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To: BeenRetired who wrote (4367)10/4/2017 1:55:18 PM
From: zzpat
   of 5039
 
Fascinating.

In a roundabout way, the article explains why Buffet sold so much of his IBM stock. AWS did what he thought IBM would do. Six years of investments in IBM and six years of losses because AWS is better.

There are any flaws in the article, but still very interesting. WMT's e-commerce grew because it acquired companies not because it was able to do it internally. The CEO was simply incapable of putting together a team who could do the job so he bought up companies (one in particular) that did the hard work for him. I found that section to be the weakest.

There is significant data suggesting that adding more information doesn't improve performance past a certain point. HFT is a perfect example of adding more information and not getting better results. Learning when information overload isn't adding value seems to be the hard part. By the time it's found, it's already too late since the money has already been spent.

In the end, it comes down to WMT being able to use AI to its advantage. The CEO knows AI and e-commerce are the future so he gets points for learning (not knowing) the obvious. Moving a company that's around 50 years old into the future is not an easy task but he might be able to do it as long as he doesn't think he can actually do it - he needs the OneOps team to do it for him.

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 3:10:41 PM
   of 5039
 

"expert": 56% AR/VR CAGR to 2021.....................................................................

Very bit intense AR/VR.

From what I've read, these guys are using COTS stuff. To be done right bits and pixels must go way up along with FPS.

ASML.



VR headsets to drive near-term growth, but AR headsets to gain momentum by 2020, says IDC
Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES, Taipei [Monday 2 October 2017]
IDC is forecasting the combined augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) headset market to reach 13.7 million units in 2017, growing to 81.2 million units by 2021 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.1%. VR headsets will account for more than 90% of the market until 2019 while AR will account for the rest. In the final two years of forecast (2020-2021) IDC expects AR headsets to experience exponential growth as they capture a quarter of the market by the end of the forecast.

"AR headset shipments today are a fraction of where we expect them to be in the next five years, both in terms of volume and functionality," said Jitesh Ubrani, senior research analyst for IDC Mobile Device Trackers. "AR headsets are also on track to account for over US$30 billion in revenues by 2021, almost double that of VR, as most of the AR headsets will carry much higher average selling prices with earlier adopters being the commercial segment. Meanwhile, most consumers will experience AR on mobile devices, although it's only a matter of time before Apple's ARKit- and Google's ARCore-enabled apps make their way into consumer grade headsets."

While AR headsets are poised for long-term growth along with a profound impact on the way businesses and consumers compute, VR headsets will drive a near-term shift in computing. Recent price reductions across all the major platforms, plus new entrants appearing in the next month, should drive growth in the second half of 2017 and will help to offset a slow start to the year. Screenless viewers such as the Gear VR will continue to maintain a majority share throughout the forecast, although the category's share will continue to decline as lower-priced tethered head-mounted displays (HMDs) gain share over the course of the next two years. Meanwhile, IDC is predicting that standalone HMDs will gain share in the outer years of the forecast.

"Virtual reality has suffered from some unrealistic growth expectations in 2017, but overall the market is still growing at a reasonable rate and new products from Microsoft and its partners should help drive additional interest in the final quarter of this year," said Tom Mainelli, vice president, Devices and AR/VR at IDC, "As we head into 2018 we'll see additional new products appearing, including standalone headsets from major players, and we expect to see a growing number of companies embracing the technology to enable new business processes and training opportunities."

Worldwide AR/VR headsets shipment share, 2017, 2021

Category

Segment

2017

2021

AR

Commercial

71.1%

82.5%

Consumer

28.9%

17.5%

Total

100%

100%

VR

Commercial

21.8%

27.8%

Consumer

78.2%

72.2%

Total

100%

100%

Source: IDC, compiled by Digitimes, September 2017

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 3:17:42 PM
   of 5039
 

"rising revenues from AirPods and Apple Watches"................................................................




Upstream suppliers to enjoy rising revenues from AirPods and Apple Watches in 4Q17
Monica Chen, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Monday 2 October 2017]
Quanta Computer, Inventec as well as the ASE group's Universal Scientific Industrial (USI) and the Foxconn group's Shunsin Technology and Luxshare-ICT, are expected to see strong growths for their wearable product operations in the fourth quarter thanks to rising sales for Apple's AirPods and Watches, according to sources from the upstream supply chain.

With the Apple Watch series 3's support for the LTE connection, phone functionality and the AirPods, demand for the smartwatches has been picking up recently.

Quanta and USI have been long-term supply-chain partners of the Apple Watch series and are expected to see a significant revenue contribution from the orders, while Shunsin has just recently joined the supply chain to provide SiP services and will begin processing related orders in February or March 2018, the sources noted.

