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From: John McCarthy5/19/2012 12:18:14 AM
   of 43957
 
Hedge funds dump $2 billion in gold over a week: CFTC

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hedge funds and other money managers liquidated more than $2 billion in gold futures over a week, trade data on Friday showed, before a forceful rebound in the precious metal potentially tripped up some of them.

The majority of fund managers also appear to have bet wrongly against wheat, as suggested by the data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission which showed a net "short" or bearish position against the grain which finished this week with its highest weekly gain in 16 years.

"It's still early to say if this rebound in wheat and gold will hold. But it's safe to assume that at least some hedge funds got burnt this week trying to ride the two markets all the way down," said Adam Sarhan at Sarhan Capital in New York.

Fund managers had been dumping gold since the start of May after election woes in Greece and new fears over Spain's finances put the euro zone crisis at the forefront of investor concerns. Traders initially selling the precious metal to cover losses in stocks and other markets were later joined by those betting that gold itself was overpriced and due for correction.

Trade data released by the CFTC showed the net "long" managed money in U.S. gold -- which reflects bullish bets on the shiny metal -- fell by $2.2 billion to $12.2 billion for the week ended May 15.

The drop came after hedge funds and money managers reduced to 78,619 the number of net gold contracts they held on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, versus the 92,498 contracts at the end of the week to May 8.

It was the smallest net long position for funds in gold since December 2008, when speculators were bailing out of all financial markets at the height of the global economic crisis.

COMEX gold's benchmark contract, June, fell around $82 an ounce, or 5 percent, between May 8 and 15, settling at a four-month low of around $1,557.

After falling for another session, it suddenly snapped back the last two days of this week, surging to nearly $1,598 before closing above $1,591 on Friday.

It was the sharpest two-day rally for gold since October, a rebound believed to have caught a number of funds that had been on the short end of the market.

"It's all a question of when you exited your shorts in gold this week, or whether you did at all. If you had gone short since the May 1 high of $1,672, yes, you'd have made quite a lot of money. Those who went short at $1,550 and stayed short, would have certainly lost," Sarhan said.

In the case of wheat, the managed money fell by $117 million to a net short of around $1.5 billion for the week to May 15.

U.S. wheat futures added about 16 percent to prices this week -- the largest weekly gain since 1996 -- as hot and dry weather kept fears simmering about crop losses in the U.S. Plains and in Russia.

CFTC data also showed the overall managed money in U.S. commodities falling for a second week in a row to its lowest level in nearly 5 months.

Net longs held by hedge funds and other money managers across 24 U.S. futures markets fell by nearly $8 billion, to settle at around $62 billion for the week to May 15. The last time net longs for managed money were at those levels was in the week to December 27.

(Editing by Bob Burgdorfer)

posted by TobagoJack
siliconinvestor.com

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From: John McCarthy5/19/2012 10:05:28 AM
   of 43957
 
In today's Barrons Gold is mentioned in 3 different sections. For the most all of it positive.

Fred Hickey -

Buy GG - AUY - AEM - NEM - ABX.

Miners the cheapest in last 12 years.

Says "nobody wants to own them"

==================================

Ira Sohn Investment

Paulson - AngloGold Ashanti/AU

"lowest valuation in 10 years"

==================================

Mining the Gold Miners
Robin Blumenthal

NEM - shares could rise 50%.

Morgan Stanley - "factors still in place" (for rise)

SPDR Gold Trust
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Barbra Marcin favors NEM over ETF'S.

Jim Rodgers - gold could still tank. (my words)
Daniel Gschwend - NEM's capital allocation not perfect.
Marcin - NEM will pump up production in 1 to 2 years.

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (35532)5/19/2012 10:17:12 AM
From: gold$10k   of 43957
 
I agree... and with your previous post as well. In "normal" times I would call this an intermediate bottom, but the 2008 pattern I posted about is still an alternate possibility and I have no idea what the odds are, but if GDX's pattern over the past year and a half is a H&S, then its target is 32... just as the 2008 H&S had a target of 27.

Message 28147819

I also still believe that "a retest of gold $1523 following an anticipated multi-week bounce from that level would give a clear indication whether or not this is 2008 redux."

FWIW, SPX has met my posted downside target plus a bit and is now almost as oversold as PMs were Tuesday/Wednesday.

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To: gold$10k who wrote (35546)5/19/2012 10:34:42 AM
From: shakes   of 43957
 
Ben Davies has a new posting @KWN entitled "The Gold & Silver Liquidation Is Over".

kingworldnews.com 

I appreciate his dispassionate analysis, often influenced by his weighing of Euro/English viewpoint.

regards,
Shakes

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From: Wade5/19/2012 12:19:26 PM
2 Recommendations   of 43957
 
Morgan's trading losses rip off public because of ZIRP, Rickards says


Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2012-05-18 14:36. Section: Daily Dispatches
10:35a ET Friday, May 18, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed yesterday by CNBC, geopolitical analyst James G. Rickards said JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon should resign as "a point of honor" over the firm's huge recent trading losses in London. Rickards argues that the losses essentially rip off the public insofar as Morgan is a beneficiary of the monstrous transfer of wealth from savers to banks that has been implemented under the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy. Rickards' interview is posted at the CNBC video archive here:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000090869&play=1

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

gata.org 





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To: gold$10k who wrote (35546)5/19/2012 1:52:10 PM
From: gold$10k3 Recommendations   of 43957
 
Since SPX influences whether this is 2008 redux, here is the big picture...


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To: Wade who wrote (35548)5/19/2012 2:02:04 PM
From: Wade   of 43957
 
"An initial report on the bank's results for the first quarter, made April 13, disclosed the $67 million figure, the reading under the new risk model. It did not say that there had been a change in models. On May 10, as it explained the losses, the bank showed the $129 million risk reading from the old model. On a call with analysts that day, Dimon said the bank had tried the new model, and then reverted to the old one, which it had used for several years.

"There are constant changes and updates to models -- always trying to get them better than they were before," Dimon said in the May 10 conference call. "That is an ongoing procedure."

That explanation, "does not pass the smell test," said Mike Mayo, analyst at investment firm CLSA. "It is a red flag for them to change the model," said Mayo, author of "Exile on Wall Street," about the inner workings of big banks."


news.yahoo.com 


That is reeeeally bad!!

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To: shakes who wrote (35547)5/19/2012 2:15:05 PM
From: gold$10k1 Recommendation   of 43957
 
Yes, and here is one by John Hathaway...

safehaven.com 

in which everything he says makes total sense to me and I'm not saying that he is wrong, but around Aug 13, 2008 the technicals and sentiment were very much the same as they are right now, so I am not ready to assume that we are home free.

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain

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To: shakes who wrote (35547)5/19/2012 3:24:49 PM
From: gold$10k   of 43957
 
... and here's a guy asking much the same questions that I am, although if there's more downside to come then I would think that this is like August 2008 rather than September.

safehaven.com 

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To: gold$10k who wrote (35551)5/19/2012 3:45:04 PM
From: F.W.Inglis1 Recommendation   of 43957
 
OR ???



Closer to oct-nov-08 ???

-
Sentiment: Possible.

.

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