Technology Stocks | SanDisk Corporation (SNDK)


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To: brokenst0nes who wrote (52599)4/4/2012 12:45:04 PM
From: clean86   of 54982
 
I do know that Sandisk sells embedded NAND however I'm not certain how much of their embedded chips go to Apple for iPhone and iPad.

The point I was trying to make was that if Apple has the number one device and Sandisk has no exposure there it will be part of the reason they had to warn.

As the iPhone and iPad market share expand and the products that use Sandisk NAND shrink then Sandisk has to find new and better markets or suffer reduced earnings.

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To: OrionX who wrote (52575)4/4/2012 12:59:37 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer   of 54982
 
OrionX -- You hit the nail on the head:

Samsung is out to sell against everybody regardless of margins.

This is standard operating procedure. You may recall that not too long ago, when there was a glut in NAND, Samsung kept dropping prices, probably below cost, forcing SanDisk and other competitors to lower prices, and causing everyone to report losses. That was the point where Samsung offered $26 per share to buy SNDK. The strategy is clear. Force competitors out of business, or create such lousy pricing conditions that you can eventually buy competitors at bargain prices.

The Samsung offer was even worse: They really didn't have the kind of cash it would have taken to buy SanDisk, unless, of course, they had a direct line to the South Korean treasury.

Art

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From: sndklong4/4/2012 2:39:09 PM
   of 54982
 
Do you guys think maybe someone might come in and make an offer for SNDK, maybe a Toshiba or Sammy since it looks like the stock is going to get very cheap!!!

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To: sndklong who wrote (52602)4/4/2012 4:14:15 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer   of 54982
 
I've always thought that SanDisk would be acquired, sooner or later, by Toshiba, with help from the Japanese government providing dollars for the acquisition. I thought the price, however, might be closer to $65, but in the present circumstances, Toshiba might be able to get it for as low as $55.

Art

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To: HenryMiller who wrote (52598)4/4/2012 4:23:43 PM
From: HenryMiller   of 54982
 
And this, as expected, with the bears between $3.00-$3.40 for 2012:

blogs.barrons.com 

See you all in November...sooner if I can think of anything positive to say before then (doubt it) or if things get so bad that we get to my buy point of $37-$38 (more likely, I'd say).

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From: dan.rosengold4/4/2012 5:19:42 PM
2 Recommendations   of 54982
 
Two years ago in 2010, the day after Q1, SNDK stock stood at $42.22 after reporting $1.1B in revenue and $0.95 in EPS.

Now, after 2 years of tremendous growth in smart phones, tablets and buying its way into the enterprise SSD market, SanDisk is about to report $1.2B in revenue, a mere 8% increase over 2 years period, and EPS of just $0.65 or so.

The stock is now $44.5, more than $2 higher.



Nobody made money in SanDisk in that period except the management.

The sad truth is that, in fact, the management did excellent job and yet…



Q1 CC is going to be disastrous; SanDisk will have to take full year guidance down on revenue to last year numbers and gross margin to well below 2011 level. For Q2, after the embarrassing large miss, Judi will take extra cautious approach and I’m expecting dismal revenue and gross margin guidance.

I will be surprised if the stock holds the $40 mark the next day.

The current cycle of oversupply will reverse itself eventually as it always does, but not until Q3 or Q4. I see the low price of the year reached this month after the CC. The next wave will be the wave of SSD and if strong enough can lead to excellent gross margins and growth for a prolonged time before fading too.



My current financial model

Still a bit high on bit growth. Could be lower.




