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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (43803)	3/18/2003 8:32:20 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	of 50161

Let the party begin-I can see celebrations in Basra, Karballa, and Najaf already March 18, 2003 The Iranian In the next few weeks Saddam al-Takriti will be toppled by the "coalition of willing" consisting of United States, the ever obliging U.K. and Burkina Faso -- as well as a few misguided not-so-smart American bombs. The hypocritical President Chirac might seem like The Night in Shining Armor for those sipping Lavazza Espresso at SoHo's Cafe Gitan. But the moral standing of France after Algeria, is as good as Rwanda's Hutus. So from where I am standing, Chirac's more like Don Quixote with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder making a special appearance as Sancho Panza. Let's be candid. The neo-conservatives in the current U.S. regime are a bunch of nauseating characters that view Arabs and all other brown people in a xenophobic fashion. Yet their anticipated triumph will usher in new dimensions in the geo-political realities in this wretched region that is worth arguing for. The Iraqis will be liberated, let us not beat around the bush over this. I can see the celebrations in Basra, Karballa, and Najaf already. The average Iraqi household will be healthier, better-off, and more secure five years from now. Democracy, despite all the promises will have to wait. Beirut's shady discothèques will be packed with a hodgepodge of Saudi royals after Zalmay Khalilzad starts his next project: "democratization" of the House of Saud. For a government that bankrolled Saddam, Mullah Omar and other perceptive characters, we will indeed enjoy seeing the self-labeled custodians of Mecca and Medina in hot water. The demilitarization of Iraqi society and potential rule of a federalist government could usher in a new era in Iraqi-Iranian relations when the dust has settled. A Franco-German style Elysée Treaty is essential between these two nations (no mater who is running Tehran) as a way of coming to terms with the past. Palestine will be established as a free state. Perhaps not in 2005 as we are duped to believe by the opportune U.S. "vision", but more likely in 2015 when there is not much of it left at any rate. Let us not underestimate the colossal events that are about to unfold. A brutal regime is about to be removed, American supremacy as a hyper-power will be established and the French will learn to live with it. At least Basra's former shabby Casino Royal will re-opened with a good deal of fanfare to the enchantment of Arab Sheikhs, Iranian Bazaaris, British spies, and Russian women. iranian.com

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To: JEB who wrote (43806)	3/21/2003 11:59:53 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	of 50161

Various thoughts on Iraq: Zachary Latif 00:42 Since the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq has become a reality I decided to pen down a few thoughts (and predictions) that I had on the subject: The Iraqi war and its aftermath will prove to be much more interesting than Afghanistan since Kuwait has brilliant hotels for journalists. The aftermath will naturally be followed more closely than that of Afghanistan, which has receded from the public fore along with Hamid Karzai and his troubles. Iraq as a relatively developed nation is more accessible, not as removed from civilisation and its people are literate urbanites as opposed to tribals, the globe will be more concerned about their fate. The war on Iraq will be an extremely short one. Iraqis are renowned by their fellow Arabs for being a brutal, treacherous & traitorous people (a harsh generalisation indeed!). Iraqis are the only people who turned their back on their own religious leader and left him to be massacred by a vastly superior force (because of Iraqis the Shi'ite mourn on Muharram). Hell if they can do that to the grandson of the Prophet (PBUH) why should they spare Saddam such a fate! Baghdad has always been the focal point of Iraq and its successful capture will be the end of any resistance. I admire Bush's forthrightness nevertheless in this case I believe he may be rather too prudent when warns Americans that this will be a long war and cost many causalities. The JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) have an accuracy rate of over 90% and will target Iraqi facilities with the minimal of civilian casualties. Baghdad's capture will rid opposition forces of a nexus point and the architectural spread of Baghdad means that its wide avenues (as opposed to the cloistered streets of Mogadishu) will inhibit the urban fighting as seen in Somalia. Once Baghdad and more specifically Saddam's authority collapses (bombing his bunker is the first step and the Americans claims he was inside at the time) Iraqi resistance will fold like a deck of cards. Iraq maybe an artificial nation but its peoples are united by their survival instinct and ruggedness. They, and the officers the Republican Guard, realise that cooperation with an undeniably superior force will protect their assets and their lives. The Republican Guard officers understand that the offer of amnesty may go as far as to protect their vast property holding in Baghdad and already Iraqi troops are surrendering. Perhaps the earlier rumours of mass defection were only propaganda but its psychological effect on Iraqis who perceived that the regime was being undermined by its own treachery. Through a successful victory in Iraq, Bush and Blair will emerge as undeniable victors. Casting forth moral righteousness in a world seemingly blurred in shades of gray, Blair's domestic troubles and Bush's foreign handicaps will be things of the past. Their political careers will be renewed or perhaps in Blair's case gracefully culminated by success in the Middle East. I would go short on oil and long on the dollar. The Rumalia oil fields may have burnt by the Iraqi soldiers but the price of oil is exacerbated by the conflict and fears in Iraq. Once a successful conclusion is inevitable the risk premium on oil and the discount on the dollar will be no more since OPEC nations are already worrying about a glut in world supply. At any rate even if Iraq's oil production is handicapped by Saddam, only 2.5% of the world's daily supply is at risk and can be covered adequately by the US's Strategic Petroleum Reserve at some 600mn barrels. Oil prices collapsed to $10 a barrel following the Gulf War and as the Financial Times put it following the short wars of the latter half of the century (Yom Kippur, Kosovo, etc) the industries that tend to over perform are software, construction and expansionary industries. If the situation is any worse then the last resort would be always to march in Venezuela and solve the general strike crippling the oil industry. The world economy isn't that exposed to oil and at any rate analysts have effectively shown that a deep reduction in oil prices would bring such a significant boon to the economy as previously thought, thus the fact that the war was about oil is completely ludicrous. Iraq will become the pearl of the Middle East, slushing in aid and oil money finally put to good use, it will be allowed to continue its natural evolution along geopolitical fault lines without impediment from tyrants such as Saddam Hussein. Kurdistan will become a reality (political or cultural it remains to be seen) and Shi'ism will once again flourish in the southerly regions, life will be good for Iraqis and they need only thank Mr Bush. latif.blogspot.com

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (43812)	3/21/2003 2:16:14 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	of 50161

Whole Iraq will talk like this in few days.. <A few men and boys ventured out, putting makeshift white flags on their pickup trucks or waving white T-shirts out truck windows. from www.yahoo.com "Americans very good," Ali Khemy said. "Iraq wants to be free." Some chanted, "Ameriki! Ameriki!" Many others in the starving town just patted their stomachs and raised their hands, begging for food. A man identifying himself only as Abdullah welcomed the arrival of the U.S. troops: "Saddam Hussein is no good. Saddam Hussein a butcher." An old woman shrouded in black — one of the very few women outside — knelt toward the feet of Americans, embracing an American woman. A younger man with her pulled her away, giving her a warning sign by sliding his finger across his throat. In 1991, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died after prematurely celebrating what they believed was their liberation from Saddam after the Gulf War. Some even pulled down a few pictures of Saddam then — only to be killed by Iraqi forces. Gurfein playfully traded pats with a disabled man and turned down a dinner invitation from townspeople. "Friend, friend," he told them in Arabic learned in the first Gulf War. "We stopped in Kuwait that time," he said. "We were all ready to come up there then, and we never did." The townspeople seemed grateful this time. "No Saddam Hussein!" one young man in headscarf told Gurfein. "Bush!" >

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