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To: Sam who wrote (52589)4/3/2012 9:22:20 PM
From: growthstocks
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Sam, I admire your strong stance, but at what point do you throw in the towel that this is a commodity type DRAM business? Margins are never predictable, yet you defend this company at all costs. This is exactly why this company has a PE that is in the single digits and will stay that way. Terrible business to be in, in my opinion and when supply/demand gets out of balance, it takes many quarters to make up the margin hit. This industry must consolidate the players, otherwise you will continue to see this downhill slide, imo.

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To: growthstocks who wrote (52590)4/3/2012 9:48:10 PM
From: Sam
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I've already said pretty much everything I have to say about this. At least, until I hear more details about the supply-demand situation, which probably won't be happening until the CC in a few weeks. The fact that the company has a strong balance sheet and a very low PE should limit the damage to the stock price until then.

But as far as more consolidation goes--IMHO, the piece I posted from Intel implies that there will be an enormous need for SSDs over the next few years. The current NAND capacity--even including Samsung's just announced fab in China--won't meet the need if those projections are close to the mark. As for being like DRAM--I dispute that as well. NAND requires very smart controllers in order to be reliable, durable and cost effective. And the controllers aren't simple commodities. And they are an essential part of the chip, without which it is just a useless piece of silicon.

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To: growthstocks who wrote (52590)4/3/2012 10:08:29 PM
From: HenryMiller
3 Recommendations   of 58206
 

Two great years...to get back to where it was two years ago. Forgive me if I remain unimpressed.

If Q4 guidance put the stock in the penalty box for a minor infraction, this is a major penalty.

Earnings estimates will come down to $3.65-$3.75 for 2012 (I won't be surprised if the bears are under $3.00) . Slap a 10-12x PE on that and you've got a $36-$45 stock.

$45 is now the TOP of the range IMHO.

No one in their right mind is going to step up here and buy this POS given how weak its business is and how overbought the market is.

I'll take a shot at the $42-$43 level for a quick trade off long term support. But I expect that to break. $37 is where buyers feel comfortable buying. And I have no doubt we'll get there in the coming weeks/months.

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To: Sam who wrote (52586)4/3/2012 10:16:13 PM
From: clean86
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Berenbaum must be thoroughly enjoying his dinner tonight for the first time since around early 2009.

Yep and like a broken clock he's correct at least twice.

The challenge like you pointed out will be in making the jump to SSD until the Card and embedded market change again.

I can afford to be patient as I'm not invested in Sandisk shares at the moment.

I will buy if it gets into the mid $30's for a trade but not going to make another long term investment here for a very long time.

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To: HenryMiller who wrote (52592)4/3/2012 10:44:32 PM
From: growthstocks
   of 58206
 
I agree with you Henry. I have puts on the stock, sorry for the longs here, but I suspected they weren't doing well all along. Poor management execution on guidance to say the least.

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To: clean86 who wrote (52593)4/3/2012 10:46:10 PM
From: growthstocks
   of 58206
 
Clean, I think you have the right plan for this commodity. Though I think the $37/38 area is attractive, BUT only for a trade. This is not a stock anybody should hold, and for good reason. I believe this is the same type of stock as Micron, and that equals bad.

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To: growthstocks who wrote (52595)4/3/2012 11:22:47 PM
From: clean86
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I believe this is the same type of stock as Micron, and that equals bad.

A point you've made very clearly over multiple posts and probably something many who've owned Sandisk over the years have felt.

Better luck with your other trades as this one was obviously not a good experience.

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To: growthstocks who wrote (52595)4/4/2012 10:25:06 AM
From: donc
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..it does look like a massive top now at 52-47 range..

with the 200 ma at 45.50 roughly i think you might

get a good bounce at 40 to maybe 45..not much more..

donc

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To: HenryMiller who wrote (52592)4/4/2012 11:43:49 AM
From: HenryMiller
   of 58206
 
As expected:

Nomura: $3.70 for 2012.
UBS: $3.80 for 2012.

They are touting the 2nd half story as being intact (the rallying cry of all fools and charlatans).

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To: clean86 who wrote (52584)4/4/2012 12:20:42 PM
From: brokenst0nes
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SanDisk sell a whole bunch of embedded chips, surprised you don't know that. Also embedded, or no card slot is also a benefit to the overall NAND demand. When the device is replaced for whatever reason, the new device comes with a new 32GB chip, or whatever capacity, rather than the owner just moving the 32GB card from the old to the new device.

However, clearly SanDisk needs to sell more to the mobile device leaders, which are currently Samsung and Apple. Yes Samsung do produce their own NAND, but SanDisk does have some wins there, but they need more.

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