Gold/Mining/EnergyBlue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG

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To: TheSlowLane who wrote (34716)4/11/2012 9:16:27 PM
From: rubbersoul
   of 48090
It hit 13.99.(g) CKG is 28% of my PF and has saved my a$$.

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To: Wade who wrote (34718)4/11/2012 9:36:18 PM
From: John McCarthy
1 Recommendation   of 48090
WOW ..... damn the torpedos ..... and full QE3++ ahead .....

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To: John McCarthy who wrote (34722)4/11/2012 9:56:01 PM
From: John McCarthy
1 Recommendation   of 48090
Wade .... it came to me in a flash .....

She said that one economic model used by the Fed suggested that interest rates should be held near zero until late 2015

The problem is the Fed is beating around the bush ...... and is aiming at the wrong target ..... namely
those stupid, miscreant savers ......

If it wants (a) Consumer Spending to increase and (b) thereby increase employment .....

here's the ticket ........

(a) The Fed calls up Visa, Mastercard, and

(b) Advises them that they are NOT allowed to accept their normal minimum payment from card users
and to alter the plan such that

(1) If the user only pays 25% of the minimum payment they earn cash back .....

(2) and their interest charges on the entire balance are -0- for that month

(3) otoh - if the user is some kind of communist or socialist or (worst yet) liberal and insists
on making his minimum payment ..... he is dinged an additinal handling fee charge = to 10% of
his entire balance ......

In all honesty - I don't have the exact specs all worked out yet ..... but you gotta admit
this would be a big boot up the ass of jump starting a new round of consumer spending

(4) finally, while this really does NOT kill the "saver problem" (those idiots) who just keep putting
their pennies in their socks .... it does set up the potential to "back door" them when the
credit card companies go belly up ... and need to be bailed out ...

Gotta go .... and find Ben's address .... boy .... does he owe ME.

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To: rubbersoul who wrote (34720)4/12/2012 1:27:19 AM
From: Wade
   of 48090
Who says it is easy to make money from gold? LOL

Lots of people lost money while POG kept on rising and lost even more when it was dropping.

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To: rubbersoul who wrote (34721)4/12/2012 1:29:34 AM
From: Wade
   of 48090
Nice position. <G>

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To: John McCarthy who wrote (34722)4/12/2012 1:31:24 AM
From: Wade
   of 48090
They know that they have to keep balanced views while keeping commodity bulls under control. Some are dovish and some are hawkish to cover their own a$$e$.

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To: rubbersoul who wrote (34721)4/12/2012 5:35:40 AM
From: TheSlowLane
   of 48090
LOL...from laughing laughing stockholders. I like this part better. ;^)

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From: John McCarthy4/12/2012 6:59:38 AM
   of 48090
S.Africa's gold output down 11.5 pct y/y in Feb

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's gold output fell by 11.5 percent in volume terms in February while total mineral production was down 14.5 percent compared with the same month last year, data showed on Thursday.

Production of non-gold minerals was down 14.8 percent, Statistics South Africa said.

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From: John McCarthy4/12/2012 7:02:10 AM
   of 48090
Gold could return to last year’s record highs: GFMS

Peter Koven Apr 11, 2012 – 4:36 PM ET

Global gold production continues to rise, bringing new supply into the market. But as long as investor demand for the yellow metal remains sky-high, it may not matter.

Gold consultancy GFMS launched its 2012 gold survey on Wednesday, and it took a bullish stance on prices despite a recent correction and a couple of worrying trends in the market.

One of them is that supply keeps going up. The survey showed that mine production hit a record high in 2011, rising 3% year-over-year to 2,818 tonnes (or almost 100 million ounces). It is the second straight year that production reached a new high, defying the “peak gold” theory that some commentators have thrown about.

Neil Meader, research director at Thomson Reuters-owned GFMS, said the trend of rising production should continue in the short and medium terms.

“There are a significant number of projects to come onstream, and others to ramp up to full capacity. Unless something very unusual happens to the gold price that would shut down the more marginal or mature operations, I think we are looking at a couple more years of steady gains,” he said in an interview after a presentation in Toronto.

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From: John McCarthy4/12/2012 7:21:49 AM
   of 48090
Surging central bank gold demand adds new dimension to bull market Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Apr 11, 2012 - 12:16 AM By: Michael_J_Kosares

Up until now, gold's secular bull market has been driven by a combination of private and institutional investor demand. Though those two components in the demand picture remain well-defined, it is the arrival of deep-pocket central banks in emerging countries like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, Mexico, Brazil, as well as players yet to be named, that have added a whole new dimension to gold's secular bull market.

Investor demand tends to ebb and flow based on changing views about the economy, financial markets, and the price itself, i.e. whether gold is perceived to be over-bought or over-sold. As a result, investor demand is generally viewed as an inconsistent aspect of the supply-demand tables. Central bank demand is more rooted in longer-term policies having to do with the value and safety of national reserves, and these policies tend to play out over the course of years or even decades. As a result, changes in the way gold is viewed by central banks are likely to have a significant, even profound, long-term effect on the market -- in fact, the consistent nature of central bank demand can be viewed as putting a floor under the price. (In late 2011, for example, when the price dropped from all-time highs in the $1900 per ounce range, the Chinese central bank reportedly purchased a significant amount of physical metal.) That makes 2011 -- when central banks for the first time in decades became net buyers of gold bullion -- an important watershed year for the gold market.

