Strategies & Market Trends | Tech Stock Options


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To: Eddie D. Gilbert who wrote (31149)12/13/1997 3:10:00 PM
From: donald sew   of 58727
 
Eddie,

Per my INDEX UPDATE the HiTech sell-off will end this week, and some type of reversal/flatness should start this week, and could be as soon
as Monday. Once the reversal starts/ sell-off stops, just don't expect the HiTechs to set any new highs for awhile.

In fact after this up cycle there are technical signs that we are either going to range trade or correct as an overall market.

I would not be too bullish right now but be very cautious and nimble.

If there are short-term calls involved, say JAN's, would highly suggest that on the next 1-2 up cycles , one takes what one can get rather than hope for a total recovery. Obviously that would depend on where one originally got in.

I do not want to totally sound like doom and gloom, since on the brighter side certain Non HiTech stocks are still setting new highs such as the UTY, XAL, PNX, etc and those are signals that the overall market could continue upwards. Tie those with the negative signals coming from the HiTech area and I am inclined to stay with the prediction of range trading.

Well, things do look good per the technicals for this coming week overall(SHORT-TERM, I REPEAT SHORT-TERM).

Happy trading

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To: donald sew who wrote (31157)12/13/1997 8:07:00 PM
From: donald sew   of 58727
 
INDEX UPDATE
--------------------

Untill I went thru various threads did not realize how bearish many have become. From a subjective viewpoint, when there's the feeling of doom and gloom is when to buy. I am not suggesting that everything is fine, but the technicals are not indicating the strong bearish tone that I am noticing.

Well, not that I am a contrarian, since I just follow my technicals but I will stick to what they are saying and that for the SHORT-TERM (1-5 DAYS), we should have a reversal sometime this coming week and it could start as early as Monday.

Caution and nimbleness are required for the near future.

I am currently in the XOI's and OSX, and I am contemplating buying the IIX, since per my technicals the IIX is the strongest of the HiTech indexes and my CLASS 1 BUYS. Yes, I do realise that CSCO is getting killed now, but that is only one component of the index although strong one.

Any new long positions will be only for the quick pop and thats all. I will not be looking for the extended runs at this time, but keep it to my normal 5% pop on my CLASS 1 BUYS(stronger indexes).

Happy trading.

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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (31135)12/14/1997 3:20:00 AM
From: Chris   of 58727
 
lisa -- charts

here are some charts using the trix i emailed you about:

geocities.com 

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To: Tom Trader who wrote (31070)12/14/1997 4:16:00 AM
From: scotty   of 58727
 
Buy puts on UAL,AMR,Delta.

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To: scotty who wrote (31160)12/14/1997 12:34:00 PM
From: Tom Trader   of 58727
 
Well thread, things must be in a REALLY bad way for the longs

Just 11 postings all day on this thread yesterday -- with Don and I contributing about half of them

Just 20 postings on the Ideas thread all day

Now there was a time--not so long ago-- when this many postings occurred in one hour--and in the mean time the Kahuna and Ask Mohan thread each number about 100 posts yesterday and the latter had almost 250 posts on Friday.

SI sentiment of bulls and bears has reached a near all-time low as far as bulls are concerned.

Market is oversold

Methinks that a tradeable bottom is close at hand:)

>>Buy puts on UAL,AMR,Delta.

Scotty, would you care to elaborate??

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To: Tom Trader who wrote (31161)12/14/1997 1:10:00 PM
From: donald sew   of 58727
 
Tom,

>>> SI sentiment of bulls and bears have reached a near all-time low as far as bulls are concerned <<<

As I mentioned in my earlier post, I was surprised to see how bearish everyone has turned. I had also suggested to proceed with caution on any long positions and not to expect the old highs anytime soon for the HiTechs. I think I was a bit behind not realizing how many have really turned bearish.

I guess I am in the contrarian position again, not because I am a contrarian but I am just following my technicals. The technicals are strongly, repeat STRONGLY, indicating a reversal this week, and it could happen as soon as Monday. I will not use the word "absolutely"(will leave others to use that word), but will state that the probability is very, very high for a reversal, for the early part of this week, and yes it could be as soon as Monday.

Since my SHORT-TERM analysis is usually only accurate for 1-5 day periods, I will not make a strong prediction on the strength of this reversal. I will indicated that as of this point my technicals are leaning towards range trading, rather than another large correction in the near future.

