Technology Stocks | Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT


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To: Michael Grant who wrote (28574)4/25/2012 4:44:19 PM
From: Maurice Winn1 Recommendation   of 29056
 
Footprint of Globalstar satellites. You can get a good idea by looking at the coverage map showing gateways. For example there are 3 in Australia. The one at Dubbo covers New Zealand. The one at Dubbo has even managed to deliver SPOT data from the western side of Rarotonga.

When there are millions of subscribers, even out of the way places such as Fiji, Tahiti and Hawaii could justify ground stations. But for now, that's totally uneconomic. Even mainland places still don't have them Africa, India and elsewhere.



When there are millions of subscribers, another constellation at 10,000km altitude could cover everywhere. Perhaps an equatorial orbit then a polar one too.

Until Globalstar stops trying to build a niche business and gets with mass marketing in the Cyberspace realm, they will remain uncompetitive. Internet businesses [which is what Globalstar is] need economies of scale to reduce unit costs to nearly nothing. If they don't, they get run over by companies which do.

Network effect and economies of scale are the name of the game.

Mqurice

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (28575)4/26/2012 3:33:39 PM
From: Michael Grant   of 29056
 
I seriously question that it would be possible for Globalstar to support "millions" of customers. 16.5mhz of bandwidth will support what? maybe roughly 100mbps total aggregate bandwidth? My back of envelope calculation tells me that this will support thousands (if even a thousand depending on what they're doing) per gateway, a long way from millions spread around the planet.

How do you get to millions?

Michael Grant

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To: Michael Grant who wrote (28576)4/26/2012 3:45:32 PM
From: Geoff Goodfellow   of 29056
 
re: I seriously question that it would be possible for Globalstar to support "millions" of customers.

excerpting PBS from Message 27868419
...Simplex is a great little device that simply sits in the guard band between two channels and recovers this data out of the noise floor. Has zero impact on system capacity on the main channels...
geoff

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To: Geoff Goodfellow who wrote (28577)4/26/2012 4:25:11 PM
From: Geoff Goodfellow   of 29056
 
more on mgrant's re: I seriously question that it would be possible for Globalstar to support "millions" of customers.

excerpting self [from 2009]: Message 25661917

... The Best Customer of any telecom business IS: the person who subscribes to The Service, PAYS the monthly service [or pre-paid] fee $whatever/month/year/etc and places one (or even zero) "Calls" or "transactions" (i.e. incurs "use" aka System "loading"). You want your system "loaded" with customers who minimize or don't use it! it's all about DIS-USE.

this is why they would not give MQ "free" minutes that They said would deplete the sat's bat's -- cuz the entire premise of these systems design, The Dearly Beloved included, is All About: DIS-USE.

sign up the customers, bill them monthly and structure the tariffs so that USE is "punished" and DIS-USE is "rewarded". plain an simple as that!

my light bulb moment of This Is The Model happened during the early days of mobile telephony (pre-cellular, MTS) and the hey-dayz beepers/pagers... take for example, SKYTEL's Best Customer(s) were the ones who paid the $69/month for nationwide numeric paging and got, say, just one page each month (or even better, a year). Their "worst" customer was the one who got many pages a week/day/[shudder]hour -- cuz once their channel was at capacity, they had to spend A Whole Lot of Moola to acquire a 2nd channel (if that was even possible).

so, you see, The Dearly Beloved's and Iridium's ideal customer is just like your cell tel co, or DSL or cable internet co, or land-line provider... make The Money on the perpetual recurring monthly service fee [which you want to be as HIGH AS POSSIBLE] and then do Your Very Best to DIS-courage use.

case n' point: when cell tell service "arrived" in the sf bay area where i was living at the time, it was $45/Month and 45 cents per min. no free or included minutes. today, at&t's best customer is the one who pays the $40/month and again, places one call per month. this is why the cell tel and other service co's are so resistant to lowering the minimum monthly fee cuz that's how they make the bulk of their revenue. DIS-USE.

this is why SPOT is just such a b e a u t i f u l idea and high potential revenue generator. they bill you annually. you go on your infrequent hikes/trips/whatevers -- but for the large bulk of its time, SPOT sits DIS-USED all the while the cash register at The Dearly Beloved just continues to collect the subscription fee. it's security/fear n' loathing based marketing/selling at its Very Best.

