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To: dan.rosengold who wrote (52697)	4/20/2012 12:59:56 PM
From: brokenst0nes	1 Recommendation of 54981

The OEM mobile embedded is moving from pure NAND to MCPs with NAND + mobile DRAM Dan, this is not the case, the large majority are still discrete, ie separate NAND chip. In fact mobile DRAM is normally in a package on package(PoP) with the Application Processor(AP), sitting on top with the AP below. The only difference I've noted in recent times was for the latest iPad, where the DRAM is separate. Something to do with the latest A5 and its thermal management. Speculation on my part, but with iPhone having space issues compared to larger sized tablet format, that they might have to combine the DRAM and NAND together, and that could explain the MCP.

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To: HenryMiller who wrote (52703)	4/20/2012 1:00:24 PM
From: Bargain Hunter	of 54981

Are they not listening to their customers? I suspect that they did listen to their customers and that the customers provided overly optimistic projections of their needs. When the orders did not materialize or were cancelled SanDisk had to scurry around and find other ways to dispose of the product, including the white label market. It would be interesting to know to what degree the pricing weakness in the white label market was caused by SanDisk selling into it. Having lost the expected pure NAND business it was too late to switch to MCP products because they had not planned for it, at least in the time frame that would have been required.

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To: HenryMiller who wrote (52703)	4/20/2012 4:17:14 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	of 54981

SNDK is trading below where it traded six years ago. It has gone from a tech leader to a near commodity producer, albeit with vertical integration to improve retail margins. Unfortunately, retail is not where the recent action has been. A question asked at the cc yesterday concerned what percentage of SNDK products were embedded. Sanjay emphasized that the 32% figure INCLUDES iNAND. If you read between the lines, what he was really saying was that virtually none of SanDisk's production for cell phones, tablets, and similar devices was embedded, and that almost everything was in the form of a NAND card – a product that the chief buyer of NAND, Apple, doesn't need. Art

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To: brokenst0nes who wrote (52707)	4/20/2012 4:25:51 PM
From: dan.rosengold	of 54981

The OEM mobile embedded is moving from pure NAND to MCPs with NAND + mobile DRAM Dan, this is not the case, the large majority are still discrete, ie separate NAND chip. In fact mobile DRAM is normally in a package on package(PoP) with the Application Processor(AP), sitting on top with the AP below.The only difference I've noted in recent times was for the latest iPad, where the DRAM is separate. Something to do with the latest A5 and its thermal management. Speculation on my part, but with iPhone having space issues compared to larger sized tablet format, that they might have to combine the DRAM and NAND together, and that could explain the MCP. I think that this is changing as we speak. First, Toshiba statement: "...The Japanese company focused on making NAND flash memory for digital cameras and other devices. But firms like South Korea'sSamsung Electronics Co. that can supply a full lineup of memory products, including DRAMs and flash, are gaining an edge in drawing clients. Toshiba now believes adding Elpida's cell-phone-use DRAMs to its offerings is crucial to surviving in the chip industry. " Message 28046199 And now SanDisk: "...the mobile industry market share is becoming increasingly concentrated (my note: APPLE and Samsung), and to fully address the mobile market opportunities now requires a more diversified portfolio of embedded offerings, which include not only iNAND™ but also new embedded solutions such as customer-specific multi-chip package (MCP) and other unique and proprietary embedded products. We have been somewhat late in adapting our product roadmap to the broad set of requirements of the leading OEM customers, and this limits our embedded growth opportunity in the second quarter." Q112 Prepared Remarks investor.sandisk.com I also find the following Judi quote telling on possible acquisition: "...We now expect free cash flow, exclusive of M&A, to be negative in the first half of the year and positive for the second half of the year." Sandisk has never before used this term AFAIK. I see 2 options: Elpida related, SSD. Rational for buying with Toshiba the Elpida DRAM mobile only if they need to secure massive MCP shipments to Apple Iphone 5. They can convert the PC DRAM fab to NAND over time. Maybe some kind of JV with Toshiba on MCP's where SanDisk contribute $500M and Toshiba owns the FABS. SanDisk to hold 50.1% of the venture so that it can consolidate the full 100% revenue. I don't really see a need for SSD related acquisition. I think that the market will hate everything related to DRAM unless carefully structured.