China remains the centerpeice in the contemporary gold market. As both the world's leading producer and consumer of gold, it plays an important role on both sides of the supply-demand equation. It should go without saying that gold owners would be well-served to understand how China views gold. Obviously a favorable "official" attitude toward gold from its top consumer and producer would play a hugely supportive role in the years to come; and a dismissive, or negative attitude would act to its detriment. China's central bank and federal government see gold as a hedge against its holdings of U.S. dollars and other currencies subject to debasement. Any number of individuals, ranging from members of its academia to government policy makers and important functionaries in the central bank itself, have warned against the instability of currency reserves and the importance of establishing a reliable hedge. In fact, the Peoples Bank of China advocates a 4000 tonne gold reserve. It now holds about 1200 tonnes. Such thinking affects the supply side in that China is likely to continue "domesticating" its gold production as part of its national reserves. On the demand side, it makes China a ready buyer of any sizable tranches of gold that become available on the market -- no matter the source. In fact, recent reports have surfaced that China has launched a program of buying gold directly from mining companies around the world as a means to building its reserves. The London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports one source, predicting that China will acquire "several thousand tonnes of gold over the next five years to match the US stash of 8,000 and the Euro Zone's 11,000."

If you would like to broaden your view of gold market, we invite you to sign-up for our regular newsletter and receive quality commentary like what you are now reading. It's free of charge and comes by e-mail. You can opt out at any time.

The fact that this pro-gold attitude has become ingrained in the "monetary thinking" of China's economic policy makers will figure largely in supply-demand tables in the years to come and will act as a catalyst for similar thinking in other similarly positioned nation-states. Russia, for example, the fifth-leading producing country follows a similar policy; and recently South Africa, the fourth-largest gold producing country, took steps to move away from the dollar and toward China's renminbi, in international currency transactions. How long before it sees fit to follow a gold policy similar to the one in place in China? The three countries together account for 28% of the world's annual gold production.

Central banks becoming net buyers of gold top story for 2011

Now, at the end of the first quarter of 2012, we can look back at the events of 2011 with a little perspective. If I were to rank the most important gold market events of 2011, the profound shift of central banks from net sellers to net buyers would sit comfortably in the number one slot. Number two would be the surge in purchases of coins and bars by private investors. Not only are the shifts in sentiment themselves profound, the tonnage involved is striking. Ten years ago, in 2002, central banks sold 545 tonnes in the aggregate. In 2005, net sales reached a peak of 662 tonnes. Five years later, in 2010 those sales had dwindled to 77 tonnes, and in 2011, the central banks became net buyers of 440 tonnes -- a shift of roughly 1000 tonnes from 2002 to 2011. In other words, not only did central banks move in the direction of gold ownership in 2011, they did so with gusto. Physical availability, more so than price considerations, appears to be the greatest restraint to further official sector acquisitions, as more and more dollars pile up in the reserves of export-driven economies.

As for the private ownership of gold bars and coins, the growth is equally striking. In 2002, investors globally purchased 373 tonnes in the form of coins and bullion. In 2005, after the first gold exchange traded funds were introduced, total combined investment demand for coins, bullion and exchanged traded funds reached 620 tonnes. From there, gold ownership has been in a steady pull upward, hitting 1196 tonnes in 2008 and 1641 tonnes in 2011. It is interesting to note that exchange traded fund demand turned sharply lower from 2009-2011, while the coin and bullion component turned sharply higher, as a number of hedge fund owners - including John Paulson - opted for outright ownership, probably in the form of allocated storage, over the ETFs.

The combination of strong official sector demand and global investment demand could move gold into the next phase of its long-term bull market, and carry prices to new levels beyond the all-time high of $1895 per ounce. The world of money and finance underwent severe changes in the aftermath of the 2008 financial meltdown, and most significant among them is the way gold is viewed as a long-term store of value by private investors, fund managers, sovereign funds and central banks alike.

Gold's bull market surge came during disinflationary times

We should keep in mind that gold's price surge prior to and just after the crisis came when the economy was experiencing disinflationary circumstances -- something that came as a surprise to many analysts. History tells us that there is no gold bull market like one driven by runaway inflation. Now with key central banks in the industrialized world (Europe, the United States, Japan and United Kingdom) moving to quantitative easing monetary policies -- i.e., running the printing presses -- many feel that the next stage in gold's price evolution could occur under inflationary circumstances. If so, it could make the next few years an interesting time for gold owners. As the monetarist school teaches, monetary inflation generally takes a period of three to five years to translate to price inflation. In the United States, the first wave of quantitative easing began in 2009 and ended in mid-2011. Another round, as you are about to read, could be in the offing. (Please see "Quantitative easing and gold" below.)

In the short run, any number of intervening factors can govern the price of gold -- from the activities of rogue traders, bullion banks and central banks, to software-based systems generating thousands of trades in the blink of an eye. In the long run, though, it is the ebb and flow of physical metal -- the activity of its buyers and sellers-- that truly govern the price. The motivation of the real buyer of the physical metal -- as well as the true motivation of its real sellers -- lies at the heart of the future price of gold, and it is here that the true student of the golden metal will look for guidance. Though market magicians can move the market in one direction or the other by manipulating paper instruments, they cannot govern the dynamics of bull or bear markets over the long run. That is why the patient owner of the physical metal itself over all these years has been the most direct beneficiary of this bull market, and it is why he or she is likely to remain the chief beneficiary in the years to come.

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By Michael J. Kosares
Michael J. Kosares , founder and president
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Denver

Michael Kosares has over 30 years experience in the gold business, and is the author of The ABCs of Gold Investing: How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold, and numerous magazine and internet articles and essays. He is frequently interviewed in the financial press and is well-known for his on-going commentary on the gold market and its economic, political and financial underpinnings.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in commentary e do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

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