(as a closing aside, this is also why the US Broadband situation is in such a sad and worldly low ranking -- the [greedy] telecom providers here in Our/This Fine Country are perpetually and into perpetuity genetically "programmed/inclined" by their DNA lineage to charge you the highest recurring monthly fee possible all the while minimizing any investment in their networks DUE TO [increased/any] USE! even Netflix made Their Business Case on this very same model!)...

hope this helps,

geoff

PS: at the end of FY2011, GSAT had some 455K+ subscribers Doing Their Thing on a largely/mostly "empty" constellation... on that basis alone, it sure "looks" like there is plenty of "room"/"capacity" in them thar satellites and their attendant woefully underutilized THINGIES to support "millions" of subscribers going forward... at least from this high-school dropout shareholders grounded view/back of the envelope calculations...:D

g

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To: Geoff Goodfellow who wrote (28578)4/27/2012 12:11:59 AM
From: Maurice Winn1 Recommendation   of 29056
 
GG, the reason they claimed they couldn't give me better minute prices was that they claimed they had a "no better price" agreement with Primeco [or whoever it was back in the day] at about 50c a minute - but with a compulsory dirty great bundle of minutes, use them or lose them. Hopeless.

So they achieved zero sales instead of getting the whole thing going.

Your Dis-use theory is right to some extent. But there is a major problem with it. The subscribers have to get a consumer surplus to decide to buy. So GSAT can't make much money because few suckers will take the bait and be Dis-use arpu people. I doubt that Globalstar really thought they were creating a Dis-use system. But they do insist on creating an arpu-based system.

Fortunately, I bought just a small tranche of GSAT so it's no worry as it slides back down to 'stink price' levels, losing momentum as failure beckons again for the arpu plan and Dis-use sales.

Mqurice

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To: Michael Grant who wrote (28576)4/27/2012 12:20:52 AM
From: Maurice Winn1 Recommendation   of 29056
 
As GG wrote, millions of people can have a DeVice if they are not using it all the time. The original plan was for millions of phones to be "out there" and used quite regularly. I think there were 10 billion minutes per year available. So that would be 1000 minutes per year for 10 million people. That's pretty good usage.

Spread them over a normal distribution curve with some making no calls and some very busy and it would all work out just fine. But not with a $40 per month eat-all-you-like arpu plan. The bottom half of the distribution curve won't buy and the top half will use far too much for the Dis-use concept to work.

Mqurice

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To: Michael Grant who wrote (28576)4/27/2012 1:35:11 AM
From: Maurice Winn2 Recommendations   of 29056
 
The millions [and billions] who could use Globalstar would not be simultaneous users.

Most people would have their phone in the glove box or at home or not in use. The servers are happy to spring into action when somebody turns one on and decides to connect.

Globalstar originally was planned for millions of users [that was their business plan]. But they imagined they could charge dollars per minute for calls rather than the more realistic cents per minute [and preferably fewer than 10c per minute].

I have got a Globalstar phone. Mostly I don't need it. When I do go traveling, I might need it. I would put it in the car and take it if I could use it casually on an as required basis, instead of having to sign up for an arpu plan at $40 per month. Globalstar could sell millions of phones if they were like mine - mostly just sit there and pull them out now and then to make a call if out of coverage area, with a small charge. By small I mean tiny.

If Globalstar made the minutes/megabytes cheaper than terrestrial services and cheap enough to use casually, I'd start using it all the time when out and about in a car, in preference to the terrestrial services which are still very expensive.

Selling 5 million phones/DeVices with $200 profit would be a handy little $1 billion to help get the next constellation launched to help boost coverage and capacity not to mention provide an economic base for further DeVice development.

Mqurice

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (28580)4/28/2012 7:18:05 PM
From: Michael Grant   of 29056
 
Ok, I'll buy that you could have millions of users not using the system. Maurice, I totally agree with you that they could probably sign up more people if they charged less and charged a reasonable per minute charge. Someone should (or maybe has done?) a marketing experiment to learn exactly where the price curve is for this service. (Is this the price "elasticity" curve?) There has to be some intersecting curve of monthly price, per-minute price, and combination there of to maximize subscribers and minimize minutes (maximize dis-use) in order to maximize profits.