As for the AirPods, the sources pointed out that the shortages have already eased and Apple has also increased its orders for the device.

Inventec is the manufacturer of the AirPods, while the device's communication module is supplied by Luxshare-ICT. In addition to the orders, Luxshare-ICT also supplies connectors, cables and antennas for Mac and iPhone products.

However, all companies declined to comment on their orders or clients

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 3:21:41 PM
   of 5039
 

"growing (AI) smart speaker market".......................................................................



More supply chain makers vying for growing smart speaker market
Sammi Huang, Taipei; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES [Friday 29 September 2017]
More supply chains for AI-based voice assistant devices and smart speakers have begun to emerge as nearly all heavyweight tech companies including Google, Apple, Samsung Electronics, Amazon, Microsoft and China-based Alibaba, Xiaomi Technology and Tencent all have jumped on the bandwagon, according to industry sources.

Taiwan-based supply chain makers engaging in production of camera modules, biometrics chips, displays, touch panels, driver ICs, network communication chips and ODMs are looking to grab a greater share of the growing market pie, said the sources.

IC-design house MediaTek has been benefiting from Amazon's launch of its Echo family products, said the sources, adding that MediaTek is currently the primary chipset supplier for Echo smart speakers, accounting for over 50% of Amazon's purchases of chips for Echo products, according to a Chinese-language Economic Daily News report.

Texas Instruments (TI) and Intel are the two other chipset suppliers for Amazon, said the report.

However, China-based chipset maker Amlogic is stepping up efforts to compete against MediaTek for Amazon's chipset orders for 2018, the sources indicated.

Amazon's recently released Echo Plus and Echo Spot will also benefit other supply chain makers, including Foxconn Electronics (ODM), Merry Electronics (acoustic components), Ability Opto-Electronics Technology (optical lenses) and Chicony Electronics (power supply).

Makers in the supply chains for Google Home and Apple's HomePad are also likely to see strong sales in 2018 as Google is set to announce new Google Home devices in October and Apple is to release new HomePod products in December.

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 3:28:30 PM
   of 5039
 

IoE, Industry 4,0 added IPC demand drivers..............................................



Seeking to become major IoT brand: Q&A with Aaeon chairman YS Chuang
Ninelu Tu, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES [Thursday 28 September 2017]
As one of Taiwan's major makers of industrial PCs, Aaeon Technology was back to the capital market in late August 2017, when it was relisted on the local bourse six years after it was acquired by Asustek Computer and delisted in 2011. Over the years, the entire IPC industry has flourished remarkably, driven by the IoT (Internet of Things) and Industry 4.0 trends, and the company has also experienced significant growths and upgrades.

During a recent interview by Digitimes, YS Chuang, chairman of Aaeon, talked about the changes, opportunities and challenges facing Taiwan's IPC industry, the company's changes over the past six years, and its goals after going public again.

Q: How do you see the changes in the IPC industry and market trends?

A: Taiwan IPC players used to focus on factory automation, infrastructures, and vertical markets such as medical care, national defense and transportation. But the emergence of the IoT concept has driven a wider variety of industrial applications for IPC products, and stricter specification requirements will also affect the future development of the IPC industry. Besides, commercial automation will be a new IoT application field, allowing great room for development by IPC makers.

In terms of business models, leading players such as Advantech and Adlink Technology have focused on promoting their own brand products while also handling some medium-size contract manufacturing orders. Smaller firms have mostly relied on small contract manufacturing orders. But Ennoconn's move to focus on contract manufacturing has created certain impacts on traditional IPC makers and generated more collaboration between ICT and IPC firms .

Over the past 3-5 years, acquisitions have increased, gradually changing the business models of the industry. After Asustek Computer announced its acquisition of Aaeon in late 2010, Foxconn has since acquired Ennoconn, which has again made acquisitions of its own. Advantech and Adlink have also purchased stakes in small system integrators or industrial tool suppliers to expand their markets and become more competitive. Moreover, such ICT players as Wistron, Compal and Inventec have also started to engage in deeper cooperation with IPC makers.

There are now more than 30 IPC enterprises in Taiwan, mostly operating on a small to medium scale, leaving much room for acquisitions and mergers among them. Our company is also seeking acquisition opportunities, but the targets will be players in areas where Aaeon's expertise does not lie, such as gaming or POS.

Q: What are the advantages and disadvantages the changing industrial environments will bring to IPC makers?

A: The emerging IoT, Industry 4.0 and smart industry concepts have fueled the development of a greater diversity of IPC products and applications such as commercial automation. In this regard, growing pricing pressure will force globally leading IPC makers to farm out production, triggering flexible demand for small-volume and large-variety production services.

