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 Technology Stocks | BEA Systems (BEAS) - Undiscovered Growth Stock

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To: cmchang who wrote (1342)9/23/2000 1:45:53 PM
From: Howard Bennett   of 2477
 
EPS and momentum BEAS and SEBL

According to Yahoo finance (how trustworthy are the numbers?)....both SEBL and BEAS are enjoying astounding EPS growth this year -- 141% and 108% respectively.

The next FY though the growth seems to be somewhat muted -- 38% and 49% respectively.

This, to me, would imply that these companies would start to give guidance to the street that revenue and EPS growth will not continue as robustly as in the past year. This further inplies to me a P/E contraction.

To me this is classic momentum -- which usually ends badly for those buying now after a huge momentum run.

Post Scriptum -- I love BEAS Tuxedo product. So I'm a fan. Before going-off on me with a personal attack know this: there is no malace in this text....I'm just cogitating out loud.

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To: Howard Bennett who wrote (1343)9/24/2000 4:16:12 AM
From: cmchang   of 2477
 
That's good technical data. My call is based on technical knowledge about app.servers (WebLogic, not Tuxedo - new vs. old) That app.server market is at the growth stage, tuxedo - that's a mature market and a cash cow for BEA. WebLogic is one of the best servers out there. They have the market share and are a potential gorilla. Given that the app.sever market is (arguably) in a tornado, I'm betting BEA has a bright future ahead. Also, recent analyst which met with management and reset their estimates to $100. Assuming no major overall market corrections, I'm going long. :)

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To: cmchang who wrote (1344)9/24/2000 9:50:18 AM
From: clark readler   of 2477
 
I think you have it right.

The project I am working on is looking at app servers and security products e.g., Securant, Netegrity. The security vendors vendors contend that iPlant 6.0 isn't there yet, WebSphere by IBM is cobbled together from Encina and Component broker, both of which lost out to BEA in the past (How many Encina implimentations can you name.) And by far the best product is Web logic.

Also, Earnings growth is irrelevant. Revenue growth is the key as in 50%+.

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To: cmchang who wrote (1344)9/24/2000 9:53:45 AM
From: Howard Bennett   of 2477
 
Thanks for your insight.

It is possible that EPS estimates will be revised upward (i.e. the current estimates for BEAS next FY are too low)....which would imply continued strong growth.

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To: clark readler who wrote (1345)9/26/2000 11:01:03 AM
From: Howard Bennett   of 2477
 
TA -- BEAS Double top.

Failure to take out the old highs will make a Double top.

fyi...I'm neither long nor short this stock. I'm just into TA

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To: Howard Bennett who wrote (1347)9/26/2000 7:03:07 PM
From: DJ Clancey   of 2477
 
For us non-TA's, could you explain the significance of the double top.

Don't know about the TA area, but BEA's products are hot in the field right now.

Thanks.

DJ

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To: DJ Clancey who wrote (1348)9/26/2000 7:15:16 PM
From: Ginko   of 2477
 
That fact that BEAS has held its own during this tech debacle bodes well that it will break "resistance" around the 80 area and move substantially higher. Look for high volume to occur as those who are shorting at these resistance levels cover their position - which will add to the move.

The adage - old resistance becomes new support will ring true in this case.

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To: DJ Clancey who wrote (1348)9/26/2000 8:21:03 PM
From: Howard Bennett   of 2477
 
stockcharts.com 

BEAS need to get thru $80 convincingly....and hold.

Otherwise....the chart pattern looks double top-ish (at least to me).

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To: Howard Bennett who wrote (1350)9/27/2000 2:05:54 AM
From: cmchang   of 2477
 
Are you saying that a double-top (around 80 this past Monday) is relevant on a one day chart? If so, you can probably find lots of those. :) I believe double-tops are more relevant over a longer period of time(at least more than one day) as your earlier post's link showed.

BEAS has hit a new high. Usually a bullish signal. I'm hoping for new sky. However, the whole market has to cooperate. Given we've done ok on a not so great market, if it turns, it will be better for BEA. Good luck to all longs.

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To: cmchang who wrote (1351)9/27/2000 8:49:09 AM
From: Howard Bennett   of 2477
 
The $80 I was referring to was from earlier this year.

The highs set 2/22/00.

Perhaps it will take out $80 today.

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