I am somewhat energy bull and somewhat peak-oiler, but I agree with your list of possible headwinds for oil.
IMHO, the oil-gas spread is just too great. Something's gotta give - either there is a move to much more natgas use and oil suffers/drops or natgas production drops pushing it up.
Yes, there is no easy way to sub natgas for oil (in the USA -- other countries have larger and growing natgas transportation fleets), but with the spread persisting non-easy ways should be getting more momentum. :)
Have you read the 2012Q1 update? Why on earth would he want to slow down a 38% increase in production over 2011Q4? And, to top it off, that's when he had to slow down the NG production because of low gas prices.
This market doesn't seem to understand production, it's fixated on only the debt that's being incurred to fund expansion. How else does he grow the company other than organically? Issue more stock to pay for acquisitions? Sure, then we can complain about dilution, right! jmho.
>>Note that unlike SDT/PER, natural gas will make up a higher percentage of production here than oil. Oil will make up 35%-40% of revenues ... Note that natural gas production is unhedged. ... Note that CHKR has been conservative in forecasting oil and natural gas prices through mid 2014 with natural gas topping around $5
When I heard $311 million, I expected a huge increase in current production but we get maybe a 1000 bpd? Hundreds of drilling locations added but they already had about 500 drilling locations in the Williston.
I just don't understand how this could be quickly accretive with such puny production being added.
Does this push further into the future the day when this company actually starts making money?
I am really getting tired of Gary and his empire building.
Making a profit would be the best way to fight off the shorts.