Cathy,
10-20% down is generally considered corrections. 20%-30% is grey area where some pundits will say it is still correcting while the others will argue that it is crashing. Over 30% is generally bear market leading to recessionary environment. I will go along with the idea that it is correction, if NAZ rebounds to 3800-4000 next week on the tails of earnings announcements. If that does not help, then look for NAZ under 3000, probably around 2500 during spring. If AG raises 50 basis points instead of 25 in May, DOW will be tracking NAZ also.
Oh, Friday brought back lots of memories back from black Monday of 1987. Except I slept as well as any other day last night because I had not bought anything on Margin. Hell, except for a small E-trade account, none of my other accounts allow margin (my own preference)trading. During the week of black Monday, I received more Western Union mailgrams than I ever received during rest of my life. Fortunately, my siblings were kind enough to lend me money so I did not have to file for bankruptcy. I owed so much after everything was sold, that it was very depressing. Now I just wonder how many new investors are in the same predicament as mine in 1987. Unfortunately, they have not experienced such down draft in the market. I hear that even at 50% margin, there is more equity margined than 1987 when 80% was allowed. I just hope this becomes an eyeopener for these new set of investors.
Having said that, personnally I recommend to MAX that I would not even be on the short side. If you have cash, gradually go long in decent companies. If you are fully invested, reevaluate your portfolio.
Well enough of my rant.
regards,
JK |
