Actually, Daniel, I projected $80 (pre-split) for the year 2000 while Atmel was at $12 (pre-split) in late 1998. At that time I had also mentioned $40 by the 2Q 1999 earnings report. I've been lucky to have hit both projections. So let's see how much further that luck can go. Here are my thoughts. Earnings in 2001 of $1.50 (the highest "expert" prediction I've seen is $1.35); a forward looking p/e this year of 50 (that's conservative) which would lead to a stock price this year, looking ahead to next year, of $75. Next year's stock price will depend on projections for 2002 and I'm not able to guess that far ahead with any sense of reality. However, we're in the early second year of what usually is a four year cycle. IF that's the case (and it's a big "if" -- hence I've capitalized it), then next year will be the high water mark before the stock price moves down in advance of the business's cyclical down turn. ...Unless, of course, the rules have changed, and Atmel continues in the forefront of all good new technology and there's no competition and...and...and.... In other words, later this year or sometime next year may be a good time to get out.
All that being said, I see another possibility, one I mentioned on this thread, oh, two years ago or so as a possibility once Atmel had turned its own business around to being profitable. I can see the possibility of Atmel's being bought out by an IBM-type company, one whose market capitalization dwarfs Atmel's strongly increasing capitalization. Unfortunately, I don't think I have the...courage (read that, kahonas) to stay in that long. If this hummer hits the 70s this year I suspect it'll be "ta-ta turbi." In the meantime, I'm enjoying my core shares + additional, and my May and August calls all move up strongly. And I believe we've got a ways to go. As I've disclosed in the past, so I will disclose in the future if and when I sell anything in the future. Hope this helps. Cheers/t |
