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From: gulleyjimson10/4/2011 3:23:58 PM
of 114450
 
What a bunch of wankers.... they can't take it below a buck?

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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (104748)10/4/2011 3:29:57 PM
From: sammy levy of 114450
 
In your discussion,both of you, are assuming we are dealing with an "honest" market......

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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (104741)10/4/2011 3:40:32 PM
From: Dale Baker of 114450
 
MHR just increased their bank line substantially so we know they are in compliance with everything there. Probably why they hedged half the production going forward.

Financing from the preferred shares has no covenants, of course. And their remaining cash flow is all coming from production right now.

The bear scenario for this stock is that oil drops so far that they can't keep up with debt service and drilling from cash flow and have to cut back and/or start selling assets into a weak energy markets.

And a good deal of that scenario is already priced in with MHR under $2.50.

The $300m market cap isn't much more than what the pipeline is projected to be worth next year.

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (104751)10/4/2011 3:47:00 PM
From: hoyasaxa of 114450
 
Tempted to put the mortgage money in MHR hard. < 2.50 come on. Bring it on baby. Feel similarly about NORW.

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To: gulleyjimson who wrote (104738)10/4/2011 3:50:45 PM
From: gulleyjimson of 114450
 
Come on baby.... what's 2M more shares in 10 minutes?

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To: hoyasaxa who wrote (104752)10/4/2011 4:02:23 PM
From: Dale Baker of 114450
 
With a market capable of such insane volatility, keep the mortgage money safely out of equities. Seriously, a market that swings on a headline like this is a lunatic asylum.

I am looking forward to earnings reports to make rational buy-sell decisions about individual stocks.

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From: CusterInvestor10/4/2011 4:08:01 PM
of 114450
 
MHR question--
offhand does anyone have an estimate what % of MHR production is via fraccing vs conventional wells?

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To: CusterInvestor who wrote (104755)10/4/2011 4:26:33 PM
From: Dale Baker of 114450
 
I'm pretty sure they are almost 100% unconventional, by design. They made that point in several presentations.

But they are not in any states talking about restricting fracking at all. That is no accident.

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (104756)10/4/2011 5:07:10 PM
From: Evan F of 114450
 
Here in Ohio we are seeing lots of protest activity on fracking. I would guess the same happens in near any of the shale plays. Just Google "Ohio +fracking" for a list of articles from both sides of the argument. It is basically science vs. hyperbole....

It fits with our current political climate.

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (104754)10/4/2011 5:08:35 PM
From: hoyasaxa of 114450
 
Tounge in cheek, and agree. Continue to view public markets like casinos, computer driven rigged games - that can create great opportunities for the intrepid poker (or better, blitz chess) player.
<10% public securities, the rest private (great opportunity to be the bank, creating investments with senior debt, high teens coupons, equity kickers and strong downside protections / collateral).
NORW, MHR, AXL, STO, VLY, MERKX, BRKB among public holdings, with >50% of the ~10% Norway-related. Cost basis for all other than MHR at/below/around current levels. Did add to NORW and MHR today near lows.

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