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To: Capitalizer who started this subject8/1/2001 3:13:45 PM
From: ms.smartest.person
   of 1983
Bandwidth Glut? Not In Metro Areas
Mark Lewis,

Dark is the fiber and dark is the mood among telecom investors, whose dreams of riches based on bandwidth abundance have gone a-glimmering. First the new long-haul networks stumbled, and now metro-area specialist Metromedia Fiber Network has faltered. It's enough to shake the faith of the most ardent fiber-optics visionary.

But the dream lives, and so for that matter does Metromedia (nasdaq: MFNX - news - people), which today announced that it has made some progress toward stabilizing its funding situation. Dain Rauscher Wessels analyst Jonathan Atkin says investors may have overreacted to Metromedia's funding woes. The stock rallied yesterday but still closed under a buck, and Atkin says the company certainly is worth more than that. Evidently Citigroup's (nyse: C - news - people) Citicorp banking unit agrees, since it decided to give Metromedia a little more breathing room as the telecom upstart scrambles to line up more financing.

The encouraging fact is that despite Wall Street's year-long telecom meltdown, money has continued to flow to promising metro-area fiber plays--especially to smaller, private firms like Looking Glass Networks of Oak Brook, Ill. Looking Glass is busy laying fiber in major cities to help bridge the gap between the long-haul data networks and the local businesses that are crying for access to cheaper bandwidth. A few months ago the firm lined up another $275 million to complete the first phase of its buildout in major cities. A big chunk of that funding came from Cisco Systems (nasdaq: CSCO - news - people). The big telecom equipment firms have cut back on their vendor financing, yet Cisco still saw fit to kick in $100 million for Looking Glass.

Meanwhile, upstart local exchange carriers such as Telseon, Cogent Communications and Yipes Communications remain focused on using Gigabit Ethernet [GigE] technology to bring low-cost bandwidth to metro business customers.

The optimistic take on the supposed fiber glut is that it is no glut at all--all that dark fiber will be lit in due course, when the "last mile" bandwidth bottleneck problem is resolved. Ethernet-based firms will be a big part of the solution, especially after the 10-gigabit Ethernet standard is established. Just ask fiber-network firm Level 3 Communications (nasdaq: LVLT - news - people). Level 3 recently announced that demand for its metropolitan dark fiber has been boosted by the growth of GigE as "the interface of choice in end-user network systems."

Level 3 notes that GigE allows a metro dark-fiber customer to significantly cut network expenses. That means that the incumbent local carriers, such as the Baby Bells, eventually will have to respond by embracing the new technology. "Over the next five years, the architecture of the metropolitan public network will have to change dramatically, if gradually, to remove this latest bottleneck in the end-to-end network," the Yankee Group's Marian Stasney writes in her new study on Gigabit Ethernet and the metro market. The GigE, she says, "will achieve market penetration over the next four years and be instrumental in enabling consumers and enterprises to finally achieve the type of experience they are looking for from the network."

The Baby Bells see what's ahead, which presumably is why BellSouth (nyse: BLS - news - people) and SBC Communications (nyse: SBC - news - people) are among the big names supporting the Metro Ethernet Forum, founded last month to push for faster adoption of Ethernet technology in metro networks. The group's membership list is studded with such heavyweights as Cisco and Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people), as well as such Ethernet-focused vendors as Extreme Networks (nasdaq: EXTR - news - people).

Certain technical challenges remain to be overcome, but they will be, and meanwhile firms like Metromedia and OnFiber Communications will be providing the necessary metro-area fiber. So will the national network builders such as Level 3, which are increasingly focused on the metro markets. When all the pieces of the last-mile puzzle finally are in place, that supposed fiber glut might abruptly disappear, proving that those wild-eyed bandwidth visionaries were right after all.

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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (1582)8/1/2001 6:35:45 PM
From: tcd
   of 1983
Cramer says to dump MFNX:

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To: Capitalizer who started this subject8/1/2001 8:13:22 PM
From: Sans Souci
   of 1983
Cramer vs. my grandmother...

Update from my grandmother:

Spoke to her today. She continues to hold both her MFNX and EXDS (and still plans to hold for at least 3 months).
Said that MFNX's announcement today was "very encouraging", and it suggests that the company will survive. Told me to stop watching the stock too closely! (I went long as well), and said that "the B.S. will really fly over the next 2 weeks". She figures we could easily see 50 cents again, but not much less. On the other hand, if some form of financing happens, MFNX could "easily triple in a day", and then ramp up to 5 bucks or so over the following months.

You can trade against her, but most of the time, she's right. What can I say? Cramer?

That's it for now folks.


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To: tcd who wrote (1583)8/1/2001 8:15:56 PM
From: MeDroogies
   of 1983
Cramer also said dump AOL several times as it ran up...he said dump ORCL as it ran up....and then jumped on both their bandwagons right before they collapsed.

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To: tcd who wrote (1583)8/1/2001 8:17:46 PM
From: zebraspot
   of 1983
Most investors dumped Cramer a long time ago....

Bill Miller, of Legg Mason Value Trust(the only money manager to beat the S&P every one of the past ten years) is bullish on the group for the long term, owning LVLT, GLW, and others(maybe including MFNX, according to rumors).

That means much more to me than what the hairless, rabid, (unsuccessful) ex-trader-cum-media-clown may be frothing about at any particular moment.