Bit growth

7%

14%

18%

28%

80%

(8%)

25%

25%

28%

77%

(2%)

-

75%

80%

ASP decline

(8%)

(7%)

(13%)

(13%)

(36%)

(18%)

(14%)

(5%)

(5%)

(42%)

(17%)

(15%)

(37%)

(35%)

COGS reduction

(8%)

(10%)

(11%)

(11%)

(31%)

(10%)

(10%)

(8%)

(8%)

(34%)

(12%)

(14%)

(32%)

(33%)

2011



2012



Guidance

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Year



1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Year



1Q Min

1Q Max

Y-min

Y-max

Product revenue

1,210

1,282

1,322

1,473

5,287

1,111

1,195

1,419

1,725

5,449





-

-

L&R

84

93

94

104

375

90

90

95

100

375









Total Revenue

1,294

1,375

1,416

1,577

5,662



1,201

1,285

1,514

1,825

5,824



1,300

1,350

6,200

6,600

COGS

736

752

789

901

3,178

746

839

965

1,137

3,687

793

783

3,782

3,828

Gross Prdfit

558

623

627

676

2,484



455

445

548

688

2,137



507

567

2,418

2,772

Gross Margin

43.1%

45.3%

44.3%

42.9%

43.9%

37.9%

34.7%

36.2%

37.7%

36.7%

39.0%

42.0%

39.0%

42.0%

Product GM

39.2%

41.3%

40.3%

38.8%

39.9%

32.9%

29.7%

32.0%

34.1%

32.3%









Operating expenses

189

220

210

227

846

225

235

250

260

970

225

225

975

975

Operating profit

369

403

417

449

1,638



230

210

298

428

1,167



282

342

1,443

1,797

%

28.5%

29.3%

29.4%

28.5%

28.9%

19.2%

16.4%

19.7%

23.5%

20.0%

21.7%

25.3%

23.3%

27.2%

Other Income

5

10

19

24

58

5

5

5

5

20

5

5

5

5

Tax expense

123

135

144

156

558

75

69

97

139

380

92

111

463

577

Tax %

32.9%

32.7%

33.0%

33.0%

32.9%

32.0%

32.0%

32.0%

32.0%

32.0%

32.0%

32.0%

32.0%

32.0%

Net

251

278

292

317

1,138



160

146

206

295

807



195

236

985

1,225

# Shares diluted

243

244

243

246

245



246

246

247

248

247



246

246

248

248

EPS

1.03

1.14

1.20

1.29

4.64



0.65

0.60

0.84

1.19

3.27



0.79

0.96

3.97

4.94



Street:

0.91



4.69



1,340



6,440

Annual ASP/Cost/Bit growth table



Q4-2010

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

60.8

39.2%



Quarter

ASP%

Price

Bit %

Bit

Revenue

Cost%

cost

COGS

GM



1Q-2011

(8%)

92.00

7%

107.00

98.44

(8%)

92.00

59.85

39.2%



2Q-2011

(7%)

85.56

14%

121.98

104.37

(10%)

82.80

61.41

41.3%



3Q-2011

(13%)

74.44

18%

143.94

107.14

(11%)

73.69

64.49

40.3%



4Q-2011

(13%)

64.76

28%

184.24

119.31

(11%)

65.59

73.47

38.8%



Year 2011



77.05



557.15

429.26





259.22

39.9%



1Q-2012

(18%)

53.10

(8%)

169.50

90.01

(10%)

90.00

60.83

32.4%



2Q-2012

(14%)

45.67

25%

211.87

96.76

(10%)

81.00

68.43

29.3%



3Q-2012

(5%)

43.39

25%

264.84

114.90

(8%)

74.52

78.70

31.5%



4Q-2012

(5%)

41.22

28%

339.00

139.72

(8%)

68.56

92.68

33.7%



Year 2012

(42%)

44.80

77%

985.22

441.40

(34%)



300.64

31.9%








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To: dan.rosengold who wrote (52605)4/4/2012 9:41:04 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer   of 54982
 
Do you think that management miscalculated market demand, thinking that Apple competitors would do better than they actually did?

Art

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To: dan.rosengold who wrote (52605)4/4/2012 11:04:35 PM
From: Thehandle30   of 54982
 
Yes and last year when sndk dropped that big in the summer it was a screaming buy under 38. I agree after Aril 19th cc call sndk is really going down. :(. I love sndk.

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From: Sam4/5/2012 9:33:43 AM
   of 54982
 
Taking Note: Is Samsung's phablet the shape of things to come?
By Jeremy Wagstaff and Miyoung Kim
April 5 | Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:42am EDT
reuters.com 


(Reuters) - It's been likened to a piece of toast, a device for elephants and a throwback to the 1980s-style brick phone.

