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To: growthstocks who wrote (52550)4/2/2012 11:58:06 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer
   of 58202
 
That's news? Berenbaum is always negative on SNDK, and he's had the same, consistent view for at least three years, during which time the share price has more than doubled. It's like playing red on roulette, always hoping that, despite time after time coming up black, eventually the law of averages will pick red.

Actually that's not true. If black comes up time after time, statistically speaking, the probability is that the next time will also be black! If MKM likes Berenbaum's recommendations, that's their business. They certainly won't get mine.

Art

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To: growthstocks who wrote (52553)4/2/2012 12:08:05 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer
   of 58202
 
One can predict stock price on a number of criteria, including investor sentiment. However, if one tries to tie stock price to earnings, and then predicts stock price will fall, that is mere conjecture. Here's why.

As you know, or should know, a company is obliged not to discuss its pending earnings in the month prior to the release of its financial statement. However, if a big change in company fortunes has taken place, which could run counter to earlier guidance, then the company is required to make a public statement in a timely manner. Here we are at the end of the first quarter. Nothing, I repeat NOTHING has occurred that would require SanDisk to modify its earlier guidance – either positive or negative. If something had occurred, then SanDisk would be required by law to reveal it.

The only conclusion one can draw at present in regard to SanDisk's first quarter earnings is that they are on target. If the earnings are growing at somewhere near 15% and the stock is still selling at 9 times forward looking earnings, well, something is out of kilter. I can't predict prices, but I can, on the basis of what the company has said, or not said, predict that earnings for the first quarter are likely to be -- on target.

If I predict anything else, like an analyst for MKM, then there may be another agenda. . .

Art

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (52558)4/2/2012 1:51:21 PM
From: Michael Kim
1 Recommendation   of 58202
 
If that were true Art then there would never be any upward/downward earnings surprises since all would have been disclosed before the actual earnings release. But we know that there are surprises and at times big surprises both good and bad.

While there are regs requiring disclosure of events that may materially impact earnings, much of this is subject to interpretation as to what qualifies and what doesn't. I worked at a public company where we had such a situation...our attorneys wanted to disclose a material event negatively impacting our unreleased earnings that they feared would go so far as to trigger a shareholder lawsuit, our CEO did not want to issue a warning so we ultimately ended up with a earnings surprise that nobody was happy about. In the end there was no shareholder suit or SEC investigation, so not disclosing seemed to have worked in our situation...

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To: Michael Kim who wrote (52559)4/2/2012 3:08:40 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer
   of 58202
 
Michael, I agree that failure to disclose a material event may not trigger any action, legal or otherwise. However, in determining whether there could be unannounced earnings surprises, up or down, one should also be familiar with the company history and whether there is any tendency for management to avoid reporting undesirable events immediately.

In the case of SanDisk, they've been quite good at alerting investors and the public to any changes with a substantial impact. I have no reason at this point to suspect they are hiding any facts or related data from shareholders or the investing public. In fact, in my direct contacts with management, beginning in 1998, they've been more than forthcoming, pointing out things I may have missed in their financial reports.

So again, I doubt that we are in for major surprises for the first quarter -- either up or down. What we see in the way of stock price related to earnings or potential earnings derived from earlier guidance is a company whose stock, for whatever reason, is selling at a price-earnings ratio that is inconsistent with the earnings growth rate.

Art

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From: Sam4/2/2012 3:34:22 PM
   of 58202
 
What follows is a partial Intel press release from a few weeks ago. I am posting it mainly to put out their numbers on storage requirements, which I find a little incredible. In the bolded paragraph below (my bolding).

New Intel Server Technology: Powering the Cloud to Handle 15 Billion Connected Devices

New Intel® Xeon® Processor E5-2600 Product Family at Heart of a Flexible, Efficient Data Center

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

New Intel® Xeon® processor E5-2600 product family is built to scale to meet the demands of an increasingly connected world.
  • New server processors deliver up to 80 percent1,2 improved performance compared to the prior generation.
  • New Intel® Integrated I/O with PCI Express* 3.0 can up to triple3 the movement of data into and out of the processor so information can be made available faster than ever to support data-hungry applications.
  • Best data center performance per watt with over 50 percent1,4 gain on SPECpower_ssj*2008 plus extends platform power control with Intel® Node Manager and Intel® Data Center Manager.

SANTA CLARA, Calif., March 6, 2012 – Addressing the incredible growth of data traffic in the cloud, Intel Corporation announced the record-breaking Intel Xeon processor E5-2600 product family. These new processors deliver leadership performance, best data center performance per watt1,4, breakthrough I/O innovation and trusted hardware security features to enable IT to scale. These processors are not only at the heart of servers and workstations, but will also power the next generation of storage and communication systems from leading vendors around the world.