For Taiwan IPC players, growing IoT applications will bring them a bright business prospect, as Taiwan's robust ICT industries and sound supply chain infrastructures will boost domestic IPC makers' competitiveness in the global markets.

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 3:40:35 PM
   of 5039
 

4GB RAM Sony mid-tier Xperia XA1 Plus. Yes, mid-tier.................................................................


And,...
RAM & NAND prices could start dropping as new nodes and layers ramp. Price Elasticity.

Remember?
the shill. A few years ago.
Anemic 250MB fones were replacing PCs. LOL.
I've seen an 8GB fone. That's 32X.
23MP camera requires gobs and gobs of NAND bits.
Why would anyone believe a shill or a sponsored "expert".
shills paid 7 figures to move prices.
"experts" paid to support shills.

Me?
Facts.
Innovators and entrepreneurs with new techniques and materials.
Done EUV/ArF.

ASML.





Taiwan market: Sony Mobile launches mid-tier Xperia XA1 Plus
Max Wang, Taipei; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 3 October 2017]
Sony Mobile Communications has launched its new mid-tier model, Xperia XA1 Plus, in the Taiwan market, priced at NT$11,900 (US$392) unlocked.

The Xperia XA1 Plus comes with a 5.5-inch touchscreen display with a resolution of 1080 by 1920. The model is powered by a MediaTek 1.6GHz octa-core Helio P20 processor and comes with 4GB of RAM and 32GB ROM.

The Xperia XA1 Plus packs a 23-megapixel primary camera on the rear and an 8-megapixel front selfie shooter. It comes with a high-end camera as the photograph capability has become one of the most important features of today's smartphones, according to Jonathan Lin, general manager of Sony Mobile Taiwan.

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 3:56:19 PM
   of 5039
 

MediaTek to test NB-IoT in Japan 1Q18.........................................................

"MediaTek's commitment to an exciting new era that's set to fuel the massive growth of the Internet of Things."

5G IoE is going to be a yuge EUV/ArF bit driver.

ASML.




MediaTek to conduct interoperability tests with SoftBank for NB-IoT development in Japan
Rodney Chan, DIGITIMES, Taipei [Tuesday 3 October 2017]
MediaTek has announced it will conduct a series of interoperability tests of NarrowBand IoT connectivity (NB-IoT) with SoftBank in the first quarter of 2018 to pave the way for development of NB-IoT commercial applications in Japan.

"MediaTek is proud to be at the forefront of NB-IoT technology innovation, which has the potential to deliver new ways to connect that are both cost effective and power efficient," said Yoshitaka Sakurai, general manager of MediaTek Japan, as cited in a press release. "This initiative with SoftBank, along with the unveiling of our MT2625 NB-IoT SoC solution and our collaboration with leading telecommunications companies around the world, demonstrates MediaTek's commitment to an exciting new era that's set to fuel the massive growth of the Internet of Things."

MediaTek said it has played a pivotal role in the formulation and implementation of the 3GPP LPWA specification for NB-IoT. The company recently unveiled its integrated and ultra-low-power MT2625 NB-IoT SoC and announced its collaboration with China Mobile to build the world's smallest NB-IoT module (16mm X 18mm) around the chipset.

The company said its MT2625 NB-IoT chipset is built to meet the requirements of cost-sensitive and small IoT devices and leverages MediaTek's advanced power consumption technology to enable IoT devices to work with batteries for years. The SoC combines an Arm Cortex-M microcontroller (MCU), pseudo-static RAM (PSRAM), flash memory and power management unit (PMU) into a small package to lower the cost of production while also speeding up time-to-market. The MT2625 supports a full frequency band (from 450MHz to 2.1GHz) of 3GPP R13 (NB1) and R14 (NB2) standards for a wide range of IoT applications including smart home control, logistics tracking and smart meters.

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 4:06:56 PM
   of 5039
 
China racing to complete 1st round of NAND & RAM fabs......................................................

"expected to take delivery of the first batch of advanced lithography machines by the end of 2017"

Watch the RAM and NAND GBs stuffed in gadgets soar. Price Elasticity. Here, history DOES repeat.

ASML.



Plant construction geared up at major China memory bases
Jean Chu, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES [Monday 2 October 2017]
China's three major memory production bases, Wuhan, Fujiang and Hefei, are seeing construction of DRAM and NAND flash manufacturing plants moving into high gear, with the No. 1 plant of Wuhan's Yangtze Memory Tech (YMTC) already topping out in late September, according to industry sources.

The sources said Fijian's Jinhua Integrated Circuit was carrying out memory plant construction at the fastest pace among three makers covered by China's special memory development project, slated to finish the construction of its key plant structure in October this year. But it was outpaced by Wuhan-based YMTC, which already topped out its No. 1 memory production plant, plus its energy facility, under the first phase of the project on September 28, ahead of schedule.