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To: clean86 who wrote (52706)	4/20/2012 6:49:32 PM
From: NHP	of 54981

>> I don't trade options but I'm thinking higher range means higher price. Anybody care to comment? << FWIW My recent experience writing SNDK Calls (strike 60) has been rewarding. Every call written has produced a profit on the call itself. Of course, the shares which covered the calls have not fared very well. I gave my 15-year-old grandson a gift of 100 shares of sndk just so he could get some experience with the stock market. He used the 100 shares to cover the 1 each Oct 60 call which he wrote for $2.60. At the time he wrote the call, if my memory serves me, sndk was around 50 or 51, and the remaining duration of the call was 9 months. The reason I mentioned the prices and duration above is because it gives me a hint as to what I can expect for the $60 Leaps I purchased today. I paid $2.00 for the SNDK Jan 2014 Leaps (Strike 60). The remaining duration for these leaps is about 18 months. The spread on these Leaps gets quite large at times. Even so, I put my bid in at the ASK price to make sure the order was executed. NHP Custodian account

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From: dan.rosengold

4/22/2012 6:15:13 AM

1 Recommendation of 54981

SSD revenue grew from $75M or 5% of total revenue in Q4-11 to around $90M, the vast majority is OEM. Total embedded in Q1 was $220M, so INAND which is the majority of the other embedded revenue was probably less than $100M. I’d say that this revenue level is embarrassing given how big the mobile embedded market is and given all the bragging PRs from SanDisk. While SanDisk grew its OEM business immensely from 2008, it failed to really diversify the business and it is still company that sells cards and has nice stream of L&R. Nothing really to justify all those outrageous options grants.

However, Major shift from mobile cards/OEM to embedded is expected from Q3 for SanDisk. I'm expecting SanDisk to move from 20% of embedded revenue out of total product revenue in Q1 to around 40% in Q4. This growth should come from Apple and SSD growth. While I don't expect Apple related revenue to have great margins, it will improve SanDisk margins as it replaces low-margin revenue of wafers and white label sales and similar to slightly higher margins from selling mobile cards to OEM. The tables below are based partially on information from article regarding the NAND industry and my estimates for SanDisk per the information it provided. While there is an oversupply right now, it is not severe and SanDisk could have gotten away from this in Q1 if it had less dependence on the white label cards channels.

The stock will rise because it is cheap, even damn cheap, and is operating in volatile but growing industry. But, lack of leadership and vision may cap the stock appreciation. Sanjay is not as greedy as Eli was, but is even less capable. Sanjay is probably very gifted engineer but makes only a mediocre CEO.

Daniel A. Berenbaum - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division

And what percentage of your OEM business now is card versus embedded?

Sanjay Mehrotra

We have said that's about -- just keep in mind that our SSD business is increasing, right? So when we talk about OEM business, that now just not only includes cards and embedded and, of course, USB drives, but also now includes SSD. So our total card business, which includes selling to these OEMs, as well as selling to the white label channels, that total business, that's what we classify. That's where the cards are addressed. And we have said before that within OEM, our embedded business is approximately -- for first quarter, approximately 32% in the first quarter. About 1/3 of our OEM business is cards -- is embedded. So the rest is cards plus SSD. And SSD is included in that total number of OEMs. But let me just be clear again, the 33% is embedded.

Did you understand what he said? I really hope that he interacts with his subordinates in a more articulated way.

Thanks god, SanDisk has at least very capable CFO

Betsy Van Hees - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

And then one last question, in terms of your OEM business, how much of that OEM business was embedded?

Judy Bruner

Sanjay answered that question earlier, and what he said is that the embedded was about 1/3 of our OEM business, with the OEM business including our SSD businesses.

There it is, short and clear!

Billions of GB
	Industry	Industry	% growth	AAPLE	APPLE %
	2011	2012		2012	2012
Smartphone	3.10	5.70	84%	3.2	56%
Tablets	1.60	3.60	125%	2.7	74%
SSD	1.70	3.30	94%	0.9	28%
All others (cards,mp3.usb etc)	10.75	17.40	62%	1.2	7%
Total	17.15	30.00	75%	8	27%


Revenue(Billions of $)

Industry:	Industry	Industry	%	% growth
	2011	2012	2012
Embedded	7.91	9.62	42%	22%
All others	13.29	13.28	58%	0%
Total	21.20	22.90	100%	8%


SanDisk	Q1-11	Q1-12	%	% growth
Embedded	0.30	0.22	20%	-28%
All others	0.90	0.88	80%	-2%
Total	1.20	1.10	100%	-8%



SanDisk	2011	2012	%	% growth
Embedded	1.20	1.68	33%	40%
All others	4.10	3.42	67%	-17%
Total	5.30	5.10	100%	-4%



Sandisk Embedded forecast		2012	q/q % growth
Q1		0.22
Q2		0.25	14%
Q3		0.45	80%
Q4		0.76	69%
Total		1.68

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From: FUBHO	4/22/2012 7:47:24 PM
	of 54981

Android this week: Cheaper Asus Transformer Pad reviewed; HTC One S impresses By Kevin C. Tofel Apr. 22, 2012, 1:46pm PT The popular Asus Transformer Prime now has a cheaper cousin called the Transformer Pad TF300and reviews are starting to trickle in. Asus opted to cut a corner or two to reduce the price on the Pad, but it still offers a similar form factor: A capacitive touchscreen tablet running Google Android 4.0 with an optional $150 keyboard dock. The Pad tablet alone retails for $380 with 16 GB of internal storage and a 32 GB model is available for an extra $20. Continues... http://gigaom.com/mobile/android-this-week-cheaper-asus-transformer-pad-reviewed-htc-one-s-impresses/

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