Strategies & Market Trends | Telebras (TBH) & Brazil


Previous 10 | Next 10 
To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7355)9/2/1998 10:10:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy   of 22640
 
Brazil shrs seen opening firm but jumpy throughout

Reuters, Wednesday, September 02, 1998 at 09:34

SAO PAULO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian stocks are poised
to open firmer on Wednesday as a calmer external outlook and
improving world markets buoy optimism in local bourses, but
traders may still be jumpy, depending on New York's
performance.
The 58-share Bovespa index (INDEX:$BVSP.X), which posted a handsome
6.87-percent gain on Tuesday to close at 6,917 points, is seen
holding on to its highs at least at the start, brokers said.
"It will open firmer, but prices will still depend heavily
on Wall Street throughout the session," said one trader at
Banco Santander in Sao Paulo. The index was still down 32
percent so far this year by Tuesday's close.
Some brokers said Tuesday's rise was in part due to
foreigners returning to the market, snapping up some cheap
Brazilian stocks.
The market's top blue-chip issue Telebras preferred
(SAO:TELB4), which is often sought after by foreigners as well
as local investors, jumped 6.71 percent to 89.1 reais.
Brokers said news on Telebras late Tuesday that 12 new
firms spun off recently from the telephone holding company
Telebras would start trading from September 15, should help
activity in the market.
The 12 firms were created prior to Telebras' privatization
auction held on July 29.
Investors had been awaiting the units' debut on the local
bourse and New York Stock Exchange.
"Starting trade in the companies would help the market
because it prevents a concentration in Telebras, and gives
investors a wider selection of shares," said a trader at local
Indusval brokerage. Telebras currently accounts for about 50
percent of trade on the Sao Paulo bourse.
Investors are now expected to hunt down other blue-chips
such as Petrobras (SAO:PETR4), Eletrobras (SAO:ELET6), Telesp
(SAO:TLSP4) and Cemig (SAO:CMIG4), the trader said.
Bluechip activity Tuesday:
Telebras (SAO:TELB4) up 6.71 pct at 89.10 reais
Petrobras (SAO:PETR4) up 10 pct at 132 reais
Eletrobras (SAO:ELET6) up 16.61 pct at 20.99 reais
Vale do Rio Doce (SAO:VALE5) up 4.49 pct at 16.30 reais
Bovespa:
* Tuesday: up 6.87 pct at 6,917 points
* Week: up 2.5 pct
* Month: up 6.8 pct
* Year-to-date: down 32.1 pct
SELIC (open): 2.085 pct
Dollar/Real (open): 1.1775 per dollar

YESTERDAY'S STORIES 1/8 1/4SUR 3/8
*****
SPOT REAL QUOTES <BRBY>
BOVESPA STOCK INDEX (INDEX:$BVSP.X)
ELECTRICAL ENERGY INDEX <.IEE>
BRAZILIAN ADR PRICES <BR/ADR>
BRAZILIAN BRADY BOND PRICES <2LDO>
BRAZILIAN DOLLAR FLOW HISTORY <BRFLOW>
noriko.yamaguchi@reuters.com))

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7359)9/2/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: MGV   of 22640
 
Nothing has changed externally in the past week except US equities have become alot cheaper. The upshot from that is that a significant rally in TBR likely is not imminent the way I see it. The EM fears are temporarily suppressed but, the GOJ still does not get it. Therefore, the Yen will fall again and fears of more currency attacks will be rejuvenated. Russia still does not have a PM. There will remain a high degree of instability there until well after one is in place. Whats more, TBR has more competition now for the investment dollar than it did before Monday. Consequently, I don't think there will be a mad scramble to buy TBR (though I submit, as before, there should be).

The above is my view of market realities right now. I feel obliged to reconfirm that I am as bullish as ever on TBR.

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

To: janie kotara who wrote (7358)9/2/1998 11:04:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy   of 22640
 
Hello Janie, thanks for the welcome back. Yes, the markets have been miserable and I never thought we'd see 85 again either. As far as buying now or later, I still believe the sum of the parts will be greater than the whole but that would be based on the closing price the day before the split. Many technical folks are looking for a retest of DOW 7400 followed by another rally to confirm a bottom. I'd like to think we've seen the lows but the next week or so are probably dependent on the same old, same old...global concerns. We may also see concerns grow over a Clinton impeachment as Starr's report goes to congress...maybe next week.

Bottom line, I intend on doing something before the split but am not convinced yet. FWIW, I am hearing that a new Bear Stearns report is suggesting a potential year end sum-of-the-parts of $67 due to a Brazil risk premium, but if I understood, they feel the risk premium is too high and have revised their year end '98 target to $103 and year end '99 to $152. Will post the report if I can get my hands on it. Will be checking for info from MS-DW today also.

Regards,

sf

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7361)9/2/1998 12:48:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy   of 22640
 
With the Bovespa up 2.04% TBR is sure having a rough day down 2.47%...wonder what gives?

sf

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (6)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7362)9/2/1998 1:13:00 PM
From: md1derful   of 22640
 
SF: I agree, worrisome sell off amid the market glee..no clue..I wonder if this is a reaction to the government's propping up of the stock which apparently occurred over the past few days...we may also be setting up for a nice 2 o'clock rally...haven't had one in a while!!

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: md1derful who wrote (7363)9/2/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy   of 22640
 
Although not infallable, the 2:00 indicator suggests an upward end-of-day bias. Still think we may go back down over the next week or so, but so many folks are looking for it maybe it won't. Guess it all depends on what happens.