In the first phase, YMTC will invest a total of US$24 billion in building three large-sized 3D NAND flash manufacturing plants on a total land area of 1,969 acres, with construction kicking off in late 2016.

The firm's No. 1 plant is set for official run in 2018, with a monthly production capacity of 300,000 wafers and annual production valued estimated at over US$10 billion. The company is engaged in massive recruitment of talent needed to support the operation of the new plant.

In addition, YMTC is also stepping up the development of new memory products. It has completed the development of 32-layer 3D NAND flash memory, and is developing more-advanced 64-layer memory, which is scheduled for mass production in 2019. The company aims to become a globally leading supplier of storage chips by the end of 2020.

Meanwhile, the Hefei-based Rui-Li IC is actively placing orders with suppliers for a variety of DRAM manufacturing equipment, and is expected to take delivery of the first batch of advanced lithography machines by the end of 2017. As the most aggressive DRAM startup in China, the company has zeroed in on the 19nm process node for the production of DRAM, and will then advance to 17nm, aiming to become the most advanced DRAM supplier in China

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 4:15:02 PM
   of 5039
 
Kilowatts: "3nm process likely to double that by 5nm"..................................................................................

Ton more layers?
Pulses.
EUV/ArF pulses almost exclusively.

ASML



Commentary: Triple-win decision for TSMC to build 3nm wafer fab in Taiwan
Josephine Lien, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES [Monday 2 October 2017]
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has recently decided to set up the world's first 3nm wafer fab in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSP) after gaining government promises to address all the water, power and land supply issues involved. This has been widely recognized as a triple-win decision for Taiwan, TSMC, and the upstream and downstream supply chains of the country's semiconductor industry.

TSMC had mulled setting up its 3nm wafer fab in the US due mainly to the availability of stable power supply there. For any 12-inch wafer plant, more advanced process requires higher power consumption, with electricity consumed by 3nm process likely to double that by 5nm process. Accordingly, after a massive power outage occurred on August 15, 2017 around Taiwan, doubts had deepened over whether Taiwan's power supply could secure normal operation of a 3nm wafer fab in the country.

It is believed that TSMC's 3nm wafer fab requires total power consumption of 1.25 million kilowatts and the foundry house's total power consumption after the new fab becomes operational will command 10% of Taiwan's total power supply. The state-run Taiwan Power has pledged to expand its power generating capacity.

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From: BeenRetired10/4/2017 4:23:07 PM
   of 5039
 

“China to install first EUV equipment as early as 2019, says ASML executive”..........................................

"In addition, Kim commented that litho equipment demand from China is set to grow robustly in 2018-2019"






China to install first EUV equipment as early as 2019, says ASML executive
Jean Chu, Shanghai; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Monday 2 October 2017]
Major China-based IC foundries are already in talks with ASML about the installation of their first extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment for the manufacture of 7nm chips, according to Young-Sun Kim, country manager of ASML China. The first EUV litho system is expected to be installed at a China-based foundry as early as 2019, said Kim.

Once a leading China-based foundry installs EUV equipment, other local foundry chipmakers are expected to follow suit, Kim noted.

In response to some speculation indicating China-based foundries are given less priority for the supply of EUV litho tools, Kim clarified that ASML treats every single customer equally. As long as orders are confirmed, ASML will fulfill the orders and ship EUV litho tools to China without any problems, Kim noted.

There are more than 50,000 components required to build an EUV system, Kim continued. The lead time between the orders confirmation and the delivery of tools is around 21 months, Kim said.

In addition, Kim commented that litho equipment demand from China is set to grow robustly in 2018-2019. In addition to China-based IC foundries, their bigger international rivals have moved to invest aggressively in their local fabs in China, Kim said.

China's litho equipment market has the potential to generate EUR3 billion (US$3.55 billion), Kim noted. ASML has over 40 customers in China including not only first-tier chip vendors but also small- and medium-size foundries.

Kim disclosed that ASML's sales generated from the China market grew slightly to EUR600 million in 2016. ASML's sales generated from China in the first half of 2017 already topped EUR400 million, said Kim, adding that the sales for all of 2017 are set to see substantial on-year growth.

ASML expects to see its sales from China hit an all-time high in 2018, Kim indicated. Sales will continue to grow in 2019, Kim added.

ASML will continue to expand its operations locally in China, and establish closer ties with local science and technology research institutions, according to Kim. ASML currently has a total of 11 branch offices to service its local customers in China, and is looking to add a new office in Chengdu in early 2018, said Kim.

ASML also has R&D teams stationed in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, Kim indicated. ASML's total workforce in China has reached nearly 600 people, said Kim, adding that the company will continue to expand its local workforce in the region in 2018 and 2019.

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