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To: Sans Souci who wrote (1584)8/2/2001 1:28:06 AM
From: GraceZ
   of 1983
Oh man, never bet against a little old lady. -g-

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To: GraceZ who wrote (1587)8/2/2001 1:48:38 AM
From: elmatador
   of 1983
OT I know another guy who uses his grand ma as coach. It is Gustavo Kuerten today's Nr. 1 Tennis player.

He says he owes part of his success to the advices of the old lady.

Sometimes I suspect -because she is a German immigrant- that is part of his marketing for the Germans public who love her. Couple of weeks ago the Daimler brass drove her inside a convertible Merc right inside the Stuttgart tennis court where he had own the title.

Do old ladies buy Mercedes convertibles? Humm, Not in this market down turn I guess.

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To: elmatador who wrote (1588)8/2/2001 2:23:41 AM
From: GraceZ
   of 1983

Do old ladies buy Mercedes convertibles?

I know a couple little old ladies that drive one. You have to reward yourself with something in a market downturn. -g-

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To: Capitalizer who started this subject8/2/2001 12:03:19 PM
From: Sans Souci
   of 1983
Can someone please post the Cramer article? Many thanks in advance.


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To: Capitalizer who started this subject8/2/2001 1:08:05 PM
From: Curtis E. Bemis
   of 1983
Metromedia Fiber Sues 360networks For Cut Cable

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Metromedia Fiber Network Services Inc. (MFNX) filed a lawsuit against 360networks Inc. (TSIXQ) contending that the bankrupt optical network service provider cut some of Metromedia's fiber optic cables after Metromedia failed to make payments of more than $3.4 million.
In its defense, 360networks said it cut the cable only after notifying Metromedia Fiber that the agreement to provide a conduit to house the cable had terminated as a result of Metromedia Fiber's failure to cure payment default.

Under a February 1999 agreement, 360networks built an 80-mile conduit to house Metromedia Fiber's fiber optic cables around Seattle. The cable system is used for transmitting voice, data and video services for Metromedia Fiber's customers.

360networks sent a June 20 default notice to Metromedia Fiber after it allegedly failed to pay Nov. 20, 2000, invoices of more than $3.4 million. Metromedia Fiber has paid only about $3.9 million of the $7.3 million purchase price under the agreement.

While not disputing that it owes 360networks some money under the agreement, Metromedia Fiber said that it's likewise owed "substantial amounts" by the bankrupt company under various other agreements. 360networks has failed to reflect these offsets in its default letter, Metromedia Fiber asserted in its lawsuit filed Friday with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.

The lawsuit seeks a preliminary and permanent injunction blocking 360networks from further damaging or compromising the fiber optic cable, and enjoining the company from interfering with Metromedia Fiber's customer relationships.

360networks contacted certain Metromedia Fiber customers directly, including Verizon Communications (VZ) and Allegiance Telecom Inc. (ALGX), and said it was reclaiming the fiber optic cable and cutting off services to Metromedia Fiber customers, according to the lawsuit. Metromedia Fiber said that the agreement doesn't give the company the right to contact its clients or interfere with its business relationships. "Defendant's willful actions are unlawful, malicious and calculated to destroy Plaintiff's ongoing business relationships and reputation, and potentially place in jeopardy the lives and property of members of the public," Metromedia Fiber asserted. It added that the cable may conceivably be used for 911 emergency service, local government and national security services, or other essential public services that, if terminated, could result in the loss of life and property.

At least one of Metromedia Fiber's customers, Allegiance, has the line traffic of its customers operating on the cable. And other Metromedia Fiber customers, including Verizon and Global 1, have ordered fiber and might be testing it. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has also ordered fiber that includes the Seattle site for use in connection with services provided to its customers.

Instead of destroying the fiber optic cable, 360networks should have brought a lawsuit for payment, Metromedia Fiber said.

Metromedia Fiber wants the court to force 360networks to immediately repair and replace any damaged cable and to block the company from contacting any of its customers.

Responding to the suit, 360networks said revenue from contracts with Metromedia Fiber and similarly situated customers are "vital" to its reorganization. The company accused Metromedia Fiber of ignoring its payment demands for the last eight months - until it exercised its contractual right to remove Metromedia Fiber's property from its system.

As it advised the court at a July 25 cash collateral hearing, 360networks noted that it will need to renegotiate a minimum cash balance requirement with its pre-petition lenders in September. "The key factor the pre-petition lenders will focus on during that negotiation is the Debtors' ability to demonstrate between now and then that the Debtors will be able to collect revenue after their chapter 11 filings," the company said in court papers obtained Wednesday by Dow Jones Newswires.

The court must appreciate the "devastating consequences" the company will face if Metromedia Fiber succeeds in thwarting its necessary and appropriate revenue collection efforts, 360networks added.

The company called Metromedia Fiber's setoff assertion a "frivolous" theory and asserted that none of the requisite elements for a temporary restraining order have been demonstrated. Metromedia Fiber hasn't shown irreparable harm, likelihood of success on the merits, and a balancing of the hardships tipping decidedly in its favor, the company said.

The court hasn't yet scheduled a hearing on the matter, according to the most recent court docket.

360networks filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on June 28. Metromedia Fiber is facing its own liquidity problems. As reported, Metromedia Fiber struggled to find parties willing to commit $180 million to extend a bank credit line to Aug. 15. Some question whether Metromedia Fiber will be able to find further financing. Metromedia Co. (X.MMM) is Metromedia Fiber's majority shareholder.

-Carol McCleary, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-628-8916; carol.mccleary@

(This story was originally published by Dow Jones Newswires)\www\Nasdaq\news\35\2001\08\02\200108021225DOWJONESDJONLINE000491.html&usymbol=MFNX

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