CNBC just pointed out that TBR is down on low volume while the Bovespa is up. Bob Pisoni said he's trying to find out what's going on and hoped to update us later.

Anyone clear on the word from Japan? After being out of town for a while the following is my understanding...someone please correct me if I'm wrong...If I understand no progress has been made, politicians are basically fighting amongst themselves, and the new PM may be outta there soon. Yen is up against the dollar primarily due to concerns of a US interest rate drop.

sf

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7362)9/2/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy   of 22640
 
Brazil's Santos port speeds coffee, cargo loading

Reuters, Wednesday, September 02, 1998 at 13:54

SAO PAULO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Shipping operations at
Brazil's key port of Santos gathered momentum on Wednesday as
exporters shook off delays caused by a series of union strikes
and work-slowdowns in August.
Officials at the Santos port authority (CODESP) said
shipping agents had trimmed their container backlog to just
2,965 containers by Wednesday from roughly 10,000 on Friday.
"Things here are definitely getting better," a CODESP
spokeswoman said. "But we will need at least five more days
like this to get things back to normal."
But worker unrest may rear its head again next week,
shipping agents warn. Customs employees, who crippled Santos
for nearly two weeks with strikes and go-slows, may again
decide to work-to-rule next week over an ongoing pay dispute.
A customs union spokesman said a meeting had been
tentatively slated for Friday to discuss future industrial
action. "It really depends on what we get accomplished this
week," the spokesman said, referring to salary negotiations
with federal authorities.
Coffee shipments, which had been severely hampered by
August's worker unrest, were also picking up speed, according
to the Commercial Association of Santos.
Renaldo Braga, the Association's administrator, said
although data was still being compiled, some 300,000 bags meant
to be shipped in August would soon be cleared out of Santos
port.
He said a total of 716,266 bags had been shipped by August
31 out of Santos, which is Latin America's busiest port and
accounts for roughly 70 percent of Brazil's coffee exports.
The Brazilian Federation of Coffee Exporters (Febec) said on
Tuesday Brazil's total August exports should reach between 1.5
and 1.7 million 60-kg bags.
Febec's figure compares with an export figure of 1.07
million bags shipped out of all of Brazil's ports by August 31,
according to the Commercial Association of Santos.
Braga said the Association had expected total exports of
1.6 million bags.

Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7362)9/2/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy   of 22640
 
Brazil To Use 60% Of Telebras Proceeds For Budget-Report

Dow Jones Newswires

BRASILIA -- Contrary to previously announced policy, the Brazilian
government has included 60% of the privatization sale proceeds of
Telecomunicacoes Brasileiras SA, known as Telebras, in its 1999 budget
proposal to finance expenses and investments, the Estado de S. Paulo
newspaper reported Wednesday.

A spokeswoman at the Budget and Planning Ministry on Wednesday
confirmed the budget proposal on the use of Telebras proceeds, but said
officials weren't immediately available for comment.

Details of the proposal, handed to Congress last Monday, show that only
40% of the Telebras proceeds will be used to pay off debt. At the same
time, government officials had said earlier that the Telebras money would
be used in its entirety to pay off debts.

Telebras was sold on July 29 for a total of 22 billion reals (BRL)
($1=BRL1.17).

The injection of the Telebras proceeds allowed the government to project
an improvement in its public accounts or 1999, forecasting a primary
surplus of BRL8.7 billion for next year in its budget proposal.

Brazil's public sector is currently running a 12-months nominal deficit equal
to 7% of GDP.

-By William Vanvolsem; (5561) 244 3095;wvanvolsem@ap.org


Briefing Book for: E.TCB | TBR

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7362)9/2/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy   of 22640
 
Copom expected to reduce interest rate to 19 per cent

Sao Paulo, 2 - The Central Bank Economic Policy Committee (Copom) will hold a
meeting late this afternoon to define the basic interest rate (TBC) to be in effect up
until October 7. The TBC is expected to fall to 19% from the current 19.75% a year,
despite the ongoing international crisis. Actually, the BC has already been charging
that rate for one-day operations with banks. TBC reductions always help improve the
public deficit. According to BC director for International Affairs, Dem¢sthenes de
Madureira Pinho Neto, the deficit declines 1% whenever interest rates fall four
percentage points. However, consumers should not be benefited by a lower TBC.
The reason is that the money cost at financial institutions, which have been more
cautious in face of the crisis, has increased. (O Estado de S. Paulo/ Jornal da Tarde/
Folha de S.Paulo/ Jornal do Brasil. Edited by Sergio Cardoso)



Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (7362)9/2/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy   of 22640
 
Cardoso releases US$15m to fight fire - rpt

Bras¡lia, 2 - After meeting with Environment minister, Gustavo Krause, and Federal
Environment Institute Ibama president, Eduardo Martins, president Fernando
Henrique Cardoso announced yesterday the release of US$15m in order to fight
against fire ravaging Brazil's midwestern region, in anticipation of the World Bank's
loan aimed at combating fire occurrences in Brazilian woods.

According to the Planalto Palace spokesman, Ambassador S‚rgio Amaral, the
conclusion is that the fire has not as yet reached Xingu National Park, one of Brazil's
best preserved Indian reserves. Ibama's president added that Indians were not
running any risks. However, he admitted he is worried with the proximity of the fire,
only 4 km far from the reserve. (By Tƒnia Monteiro)

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)
Previous 10 | Next 10 

Copyright © 1995-2013 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.