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To: Gaston Teran who wrote (13712)11/7/1997 3:35:00 PM
From: Bo surfs
   of 50167
Gaston- I'm not disagreeing with you about Hussein moving markets for his personal benefits, but about the point of war being a ttraumatic experience-- the man is somewhat insane. He doesn't care about his people like governments of other countries. Iraq's government is not for the people, it is for Saddam Hussein. He controls everything that people do or hear, he controls their minds. And he is plenty rich. There was a list of wealthiest Heads of State's a few months ago Saddam and his son Uday were on the list-I believe top 5 or top 10- it said "Son Uday controls all smuggling." Just my two cents.

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (13711)11/7/1997 4:18:00 PM
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OJ- please look at my message closing basis- I never believed that they can pull this one even to break 910- at the same time Mohan posted a really dangerous piece but I know my fundamentals are right the test of 916.5 was real blow and higher lows- when I was sticking my neck out Brazil was closed being down 10% they rattled every one closed out lot of stops and brought the S&P at 930- good luck to shorts the next time.

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (13711)11/7/1997 4:21:00 PM
From: Clay M
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Re: Dec S&P's, did anybody notice the double low with huge downticks,
at 9:45 (-1444) and at 2:24 (-1299). That looks like the support for now.

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To: Gaston Teran who wrote (13714)11/7/1997 4:44:00 PM
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Gaston- The way the shorts are being bled to death is unbelievable, imagine you have a double test of 916 and you are back up to 930 above the resitance of 928 what does it tells you- you have bell-weathers like MSFT moving up from 130 to 131 INTC from 73 to 77 the markets which are shaky have no supports for bell weathers- I was so sure that this thing is going to stay where it is because a businessman cannot neglect the visible- the deflation threat is over so now letsd deal with risings wages but for that you have already taken 800 points off the market so actually 1% interest rise under non-deflation environment is already built up- is US economy strong on its own?- no it is very much an integral part of global economy and by the way it basically runs and is the mainstay of the global economy - yes I am going to be short but when I am short I go naked shorts selling 900 calls and buying 870 puts but right now it was just noice I could hear first the crying and then silence of the lambs being slaughtered in the pits at 916,5.

This is not unfortunately a bull thread it is a thread which tries to avoid 'whipsaw'- strong economy will certainly have some people and gurus who are going to talk the same language what I have raised here today I am bit early but I am sure it is going to the right reading- Nekkei futures were down today because of expectations of further slide, Brazil was 10% down and Market could not take out 916 under these very negative circumstances it should have taken out 910- this for me is a very positive.

Profits- people are worried about deflation and its impact on corporate profits - I think corporate profits will certainly be better we are at a level which 800 points lower then highs so the mountain of irrational exuberance is chislled very finely- we are at a level as if 1996 profits did not exist and here comes INTC giving us some positive, the battle is not yet over but my visiblity is quite clear- at 8000 with these type of economic numbers we would have seen a melt down of 500 points but what can the market do when forward looking market has already discounted many bad news- bears think that market is bunch of 'greed led kids' that is not the case - I saw the people in the pits they are no-nonsense guys for me the close today is a positive close- now it is all to Japan and ASEA - I think they will positively rally on Monday- for them US economy in strong shape is the best news of the year.

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To: Judy who wrote (13705)11/7/1997 4:53:00 PM
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Judy- Today was the day- Brazil down 10% and Nekkei futures trading lower but at that level when Brazil had a stop due to circuit breaker we tested 916.5 and for 30 seconds the support held very nicely and it was like a bullet back up again- I missed that action - had to take kids to Dinner weekend night is there night but came back and saw the action. I think Monday will be a good day may be Dec 800's collect some 9 $ and take them out at 945. Lets see if this plays out as per our script- I am sure it will.

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (13716)11/7/1997 4:53:00 PM
From: Nemer
   of 50167
Cousin Ike:

-----> I know my fundamentals are right the test of 916.5 was real blow and higher lows- when I was sticking my neck out Brazil was closed being down 10% they rattled every one closed out lot of stops and brought the S&P at 930-

I find it that we acted in tandem at the same time.

