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 Coffee Shop | Richard Ney and the Wall Street Gang

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To: LG who wrote (307)6/16/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: REvaluer@AOL.com   of 492
 
Larry,

R. Ney thinks that there will be a short term rally then a drop. He thinks it will bottom out roughly in July.

If you look at the S & P 500 it has been moving lower since April. I think that this is a more accurate measure of the market than the dow. As most of the readers of this tread know, the dow serves as a stalking horse. It distracts the public from the real action of the market. On Cbnc it was announced that Goldman Sachs will sell 10% of the company to the public. The timing is expected to be in the fall of 1998. I wonder if this offering will be timed to a strong rally? I think it will.

Regards

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To: BenYeung who wrote (305)6/16/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: REvaluer@AOL.com   of 492
 
Ben,

Your observation of the dow's seesawing action is right on target. The specialists are encountering selling as they move their stocks to wholesale levels. This would explain all the rallies around the dow 9000 level. Presently they have moved lower than 9000 (8633 when I last checked the market). The media expects a 20% to 25% decline (Cnbc in early June). I think that this is just another lie to get the public to sell out on the initial drop (say 10%, which is roughly to the dow 8000 level). When the public expects one thing, often, the opposite happens. While the public is expecting the "other shoe" to drop, the market will be moved up. I think this will occur in the fall of 1998. Its interesting to note that Goldman Sachs is going public in the fall. I think that the partners of Goldman Sachs will use the planned rally as a great opportunity to sell their stock to the public.

Regards,

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To: m-top who wrote (294)6/16/1998 4:12:00 PM
From: m-top   of 492
 
Houston ..... We have a pin ..... Over.

Will the blunt edge of a book do? In this market, absolutely. Just finished the liquidation of my AMZN calls moments ago and loaded the boat with June 65 puts. Though we may see an extremely sharp open tomorrow in AMZN, it will crash tomorrow. I'm guessing 25 or so points. Why is this key? Because its the perfect alibi to trash the techs first, then the broader market. Odds are, we see 8k this week - if not tomorrow.

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To: m-top who wrote (310)6/17/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: m-top   of 492
 
Check this out (bank hearings today):

biz.yahoo.com 

Looks like the big boys have been burning the midnight oil. The timing of the inevitable collapse of AMZN and senate bank hearings is too compelling to pass up. Lets see now, overseas up sharply last night enabling a sharp rally on the US open this morning. After a sharply higher open on AMZN this morning, AMZN begins to crack. By early afternoon, the decline in AMZN accelerates and carries over to the tech sector and the DOW. Mid afternoon, senate banking talks breakdown and the bank sector plummets. The DOW follows suit. Hello DOW 8k. Sound too far-fetched? Maybe, but my $$ are betting on this one. Opportunities like this do not come around too often.

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To: m-top who wrote (310)6/17/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: Kailash   of 492
 
Hi John -

A lonely thread to make such a devastating prediction! Over on the Amzn thread, the shorts are finally throwing in the towel, some of them going long - kind of awful to watch. It would be fun if you turned out to have called the top - someone's got to be right eventually!

Kailash

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To: m-top who wrote (311)6/17/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: LG   of 492
 
John, Clinton buying Yen with US Dollars...hhhmmm.

CNN Headline news, talking up the DOW rally every five minutes. Gee, this should get the public to buy. Time for the S/MM's to distribute stock and eventually go short to accommodate created demand.

Then, down to the 200 SMA.

Regards,
LG

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To: Kailash who wrote (312)6/17/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: m-top   of 492
 
I'm confidant about AMZN crashing later today (tomorrow at the latest). AMZN has been a well orchestrated squeeze. Plain and simple. There is no genuine buying there - just a lot of hype about entering the CD market which facilitates the squeeze. Loaded up again on AMZN July 70 puts this morning. Still short the RUT and OEX. I am suprised (and a little worried) about todays 200+ rally. I expected no more than 120 or so. I may be wrong about the overall market after all but will give it till this afternoon to unfold. Given the timing of the AMZN squeeze and todays Senate hearings a short play is hard to pass up.

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To: m-top who wrote (314)6/17/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: LG   of 492
 
John, I do not see the market falling apart today.

The Dow has upside resistance at 8885 (+/-) 5. That is the center of the Dow's moving trading channel I follow. I believe the Dow is trading in the lower half of that channel until it closes above that center.

I expect oscillations inside this moving channel until contact with the Dow's 200 SMA. Then I expect it to begin its next leg up. Maybe its last leg up.

Regards,
LG

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To: LG who wrote (315)6/17/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: m-top   of 492
 
Larry, Only time will tell. I'm giving it till about 3:30 today to decide wether to hold or not (my June options). I'm still hanging on to my september puts regardless. The Junes I need to move on soon - one way or the other. After lunch is when the fireworks generally start so stay tuned. Need to keep the market pumped up till the lunchtime crowd is back to work! Gotta pay for those margin calls some how. IMO too much internal damage has been done to the market over the past several weeks for a sustainable rally from here. We need the big down move in the DOW first to complete this correction. Still, I'm skeptical if this were to happen if it would not be the first leg down of a lengthier bear market. BTW - what level is the DOW 200 day MA at anyway?

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To: m-top who wrote (316)6/17/1998 1:08:00 PM
From: LG   of 492
 
John, your post was close to 1pm EDT. So, it is after lunch there.

I will not discount the possibility that the market as measured by the DOW will not dip down to the 200 day SMA. A dip may well be used to accent the final bottom. Scaring some investors out, so the S/MM's can buy, with the obvious intention to move the market back up to sell those newly acquired shares back, at higher prices of course.

The Dow's 200 SMA was 8288.59, based on Tuesday's close.

Regards,
LG

EDIT: Sorry bout the run on sentence!

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