Tom, shoot, I feel lonely now, but am glad to hear that you have at least an inkling for a forthcoming reversal soon. If I go down with this prediction I prefer not to be by myself.. (ROFL).

Right now my largest position is in the XOI(OILS), followed by the OSX(OIL DRILLERS). As for Monday, if the market does not open up, I am now thinking of increasing my position in the OIL DRILLERS and the IIX(INTERNET INDEX).

All 3 of these indexes are CLASS 1 BUYS, and are the strongest of my CLASS 1 BUYS. This is not to say that they are the strongest indexes, which they are not, but are the strongest of my CLASS 1's

Again, I do not expect the OILS to move too fast, but still should be a fair gainer. The OSX and IIX should be the faster movers.

Tom, wonder what would happen to me if I went to the Kahuna thread?<<ggggg>>

Happy trading

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To: donald sew who wrote (31162)12/14/1997 1:50:00 PM
From: j g cordes   of 58727
 
Tom and Don, Don't want you to feel all alone in your nadir of sentiment contrarian toast. Five days in a row of selling is pushing the odds envelope but only at 31:1. If Monday is down then we go to a more tradeable 63:1.

The short term occilators are looking attractive (sounds like a strip joint), while the long term are neutral to declining through supports. If I may, let me put in some fundamental strategic thinking on where we are in the woods and how to trade it this week. There are:

A. end of year tax strategies are in play, dumping and pumping
B. cash inflows continue strong into funds
C. bonds are supportive of not having disaster days (-300)
D. we're short term oversold
.... 1. based on news
.... 2. based on declining profit expectations
E. there are few up momentum sectors
F. there are many technical oversold sectors including Don's indexs

Conclusion:

Seems to me its a wonderful environment for accelerated volatility with a growing bias (but not fundamental support for) the upside.
This is a day trading market, especially as its the end of year expiration cycle, the last week with plenty of energy building...

Psychological preparation is important, don't pine over lost intraday opportunities... in other words, if you insist on trading, while calling in your long or short position you may as well give a selling price at the same time, look for a clean percentage gain, something like 10-20% (unless you're watching realtime and can pull the trigger quickly) on OEX trades when tick or trin indicates an extreme.
Fast market fill strategies are best IMO.

Jim

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To: Tom Trader who wrote (31161)12/14/1997 2:06:00 PM
From: scotty   of 58727
 
Tom,my forte is buying puts on a toppy market.Last Friday looks like reversal day for the airlines.I expect(Hope) big player to announce a slowdown in travel from troubled economies.Airlines are due for correction,could be fast and furious. regards

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To: Tom Trader who wrote (31161)12/14/1997 3:06:00 PM
From: HoodBuilder   of 58727
 
Tom, just remember, O.J. is the ultimate contrarian test.

WHAT SAY YOU O.J.

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To: HoodBuilder who wrote (31165)12/14/1997 4:06:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson   of 58727
 
Hi Mike

I am a raging BEAR!!!!!! yes the markets will rally, but I will play the short side for now...In fact Mikey if we both were on THAT side from Aug till now we'd be a LOT richer<g>...

As for your AMAT play...That's a synthetic short position...I would not play that right now...because I don't want to own AMAT at any price at the moment...I'd be short all the techs, and any that are still out there that haven't been beaten up yet...

They'll get a lot worse before they get better....I don't like this makret one bit...I'll play in selling calls and buying puts, and not BUYING 1 stock for the long haul, NOT YET!!! let's wait till after eps in Jan, and see what the hells going on here...I don't like what I feel...contrarian or not!!!

I do not see a bottom, no way...In fact I'm begining to feel other companys besides techs will start to feel the effects of Asia.. Esp. when Japan and all the other countries decide to pull in their horns...And just STOP buying US goods!!!! think it can't happen????, i would think again...

I just posted Judy on the Ideas thread some thoughts...I still haven't formulated a game plan as yet...But i am NOT buying a damn thing right now and won't till i have some very strong reasons...

This market looks very bad to me...yeah we'll have our rallies, becuase of this and that...but I'll play the other side for now...maybe i'll be worng, and yeah maybe I won't...we'll see....

The freakin' Eagles lost again, sheesh!!! the are D-E-A-D!!!! :[...

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