SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) | Stock Discussion Forums

To: HenryMiller who wrote (52588)	4/3/2012 8:57:40 PM
From: Sam	of 55220

That's silly. They have just had 2 great years. People say that they are so cyclical, but they have only lost money in one year since 2005: apps.cnbc.com I think that that streak stretches back to 1999, but am not going to bother looking for a graph that goes that far. In any case, they are a very different company today than they were in 1999/2000. People are disappointed in them because they had such high hopes that they will finally eclipse their all-time high of $84 or whatever it was. IMHO, ti is plausible that that will come in time. But not this year. And probably not next year either. Let's see how the SSD revolution goes. In the meantime, we'll have to trade it like virtually every other semiconductor stock.

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To: growthstocks who wrote (52590)	4/3/2012 9:48:10 PM
From: Sam	of 55220

I've already said pretty much everything I have to say about this. At least, until I hear more details about the supply-demand situation, which probably won't be happening until the CC in a few weeks. The fact that the company has a strong balance sheet and a very low PE should limit the damage to the stock price until then. But as far as more consolidation goes--IMHO, the piece I posted from Intel implies that there will be an enormous need for SSDs over the next few years. The current NAND capacity--even including Samsung's just announced fab in China--won't meet the need if those projections are close to the mark. As for being like DRAM--I dispute that as well. NAND requires very smart controllers in order to be reliable, durable and cost effective. And the controllers aren't simple commodities. And they are an essential part of the chip, without which it is just a useless piece of silicon.

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To: growthstocks who wrote (52590)	4/3/2012 10:08:29 PM
From: HenryMiller	3 Recommendations of 55220

Two great years...to get back to where it was two years ago. Forgive me if I remain unimpressed. If Q4 guidance put the stock in the penalty box for a minor infraction, this is a major penalty. Earnings estimates will come down to $3.65-$3.75 for 2012 (I won't be surprised if the bears are under $3.00) . Slap a 10-12x PE on that and you've got a $36-$45 stock. $45 is now the TOP of the range IMHO. No one in their right mind is going to step up here and buy this POS given how weak its business is and how overbought the market is. I'll take a shot at the $42-$43 level for a quick trade off long term support. But I expect that to break. $37 is where buyers feel comfortable buying. And I have no doubt we'll get there in the coming weeks/months.

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