So, thinking about myself here, would I pay $40/month to have an unlimited plan? Would I actually USE it say more than 1hr a month on average? I would say no. I might use it an hour a year. For me, that makes it awfully expensive per minute. (Yeah, I'd be one of their perfect customers). However, I wouldn't plunk down my money for something like this, it's clearly not good value for money for ME. I might plunk down money if say the per minute charge was sub $1/min and no (or very little) monthly fee just to have something for emergencies which is roughly how I would use it. Am I typical? I would bet I was more typical than say your business person who travels into the wilds and needs a sat phone for real business (or a scientist). Those people are not paying the bill themselves are not typically cost-sensitive like me. A $40/month plan would be great for them but they might not even care.

So where the $40 ARPU plan at first blush seems great, it doesn't seem like it's great for everyone. On the other hand, it's totally true that it's only $500/yr and hey, that's not much these days! So you know, I could go either way on this, it will be real interesting to see how well it sells.

By the way, my friends who have Spots, we affectionately call them the "G-Spot". None of them have ever pushed the emergency button, but several have used them to track their location on google maps which is pretty cool I must say. That's use though, and it's not really discouraged as it's included with the service! How the G-Spot dissuades use is by not giving the user even a simple way to send any sort of (even the shortest!) message about the nature of the emergency.

Michael Grant

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To: Michael Grant who wrote (28582)4/28/2012 7:46:29 PM
From: Maurice Winn2 Recommendations   of 29056
 
GG is wrong about the Dis-use theory. In fact, the way Globalstar can maximize profits is to maximize use of the system. It should be used at full capacity non-stop. That way maximum benefits are transferred to subscribers. Subscribers derive zero benefit if they don't use the system, even if only once every decade.

It saves Globalstar no money at all if the satellites circle without being used.

The way to maximize use of the system, benefits to subscribers and profits to Globalstar, is to sell the available capacity to the highest bidders. If the capacity is worth only 0.1c per megabyte at present, then it should be sold at that price. That will encourage rapid sales of devices to use those megabytes and rapidly increase use so that the price will increase to a sustainable level, keeping the system full at all times.

There was some debate 13 years ago about whether unused megabytes could be carried from low-priced places to higher priced places later in the orbit. "Readware" argued one way, the Globalstar employee I dealt with argued another way. It's obvious that there is some limitation and it is unlikely to be simply the number of circuits in the satellites.

The limitations are the amount of electricity the photovoltaics can generate, the battery capacity, the cooling rate of the satellites, and the number of circuits.

The individual satellites vary in their orbits from summer to winter. Sometimes, satellites are nearly always in full sun shine [when the orbit is facing the sun]. Sometimes they are half night, half day [when the orbit is edge on to the sun]. When in darkness, the satellites have to operate by battery. The satellites can cool down when in darkness. When front on to the sun, the satellites will have more light on the photovoltaics, but will not be able to cool as well, the batteries will not be needed much.

We never did get information on what were the limiting factors. We still don't know.

Yes, they should have price elasticity curves for various gateways, but I bet they don't have one. If they were up on that sort of thinking, they wouldn't be pushing ARPU plans.

While "$500 isn't much these days", part of the problem is psychological - it's a pain the neck to have another monthly "plan" to deal with and one day try to stop. It's like having a biting insect sitting there sucking some blood. Totally irrelevant really, but so annoying. Most people have enough plans, subscriptions, monthly outgoings, and biting insects without adding more.

If I could buy a credit for $10 to use some megabytes with my Globalstar phone, I'd do it. But I can't so they get no money and I get no benefit. I find with such prepay plans that I'm pretty soon using it and buying more credit. I don't feel robbed at all. If I go away for a few months and don't use the credit, I'm not paying anything, I don't have to cancel the service or pay to restart it. I keep my credit for when I do come back and use some more.

I can afford to have all sorts of plans for all sorts of things but I don't because the hassle factor and financial insult exceed the likely use. That includes Globalstar.

Mqurice

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (28583)4/28/2012 9:49:40 PM
From: pcstel   of 29056
 
<There was some debate 13 years ago about whether unused megabytes could be carried from low-priced places to higher priced places later in the orbit. "Readware" argued one way, the Globalstar employee I dealt with argued another way.>


From Iridium's Life Expectancy Report

Wear and Tear

Because the volume of usage has been below the robust design parameters of Iridium’s satellites, there

has been less wear and tear on critical hardware components. That’s particularly significant in adding to

the expected life of satellite feeder link antennas, which transmit voice and data from the space

network to Iridium ground network infrastructure. The robust design of the Iridium constellation,

combined with onboard processing, has allowed Iridium to work around anomalies that could have

otherwise been life limiting.


iridium.com 

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