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 Strategies & Market Trends | The Millennium Crash

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (5622)9/12/2003 3:57:51 PM
From: Eva   of 5635
 
Arik

fascinating description, seems like a bungy jump, each time the recoil is less high, lesser high, till ,stretched out!

Thanks
Eva

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (5622)9/13/2003 9:46:21 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill   of 5635
 
Arik, I agree the bubble has not popped.

It burped out a bit of gas, but is alive & well.

Sharp

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (5622)9/29/2003 4:14:27 PM
From: Tim Lamb   of 5635
 
Hi Arik:

Follow Les's link.

Message 19352736

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To: Tim Lamb who wrote (5625)9/30/2003 12:15:06 PM
From: Arik T.G.   of 5635
 
Thanks, Tim, for the article.
I totally agree with the LT assessment, and the very ST
>>Early next week, look for a 2-3 day counter-trend rally reversal to the upside,>>
Exactly the same as
Message 19352445
>>Looks like a 3 days bounce started here. This bounce should be SOLD if up nicely mid day tomorrow or Wednesday morning.>>

But I disagree with some of the IT projections implied in the article.
This drop could be the continuation of the secular bear, but IMO more likely it's only a pause in, the B of, the bear market rally, and my main scenario is that we do retrace quite sharply over 50% of the entire rally from the 10/02 low, but another leg up is due from there and the secular bear will take hold again and drive the markets to new lows only next year.

ATG

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (5626)9/30/2003 12:44:19 PM
From: Tim Lamb   of 5635
 
Hi Arik:

My opinion (not on TA) is with all the liquidity in the market from tax cuts, government spending and the FED is providing plenty of fuel to propel this cycical bull into next year (of course the imbalances this is creating will need to be paid for too).

For now I'd say we rally to the elections (after this correction) but actually its when the market anticipates the coming consumer recession (so it can be earlier or later than next Nov but thats my target for now).

Then we start are way to new lows in the secular bear.

As for this correction I think we can make it back to 1640 area on naz and 900 on the snp.

Time will tell.

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To: Tim Lamb who wrote (5627)9/30/2003 1:35:20 PM
From: Arik T.G.   of 5635
 
Next November is a bit too late.
This correction should be sharp - late Dec \ early Jan tops, but more likely two months till mid November, then six months for the next bear rally leg to late spring.
I say April to June 1070 S&P top from mid Nov - early Jan 880-905 low

We're not that far apart

ATG

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (5628)9/30/2003 2:34:17 PM
From: Tim Lamb   of 5635
 
Both are road maps. We'll have to see where we are and how we get there between now and then. The seasonality can put a top in by June and should not be over looked (but on the flip side i'm giving this administration credit to keep the markets up till after the elections).

I agree with your 1070 (with an outside chance @ 1270).

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To: Tim Lamb who wrote (5629)10/2/2003 4:36:01 AM
From: Arik T.G.   of 5635
 
We'll also have to watch how fast the Dollar collapses.
I was surprised last week with the rate of decline (not at all with the direction) and so far not even a dead cat bounce.

ATG

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (5630)1/31/2005 1:58:22 PM
From: Arik T.G.   of 5635
 
The NYSE composite index made a new all time high on 12/31/2004 at 7273.18 and closed down a little for that day.
It surmounted the 7202.72 high it made September 2000.

The Russell 2000 had already passed its 3/2000 high in mid November. It also made a new all times high on 12/31 and closed down a little for that day, too.

So, two wide market indices went to alltime high on the low volume holiday period, and broke down on big volume as the new year started.

For the NYSE composite it's even worse. The only period of time it traded above the 2000 high was between 12/23 and 1/3 (the first trading day of the year). On the first trading day of 2005 it already went below the y2k high, closed below it and never faced it again .
So the ONLY period of time the NYSE composite spent above its 2000 high was on the lowest volume period of the year. When volume went back to normal (and above) this index was back below the previous high.
In my book that's a false break, a failure of the up trend.

Looking at a semi log scale monthly chart, the trend that had just failed originated in the '70s, the 1974 low to be exact.
On the same chart it is quite evident that the 2000 high itself was a false break above a 7068 resistance that held from July 1999 till May 2001.

Today the index high at 7088 is inches away from the 7102 resistance it had put lately. Let's see if it holds.


ATG

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (5631)2/1/2005 11:31:04 AM
From: Arik T.G.   of 5635
 
Warning sign:
Apartment REITs are going down

Look at EQR ASN and AVB, the pillars of apartment REITs.
They lost in one month more then they gained in the previous two months, and over half the gain of the entire leg up from the April 2004 low.

The reason REITs are going down is expectations that the housing market will weaken.
Wether it's because expectations are for a LT yield to rise, or because a general weakness in purchasing is expected, I don't care. The thing is the housing market was the main engine in getting out of the 2001 recession, and other sectors have not taken the reigns since.
If the main engine falters, there will be nothing else to keep the economy from spiraling down.
And indeed the recent data show that although housing starts datum remains very close to its high, the new home sales number out yesterday was a bad surprise and pulled the 8 month MA lower. It would be very difficult now to pull that MA back up without some very strong numbers, in the neighborhood of the failed expectations from the recent datum.

ATG

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