Atmel - the trend is about to change | Stock Discussion Forums

To: Vikas who wrote (3532)	2/10/1997 9:58:00 PM
From: Joel Mick	of 13564

I agree with your assessment of the 40-45 range. I am long ATML, but unlike you wiser folks, I didn't write cc's or sell out when in the 46-48 range, but rather belatedly bought some March 42.5 calls when ATML went south to 41 last Wednesday. (Also bought some AMAT March 45 calls then which worked out real nice for me.) With the decreased volitility in ATML the past few days, I no longer expect to see 47 again soon, and am wondering when you think I should liquidate the options. ATML has hit 44 the past two sessions, but both times seems to have gotten dragged down by overall weakness in the tech sector later in the session. Do you suggest liquidating next time ATML hits 44, or do you think it will go much higher if/when we finally get a day with a sustained tech rally? Thanks for the advice Joel

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To: edwin mok who wrote (3534)	2/10/1997 10:52:00 PM
From: Vikas	of 13564

Edwin, I think the chances for Atmel to go above 45 within 2 weeks is greater than the chances for it to fall below 40. However, I still expect it to stay within this range. If my prediction is correct (which is not always the case), then I'm left with 3 scenarios: (1) ATML at 40: I do nothing and keep the $2 premium in my pocket. Since I bought in at 42 1/8 the last time, it's as if I've gained nothing and lost nothing. (2) ATML at 42 1/2: I do nothing ($2/share in my pocket at I'm still up 3/8 on my shares...the optimal situation). (3) ATML at 45: The call is assigned and I have to sell ATML at 42 1/2 (I still gain 3/8 since I bought at 42 1/8). I buy back in to Atmel the following Monday (hopefully a bit lower than 45, but possibly a bit higher). I am comfortable with any of the above scenarios (although I obviously prefer (2). Vikas

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To: Joel Mick who wrote (3535)	2/10/1997 10:59:00 PM
From: Vikas	of 13564

Joel, First of all, we folks who trade on the swings and sell covered calls are no wiser than anyone else (in fact, I feel I'm terrible at timing the market). However, from past experience, we've learned that Atmel goes through tremendous volatility before finally going higher in the long-run...we wish to benefit from this volatility... anyone who has studied the charts for the past year can do it. As far as when to liquidate the March 42.5 CALLs, this is hard to say. Atmel's volatility does "seem" to be decreasing, but it can pick up at any time. My personal goal is to always make at least $1 when I sell out of options (either covering sold options or selling owned options). There's a good chance Atmel may make another run after February options expire (we just don't know which direction it will take). Sorry I can't give any additional input...it's just too difficult to predict at this point (market's still very shaky). Steve: any ideas? Vikas

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To: Vikas who wrote (3541)	2/11/1997 2:35:00 PM
From: JakeStraw	of 13564

The following press release seems to be related to the NASDAQ weakness today: Microsoft( Microsoft Corp ) reiterates slower growth outlook NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuter) - Microsoft Corp vice president and treasurer Greg Maffei reiterated the company's outlook for slower overall growth. "I am virtually certain that growth will slow in the future," Maffei told a Goldman Sachs technology conference. Maffei's comment generally repeated cautionary statements issued by Microsoft last month when it reported fiscal second quarter earnings. In particular, Maffei cited slower growth in Microsoft's desktop applications business, which contibutes a considerable portion of the company's overall revenues. "It's a challenge to get corporations to upgrade ..it's a slower growth business," Maffei said. In January, Microsoft introduced a major upgrade of its Office suite of applications software. Maffei also said that, despite rapid sales growth for the company's Windows NT software, the product was not expected to have a significant impact on revenues in fiscal 1997. Rick Sherlund, a Goldman Sachs analyst, forecast Microsoft would ship between two and three million units of Windows NT in fiscal 1997, up from one million a year ago. ((-- Wall Street desk, 212-859-1730))

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