Technology Stocks | Excite@Home (ATHM)


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To: E. Davies who wrote (24733)8/17/2000 1:25:11 AM
From: gpowell   of 29968
 
On the other hand I feel that if it is true that self-install is not feasable I'd say @home will always rank in the world of ISP's not far above where Excite ranks in the world of portals. A well known name- but not the name.


Now you are comparing apples and oranges. We're talking BB here not dial up. If ATHM's MSO partners can't trust self install do you think anyone else can? DSL? Maybe, after the line is tested.

Does anyone else remember how they said there would be an exponential ramp in subscriber rate in early 2000? Then it was mid 2000. Now it's late 2000. Some may even remember back to the days when they thought they'd be able to self install right from the start.

Yes. How about "profitablity by Q4", then "no, not profitablity, but growth", then "well, missed on growth but with the help of self installs...". What's next "no not chello, but ..."

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To: gpowell who wrote (24738)8/17/2000 9:18:37 AM
From: E. Davies   of 29968
 
Do you think AOL's growth looks exponential?

Your chart show clearly that it is growing at a faster than linear rate today and that the rate of growth has always been increasing. That's close enough to exponential for me.

Of course it has got to flatten out someday soon- probably when @home starts eating into their subscriber base.

You can match any curve with a combination of straight lines.

Eric

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To: E. Davies who wrote (24740)8/17/2000 9:26:24 AM
From: Rob C.   of 29968
 
Eric,

Are we do for a spike to 17 today or tomorrow? Option's expire this week and it always increases volatility. I don't think there is any shot at At Home closing above 15, there are 20,195 August 15 Puts outstanding and 6,220 August 15 calls, everyone holding those option loses if ATHM closes at 15, which means ATHM closes at 15 tomorrow, it is almost lock.

Have a great day,

Rob

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To: Rob C. who wrote (24741)8/17/2000 11:26:23 AM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein   of 29968
 
Cablevision suit over....
siliconinvestor.com

DocStone

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To: E. Davies who wrote (24737)8/17/2000 1:24:52 PM
From: David Nelson   of 29968
 
You may already be aware of this but the "self install" promotion has been promoted for a number of months by Cox@HOME here in San Diego. When I moved, recently, I took advantage of their offer.

However, I'm not so sure the average Joe wants to take their box apart to install an ethernet card... and their software installation is not bullet-proof either.

There is also a matter of installing a network and getting additional IPs if you want to hook up additional computers in the household. There is limited to no assistance available from @HOME, either on their site or by phone, for this and you are told that @HOME does not support home network installation except to provide the additional IPs.

AOL's AOL Plus service offers additional capabilities and features, but they have the same problems with installation when a customer switches to broadband.

Modems come installed on ALL new computers today, but increasingly, this will be less important, even for fax capability.

AOL is losing market share slowly to other broadband services and the free dial-up services offered by Yahoo, Excite, Netscape (owned by AOL) and a host of others.

AOL is ubiquitous today but the future was never less clear for AOL, and content is the key to their continued success.

@Home has lost it's luster for most investors for a host of reasons, not the least of which is the perception that @Home is being managed by a committee that can't agree upon much of anything, and T, a minority shareholder with majority voting rights, appears to jerk the co and shareholders around with no clear perceived direction.

Management has to come back to the investment community with a CLEAR message about the company's direction does and how it plans to get from here to there.

For me and other shrewd investors, this creates a buying opportunity--the opportunity to purchase a co "on the cheap" which has a great franchise long into the future. The market will recognize @Home's true value, soon. And I'll get paid off many fold.

As always, Back-up the Truck!

--Dave

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To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (24742)8/17/2000 1:30:35 PM
From: Larry S.   of 29968
 
Do you think the settlement of the Cablevision suit is behind today's move? It does clear the air about the future of ATHM. larry

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To: E. Davies who wrote (24737)8/17/2000 1:45:41 PM
From: Orcastraiter   of 29968
 
Here's a link to a post on the Motley Fool regarding Cablevision's self installs:

boards.fool.com 

excerpt:

Approximately 95% of all buyers are electing to self-install the modem and more than 80% of those customers have been able to install the cable modem without requiring a truck-roll.

Orca

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To: KailuaBoy who wrote (24716)8/17/2000 2:11:49 PM
From: David Nelson   of 29968
 
The cable installers routinely pull everything out and replace it with new "stuff".

You are wrong. They don't replace wiring unless it is absolutely necessary. I have first hand experience in this matter, as well as statements from installers that indicate that existing wiring is used in all cases, unless it is determined that replacing the wiring is the only way they can get the gain necessary for an adequate installation.

I have sat through 2 separate cable installs. They come in and test the line for gain. If they have an adequate signal (it doesn't have to be great), they install filters on the TV lines to stop up channel noise from tvs, install the modem, ethernet card, software, and test the system... Done!

The last installer told me that the average for an install is less than 1 1/2 hours and that they are allotted 2 hours per install and do 4 or more per day. If there are any further problems, field techs handle the rest.

In the case of one of the installs I witnessed, problems existed in the installation and field service people were sent out on 5 separate occasions. Each time, the problem was diagnosed as user error. On the 5th visit from service people, the wiring was discovered to have caused the problems and was replaced in half of the house at great expense to the cable co, COX.

The technician assured me that this is the exception rather than the rule and that installers continue to install 4 or more systems per day. It's clear to me that they put out brush fires after the fact and focus on new installations at a steady rate of 4 per day, per installer.

I neglected to mention that COX cable gave away 2 months of free service for the difficulties with the bad wiring incident.

As always, Back-up the truck.

--Dave

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To: Larry S. who wrote (24744)8/17/2000 2:16:10 PM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein   of 29968
 
Hard to say whether the lawsuit settlement has anything to do with today's rise. The general markets are up. Or it could just be normal variation.

I have no idea.

DocStone

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To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (24747)8/17/2000 2:42:04 PM
From: Larry S.   of 29968
 
just wondered if it removed some uncertainty on the stock - opened the way for some kind of deal between the players. larry

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