Forecasts call for 15 billion connected devices5 and over 3 billion connected users6 by 2015. The amount of global data center IP traffic is forecasted to grow by 33 percent annually through 2015, surpassing 4.8 zetabytes per year, more than 3 times the amount in 20116. At these levels, each connected user will generate more than 4GB of data traffic every day – the equivalent of a 4-hour HD movie. This will increase the amount of data that needs to be stored by almost 50 percent per year7. In order to scale to meet this growth, the worldwide number of cloud servers is expected to more than triple by 20158.

"The growth in cloud computing and connected devices is transforming the way businesses benefit from IT products and services," said Diane Bryant, Intel vice president and general manager of the Datacenter and Connected Systems Group. "For businesses to capitalize on these innovations, the industry must address unprecedented demand for efficient, secure and high-performing datacenter infrastructure. The Intel Xeon processor E5-2600 product family is designed to address these challenges by offering unparalleled, balanced performance across compute, storage and network, while reducing operating costs."

The key requirements to enable IT to scale are performance, energy efficiency, I/O bandwidth and security. With the best combination of performance, built-in capabilities and cost-effectiveness, the new Intel Xeon processor E5-2600 product families are designed to address these requirements, and become the heart of the next-generation data center powering servers, storage and communication systems

full PR (with footnotes) at the link--
newsroom.intel.com

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From: shlomi cohen4/3/2012 1:42:02 AM
   of 58202
 
February SIA data from GS :

NAND Flash – A 12% mom increase in NAND Flash sales was well above seasonality of
down 3% due to stronger units. Units were up 13% mom (compared to seasonality of down
5%) and ASPs were down 1% (in line with seasonality). Quarter to date, NAND sales are up
2% (slightly ahead of seasonality of down 1%) driven by stronger units (up 3% vs.
seasonality of down 2%) and slightly better ASPs (down 1% vs. seasonality of down 2%).
Our companies under coverage with exposure to NAND flash are SanDisk, Micron, and
Intel through its IM Flash JV with Micron.

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From: slacker7114/3/2012 8:07:12 AM
   of 58202
 
Samsung to spend $7 billion on NAND fab in Xian, China

eetimes.com

Peter Clarke

4/3/2012 6:17 AM EDT


LONDON – South Korean Electronics giant Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. has said it will spend $7 billion on a NAND flash wafer fab in Xian, a city in the northwest of China, according to reports the reference regulatory filings as their source.

Samsung announced it was looking to build NAND flash memory fab from which it could service Chinese makers of smartphones and tablet computers in December 2011. It was reported at the time that the plant would likely begin production with a 20-nm class manufacturing process and was intended to be in commercial production before the end of 2013.

Samsung is reported to have said Monday (April 2) that it will spend $2.3 billion on the first stage of construction of the plant with a total of $7 billion to be spent over the next few years. Although Samsung has wafer fabs in Austin, Texas, the Xian wafer fab would represent the company's largest overseas investment in chip production, a Bloomberg report said.

The Xian location was selected because "the production and R&D bases of global IT corporations are concentrated around Xian and the site is well-equipped with industrial infrastructure," The Chosunilbo quoted a Samsung spokesperson as saying.

Korea and China are destined to become Samsung's primary locations for NAND flash memory production.

Samsung said in September 2011 that it had commenced production at Line-16, a wafer fab capable of producing DRAM and NAND flash memories, at the company's Nano City Complex in South Korea's Gyeonggi province and on which it said it had invested 12 trillion Korean won (about $10.2 billion). Construction of that fab began in May 2010 with equipment installation completed one year later. Trial production began in June 2011 with commercial production following in September.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (52563)4/3/2012 9:10:33 AM
From: Sam
   of 58202
 
That capacity will be needed. That is why I posted the release from Intel yesterday--clouds will be using SSDs, both for performance and for energy savings.

Forecasts call for 15 billion connected devices5 and over 3 billion connected users6 by 2015. The amount of global data center IP traffic is forecasted to grow by 33 percent annually through 2015, surpassing 4.8 zetabytes per year, more than 3 times the amount in 20116. At these levels, each connected user will generate more than 4GB of data traffic every day – the equivalent of a 4-hour HD movie. This will increase the amount of data that needs to be stored by almost 50 percent per year7. In order to scale to meet this growth, the worldwide number of cloud servers is expected to more than triple by 20158.

"The growth in cloud computing and connected devices is transforming the way businesses benefit from IT products and services," said Diane Bryant, Intel vice president and general manager of the Datacenter and Connected Systems Group. "For businesses to capitalize on these innovations, the industry must address unprecedented demand for efficient, secure and high-performing datacenter infrastructure. The Intel Xeon processor E5-2600 product family is designed to address these challenges by offering unparalleled, balanced performance across compute, storage and network, while reducing operating costs."

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From: brokenst0nes4/3/2012 4:48:58 PM
1 Recommendation   of 58202
 
finance.yahoo.com

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From: MorganBucks4/3/2012 5:09:50 PM
   of 58202
 
Blackberrysales fell off a cliff Samsung and Apple are the 2 wireless big sellers right now.SanDisk will have to sell more to Apple or wait until there is a strong third player again to beat estimates going toward it seems.

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