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 Technology Stocks | SanDisk Corporation (SNDK)

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To: Sam who wrote (50617)8/15/2011 1:16:50 PM
From: growthstocks   of 54981
 
Sam, I guess if that is the case, SNDK may not participate further through any rally the market gets in the short term. I would have never thought I would be hanging onto $46 stock from over a year ago. I am willing to hold this another 6-9 months, but if it's not anywhere near $46, I'll probably have to let it go and cut my losses. As Art pointed out, SNDK has totally underperformed over the last 5 years to the overall market, so I figure two years of me buying this at $46 and not getting any return is probably appropriate to let it go if 6-9 months goes by and it's still in this general area. Maybe they should think about selling the company at that point, especially if their earnings accelerate again going into next year, but the stock doesn't advance.

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To: growthstocks who wrote (50620)8/15/2011 1:24:14 PM
From: Sam1 Recommendation   of 54981
 
Well, it is true that the stock has been a disappointment even as the company itself has flourished over the past 2.5 years or so. The dramatic downturn in NAND in '07-08 was disastrous for the stock and almost disastrous for the company. The compression of the PE reflects the ill aftereffects of that downturn.

Right now, the company has something like $12/share of net cash and L&R income worth something like $18/share. So at today's price, the business is being valued at about $8/share. Backing out L&R earnings of about $1.50 leaves about $3 of earnings, or a PE of about 2.7 for the ongoing business.

Pretty astonishing. I find it hard to believe that it will remain at that level if SSDs actually do take off next year.

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To: Sam who wrote (50621)8/15/2011 4:07:45 PM
From: Mbert   of 54981
 
Well put Sam. The GOOG/MMI deal has people talking about undervalued IP portfolios now:

"7. This should highlight the value of various other stocks with very strong and undervalued IP. Tessera Technologies ( TSRA), CIENA Corp ( CIEN) and SanDisk ( SNDK) immediately come to mind, but there are many more."

minyanville.com 

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To: Sam who wrote (50621)8/15/2011 6:59:24 PM
From: growthstocks   of 54981
 
Thanks for the feedback Sam. I have to admit, it's hard to swallow checking my portfolio the last week and seeing everything else recovering except SNDK. It has done nothing since the market has turned around the last three days and I just don't understand why it hasn't even gotten back to near its earnings price after they reported. There is a bit of me that is concerned like last year when it plummeted down to $33. The thing that set that off was a new bond they were issuing. Now it may appear the market is back in fear mode of oversupply, who knows?

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To: growthstocks who wrote (50623)8/15/2011 7:21:28 PM
From: Sam1 Recommendation   of 54981
 
Last Aug/Sept the stock dived from the low 40s to 33 when fears of plummeting prices began to get traction. Especially TLC prices. The market erroneously believed that, because Sandisk produces so much TLC, they would be hurt. However, the market (once again) was wrong, since Sandisk sells much of its TLC at MLC prices, so they weren't hurt by it at all. The bond sale made the stock go from the mid-high 40s to low 40s, which was reasonable. But the real dive, the unreasonable one, was due to faulty understanding of the company.

As for why it is so low now--well, there are several reasons. One--the most reasonable one--is the macro economic environment. There are obvious risks there. Another--less reasonable, IMHO--is that non-Apple tablets aren't selling very well. Tablets are not a large part of Sandisk's business, they depend much more on handsets and smartphones. A third reason is the drop in NAND prices. I've already covered why any serious observer of the NAND market should have known that that was going to happen, and why it isn't a bad thing. Sandisk gets a premium for their products, and sell NAND solutions more than NAND chips--a very important distinction that many analysts don't seem to make.

Sandisk is a volatile stock, not for the feint of heart. These drops happen a few times a year. It seems to me to make a habit of being undervalued a fair bit of the time; I wish it would also be overvalued at least some of the time as it was in bygone years. However, the fall in '07-08 has allowed people like Mr. Berenbaum and others to successfully label it as "just a commodity" in the past few years, and it will take some more stellar results to finally dispel that label.

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To: Sam who wrote (50624)8/15/2011 8:16:21 PM
From: clean86   of 54981
 
Sandisk is a volatile stock, not for the feint of heart. These drops happen a few times a year. It seems to me to make a habit of being undervalued a fair bit of the time;

Very true statements and a reason Sandisk is a good trading stock.

If I could figure out when and how the market was going to price Sandisk better I could probably have retired quite well off by now.

At least it's a better ride than a merry go round.

Anybody seen the dramamine?

