase of 12.4% and that increase took place in less than a month period. Oh but stay tuned as from 1929 (3/11/02) the Naz tanked anew a dramatic 18.5% to 1573 on 5/7/02. That tank took almost two months. A somewhat modest, but still significant, 10.7% comeback was achieved from 1573 (5/7/02) to 1741 for a 10.7% increase in less than 10 days ! Oh, but stayed tuned as the Naz has since gone down since 5/7/02 so far a tad over 4%........ (To be continued).... Thanks PS: How the heck are we supposed to make money in this market ?????

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To: Patrice Gigahurtz who wrote (83213)	5/27/2002 10:25:58 PM
From: Tom Pulley	of 84056

Patrice, re: How the heck are we supposed to make money in this market ????? Since buy and hold isn't working this year, I suppose you either have to be an exceptional stock picker or a market timer. I'm going the market timing route. The indicators I watch continue to deterior so I'm going to 25% short at the open Monday. This year the indidators haven't captured all the ups and downs you quoted but at least haven't lost money: 2002: Ytd model up 4% versus qqq down 21%. Buys and sells as follows: - January 2nd: buy qqq at open 39.57......$100,000 in qqq. - January 4: sell qqq at open 41.95.......$106,005 in cash. - January 7: short 25% of account at open 42.11......$79,504 cash, $26,491 short qqq. - February 7: buy back qqq short at $36.00......$109,829 in cash. - February 20: go 50% long, buy qqq at 34.9......$54,904 in qqq, 54,915 in cash. - February 22: go to 100% long at open, buy qqq at 33.61.....$107,780 in qqq. - April 25: Went to 110% long at open at qqq of 32.3. - May 14: Went to 100% long on open at qqq of 32.05.....$102,687 in qqq. - May 15: Went to 100% cash next open at 32.54....$104,247 cash. - May 27: Will go to 25% short at next open. Tom

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To: LG who started this subject	6/9/2002 8:04:20 PM
From: Tom Pulley	of 84056

My timing model is going from 25% short to 100% cash Monday morning on the open. This bear may have longer to run and we haven't seen capitulation, but on the other hand we appear to be approaching a bottom (at least on a short term basis) and no need to get greedy. Nasdaq bullish percent has come down a long way and Nasdaq is not too far from from the Sept'01 bottom so we should be in the ballpark of a bottom. Below are the calls from my model posted here this year: At close on Friday June 7 (qqq at 28.30), YTD my timing model is up 7% versus qqq down 28%. - January 2nd: buy qqq at open 39.57......$100,000 in qqq. - January 4: sell qqq at open 41.95.......$106,005 in cash. - January 7: short 25% of account at open 42.11......$79,504 cash, $26,491 short qqq. - February 7: buy back qqq short at $36.00......$109,829 in cash. - February 20: go 50% long, buy qqq at 34.9......$54,904 in qqq, 54,915 in cash. - February 22: go to 100% long at open, buy qqq at 33.61.....$107,780 in qqq. - April 25: Went to 110% long at open at qqq of 32.3. - May 14: Sold 10% of long position going back to 100% long on open at qqq of 32.05.....$102,687 in qqq. - May 15: Went to 100% cash next open at 32.54....$104,247 cash. - May 27: Went to 25% short at next open at 31.47. - June 7: Will go to 100% cash next open. Tom

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