And yet, despite all the sniggering, Samsung Electronics has sold 5 million of the phone/tablet Galaxy Note, helping drive its booming handset profits in the quarter just ended.

More than a freak hit, consumer and design experts believe the surprise success of the "phablet" marks a deeper shift in the fast-paced world of mobile devices.

The most obvious thing about the Note is its size. Its 5.3 inch (13.5 cm) screen is almost as wide as the iPhone's screen is long. And then there's the stylus.

Where Apple's co-founder, the late Steve Jobs famously ridiculed the idea of using a pen to interact with a screen, Samsung has partnered with Japan's Wacom Co Ltd , a market leader in digital pen technology, to come up with something less clunky. As part of Samsung's marketing blitz it has set up artists in malls to draw portraits of passers-by.

Samsung says it hopes to sell at least 10 million Notes devices this year.

But why, exactly, are people buying it?

Samsung's Lee Jui Siang, mobile phone chief for Southeast Asia, Oceania and Taiwan, says people want to only carry one device - and especially one that allows handwriting. He points to a global survey of 5,000 smartphone users which indicated demand for handwritten annotations was particularly high in Asia.

But the Note's designer sees things slightly differently. Samsung Vice President Lee Minhyouk said the design risk was "breaking a taboo" about keeping handsets small enough to fit easily in your hand.

"Smartphones are more about entertainment. The Note was created by simply breaking that taboo and focusing more on the new functions that smartphones require," Lee told Reuters.

MATURITY, DIVERSITY

The Note has its detractors. It's a "polarizing device", says IDC analyst Melissa Chua. Gizmodo, a popular gadget website, has routinely insulted the device's size, attracting strong reactions, for and against. Its most recent post in late March elicited nearly 1,500 comments, a third more than the next most commented article that month.

But others say this misses the point.

What the Galaxy Note has illustrated, design and industry experts say, is that as the mobile device market matures, it opens up the possibility of greater diversity as users and manufacturers experiment with form factors.

"We're seeing a shift in the marketplace and there's room for diversity," says Shivesh Vishwanathan, senior solutions architect at Persistent Systems. "Smartphone devices are personal to people and are being used in unique ways - which explains why we're seeing some strong reactions for as well as against 'phablets'."

Stuart Lipoff, a technology consultant and past president of the IEEE Consumer Electronics Society, compares it to the mature TV market: from small sets parked in the kitchen to wall-sized mounted screens.

"This is part of the normal evolution of any category of consumer electronics as it matures," he says. "As any product category matures you see an expansion in the range of features, performance and price."

For Samsung, it's not just a boost to the bottom-line, but also a glimpse of a bigger prize.

The Note suggests Samsung, which last year became the world's top smartphone maker, may have found a way to eat into the tablet market, where it remains a distant second to Apple's iPad.

"Samsung has successfully cracked open the 5-inch device market, where Dell failed miserably a couple of years ago," said Lee Kakeun, an analyst at Hana Daetoo Securities in Seoul. "It's now expanding into the bigger-sized tablet market, where its stylus could differentiate it among non-iPad tablets and help it expand market share in the tablet market, too."

While competitors try to catch up - LG Electronics has recently unveiled the 5-inch Optimus Vu - Samsung is already forging other niches.

It has just introduced the Galaxy Pocket, with a 2.8-inch screen, and websites are awash with speculation that the Galaxy SIII, due for launch in the next few months, will have a 4.8-inch screen, halfway between the SII and the Note.

Samsung can experiment like this, analysts say, because it controls the process.

"Samsung's integrated business model - for instance, it makes its own application processors and AMOLED screens - is the biggest ingredient of Samsung's winning formula," says Daniel Kim, a Seoul-based analyst at Macquarie, "which in our view cannot be easily copied.

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From: sndklong4/5/2012 3:07:14 PM
   of 54982
 
Toshiba out of running for Elphida, do you guys think maybe just maybe, oh well it dosent hurt to dream!!!

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