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To: Sam who wrote (50624)8/15/2011 8:28:42 PM
From: growthstocks   of 54981
 
Well, they've had stellar results now for the past two years. In fact, they are actually doing better by far and away from the prior years to the nand oversupply situation. I think you are correct, this company has been bunched in with the other DRAM guys. At least it's looking more and more like that is the issue even though SNDK is not like those other companies from a commodity standpoint. Anyhow, let's see where the stock is in 9 months, I am in it for the two year period to get results. We shall see

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To: Charlie Smith who wrote (50616)8/15/2011 9:44:10 PM
From: MorganBucks   of 54981
 
There is demand for other Tablets ..just not at the same price as Apple, if you do not have to pay a premium for an Apple product ,it is a
perceived as a
bargain by the consumer,since they are considered more expensive,. Apples plan of cutting Margins and b

uilding volume out of the gate on the IPAD worked. This is good for the NAND market.as it rocketed the category but eveyone else has to play Heinz (catch up)

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To: Mbert who wrote (50622)8/15/2011 10:07:31 PM
From: Cogito   of 54981
 
Is IP the next bubble?

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To: Sam who wrote (50001)8/16/2011 12:22:26 AM
From: Sam1 Recommendation   of 54981
 
I have kept up posting contract prices for a year now, so I suppose I may as well keep it going awhile longer, FWIW. Here are contract prices for the H2 Jul. Apologies for the formatting, the new SI setup doesn't seem to allow < pre > like it used to.


 NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Jul. 2H) 
                       LastUpdate:Jul.31 2011, 18:00 (GMT+8)
Type	Item        High Low  Average  Change  Change
  NAND 64Gb  8Gx8   MLC       13.00     5.90       8.16         (-13.10%)     (-11.94%)
 NAND 32Gb 4Gx8   MLC         6.60     3.25       4.37          (-9.90%)       (-4.41%)
 NAND 16Gb 2Gx8   MLC         3.30     2.20       2.74         (-12.18%)     (-15.38%)
 NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8   MLC    2.61     2.50       2.55         (-26.30%)     (-26.47%)

 NAND 32Gb 4Gx8   TLC         4.30     4.30        4.30          (-4.44%)       (-4.44%)

I am including the Dec 09 prices in the comparison table below, but
am measuring the change from H2 Dec 2010. Quite a change for earlier pricing. However, as others have pointed out, it is questionable how much these prices actually reflect Sandisk pricing. They reported an ASP drop of 7% for Q2; as they have repeatedly said, a number of factors are involved in that, including perhaps most importantly product mix. It is pretty amazing how little the price has dropped since Dec 09, according to DRAMeXchange--the 64Gb dropped 27%, the 32Gb 22%, the 16Gb 16%, and the 8Gb 42%. Those numbers used to a good year's drop, and here it is for over a year and a half. However, my guess is that we will see some more serious price drops over the next 6-12 months as 19 and 20nm production matures from Sanshiba and Mintel. It will be necessary to make SSDs more attractive to buyers.

Item     H2 Dec 09     H2 Dec 10    H2 Jul 11     Change since
         High Price   High Price    High Price     H2 Dec 10
64Gb       $18.00      16.00        13.00           -18%
32Gb         8.50       9.30        6.60            -29%
16Gb         4.80       3.90        3.30            -15%
8Gb          4.50       3.00        2.61            -13%

Here are past contract price tables.

NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(May. 2H) 	LastUpdate:May.31 2011, 16:32 (GMT+8)
                                               Average   Low
Type	Item          High      Low   Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	19.50	6.70	9.39   (-8.66%  (-11.84%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	10.50	3.40	4.85  (-15.80%  (-19.05%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	3.70	2.60	3.12  (-11.36%)  (-18.75%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.50	3.40	3.46   (0.00%)  (0.00%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	4.50	4.50	4.50  (-8.54%)  (-8.16%)

  NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(May. 1H) 
LastUpdate: May.16 2011, 18:46 (GMT+8)
                                               Average   Low
Type	Item          High      Low   Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC    19.50	7.60	10.28  (-1.15%)  (-1.30%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC    10.50	4.20	5.76   (-3.68%)  (-4.55%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC     4.00	3.20	3.52   (-6.88%)  (-8.57%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC   3.50	3.40	3.46    (0.00%)   (0.00%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC    5.00	4.90	4.92    (0.41%)   (0.00%)

NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Apr. 2H) 
LastUpdate:Apr.29 2011, 18:00 (GMT+8)
                                               Average   Low
Type	Item            High    Low   Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	19.50	7.70	10.40  (-2.26%) (-2.50%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	10.50	4.40	5.98   (-1.97%) (-4.35%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	4.10	3.50	3.78   (0.00%)   (0.00%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.50	3.40	3.46   (0.00%)   (0.00%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	4.90	4.90	4.90  (-2.00%)  (-2.00%)


NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Apr. 1H)
LastUpdate:Apr.15 2011, 18:06 (GMT+8)
                                               Average   Low
Type	Item            High    Low   Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	19.00	7.90	10.64  (2.11%)  (3.95%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	10.00	4.60	6.10   (3.04%)  (4.55%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	4.10	3.50	3.78   (1.07%)  (0.00%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.50	3.40	3.46   (1.76%)  (3.03%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	5.00	5.00	5.00   (0.00%)  (0.00%)



NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Mar. 2H)
LastUpdate:Mar.25 2011, 14:45 (GMT+8)
                                               Average   Low
Type	Item            High    Low   Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	19.00	7.60	10.42   (2.96%)	 (5.56%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	10.00	4.40	5.92    (4.59%)  (4.76%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	4.00	3.50	3.74    (2.19%)  (2.94%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.50	3.30	3.40    (3.03%)  (6.45%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	5.00	5.00	5.00   (0.00%)  (0.00%)


NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Mar. 1H)
LastUpdate:Mar.15 2011, 18:41 (GMT+8)
                                             Average    Low
Type	Item          High      Low  Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	19.00	7.20	10.12 (8.35%)  (0.00%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	10.00	4.20	5.66  (5.60%)  (0.00%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	4.20	3.40	3.66  (4.57%)  (3.03%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.50	3.10	3.30  (10.00%) (6.90%)

NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Feb. 2H) 
LastUpdate:Feb.25 2011, 16:28 (GMT+8)
                                              Average    Low
Type	Item          High      Low  Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC    16.00	7.20	9.34  (-1.68%)  (0.00%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC     9.30	4.20	5.36  (-0.37%)  (0.00%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC     3.90	3.30	3.50  (-1.69%)  (-2.94%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC   3.10	2.90	3.00  (0.00%)   (0.00%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	4.30	4.30	4.30  (0.00%)   (0.00%)

NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Feb. 1H) 
LastUpdate:Feb.15 2011, 14:19 (GMT+8)
                                              Average    Low
Type	Item          High      Low  Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	16.00	7.20	9.50   (0.00%)   (0.00%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	9.30	4.20	5.38   (0.00%)   (0.00%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	3.90	3.40	3.56   (0.00%)   (0.00%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.10	2.90	3.00   (0.00%)   (0.00%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	4.30	4.30	4.30   (0.00%)   (0.00%)


NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Jan. 2H) 	
LastUpdate:Jan.27 2011, 15:15 (GMT+8)
                                              Average    Low
Type	Item          High      Low  Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	16.00	7.20	9.50   (0.00%)   (0.00%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	9.30	4.20	5.38   (0.00%)   (0.00%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	3.90	3.40	3.56   (0.00%)   (0.00%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.10	2.90	3.00   (0.00%)   (0.00%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	4.30	4.30	4.30   (0.00%)   (0.00%)

NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Jan. 1H) 	
LastUpdate:Jan.14 2011, 17:58 (GMT+8)

                                              Average    Low
Type	Item          High      Low  Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	16.00	7.20	9.50  (1.06%)  (1.41%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	9.30	4.20	5.38  (3.07%)  (5.00%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	3.90	3.40	3.56  (2.30%)  (3.03%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.10	2.90	3.00  (3.45%)  (3.57%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	4.30	4.30	4.30  (2.38%)  (2.38%)


NAND Flash Contract Price in Memory Card/UFD(Dec. 2H) 	
LastUpdate:Dec.24 2010, 18:14 (GMT+8)
                                              Average    Low
Type	Item          High      Low  Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC	16.00	7.10	9.40  (2.40%)  (0.00%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	9.30	4.00	5.22  (0.00%)  (0.00%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	3.90	3.30	3.48  (0.00%)  (0.00%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.00	2.80	2.90 (-2.03%)  (0.00%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	4.20	4.20	4.20  (4.48%)  (7.69%)


NAND Flash current contract price(Nov. 2H) 	
LastUpdate:Nov.30 2010, 18:12 (GMT+8)

                                              Average    Low
Type	Item          High      Low  Average  Change    Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC    15.00	7.00	9.10  (-1.09%)  (-2.78%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC	9.30	3.60	4.98   (1.01%)   (0.00%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC	3.90	3.20	3.38   (0.00%)   (0.00%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC	3.50	3.10	3.26   (0.00%)   (0.00%)

NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 TLC	3.90	3.90	3.90  (-1.02%)  (0.00%)


Here is the comparison with contract prices for H1 August.

Type  Item             High    Low  Average  Average Change  Low Change
NAND 64Gb 8Gx8 MLC     16.20   12.00   13.82    (0.00%)    (0.00%)
NAND 32Gb 4Gx8 MLC      8.25    5.35    6.44   (-2.13%)    (-2.73%)
NAND 16Gb 2Gx8 MLC      4.40    3.80    4.10    (1.99%)    (2.70%)
NAND 8Gb 1024Mx8 MLC    3.80    3.70    3.76    (0.00%)    (0.00%)


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