My son, who is twenty eight, stopped by for an afternoon visit on his way to the golf course to see if he could get me to accompany him and a couple of friends.
At that time, he had not seen anything on the market since yesterday and viewed the screen on CNNfn to be down 170 or so points. He commented that he could see I didn't want to go golfering.....ggg
He asked what I was doing, as he could see I had pulled up one of my online brokerage accounts on the computer. I said that I was going to buy some calls on the OEX when it hit 868---- the SPX hit 916 which interploated on my scale to the same point and I bought.
He shook his head and said-----"wrong move Pop, market is going down more and get worse. DOW might close down 300."
I told him it surely wouldn't take long to see if he wanted to postpone the golf, but he left......

I realize that he's not an active trader---he only owns one or two stocks and is prepared for ups and downs in the market.
But he also doesn't recognise the importance of my resistance and support points, in spite of my constant pounding it into his head.
Well, it took my dad many years to get my attention on the lessons he learned in the market too------GGG

I don't like to carry OEX over night, much less over the weekend, so I got out with a fair profit and look forward to the new market day , Monday.

You have a nice weekend in the City of Lights and I'll have a nice one also, in the second largest Paris in the world.........ggg


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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (13716)11/7/1997 4:58:00 PM
From: Kenneth R Miller
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Iqbal Latif and anyone holding WDC long:
WDC announced that it's not going to make earnings estimates of .80, but rather in the .20-.30 range for next quarter. IF that = less than a dollar for next year EPS. and the growth rate is still at 22% (the volumn is still there) the forward YPEG is only $22.00.
I would appreciate a longer term view of this situation from the more experienced traders on this thread.

Would anyone like to comment? (I guess the sub $1000 PC is going to cause trouble for the component suppliers).

Best regards,

Ken Miller

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To: Nemer who wrote (13720)11/7/1997 5:02:00 PM
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Nemer-You and I are two 'old guys' most of the people around me were of the same opinion but where did I go go- to 'Chillies' my kids like this joint in Paris - enjoyed my meal came back to see market exacting the kind of pain it customarily does to its shorts- let see the party is not yet over.

I am positive that ASIA will take these news positively- one further development is that AG speaking in Germany stated that 'Inflation' is overstated by full one percent point- that shows with what mind of frame he goes in next FOMC- I will short but at the moment I am comfortable seeing bellweathers the earliest sign of selloff performing not only well but great.

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (13718)11/7/1997 5:49:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005
   of 50167
Ike, As always, I am aware of the fact that the probability of my being wrong is better than 50%. In the light of today's late recovery, I am increasing my vigil as a short. But, for now what I have said about next week's action stays! Keep one thing in mind - Just as bull markets have no resistance,

The way the shorts are being bled to death is unbelievable,
Iqbal bhai, with all due respect I think you can use some objectivity here. I think in the over all scheme of things are the "shorts" are a negligible number. That said, how many bulls were taken to cleaners in the latest carnage? I bet it would be many more than a few shorts who bet on the market's fall. I can give you a big list of companies through which many starry-eyed bulls have seen pie-in-the-sky until a few short weeks ago. Whatever happened to the people who bought AMAT at 50, Lam Research at 60, KLIC at 55, Ascend in the mid 50's, Western Digital at 50, Seagate ato 50, Applied Magnetics at 35, Sun Micro at 50, Xilinx at 55, Altera at 60, KO at 70, Motorola at 90, and many more. Even if some people bought those at 10% below the prices I said, they must be deeply in the red by now. Thank whom for that? The analysts? The Companies? Or plain stupid mania?

Whatever happened to those "bulls" who just blindly bought calls before the earnings are out with the speculation that these companies will beat the estimates (original or reduced) and that should be good enough for the stocks to run? How many of them did their home-work before buying in to them?

They many not admit their mistakes openly but I know they are out there. Many of them. That's why I started this new-thread so that they will learn from their mistake and from others' mistakes.

I am nobody to feel responsible for the actions of the others'. But, if I made a few to stop and think before they did something really stupid (not that I don't do stupid things. This note, for instance! -g-) I think my job is done.

Good luck!

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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (13723)11/7/1997 6:24:00 PM
From: Tom Trader
   of 50167
Hi Mohan re >>The way the shorts are being bled to death is unbelievable

I agree with your comments whole-heartedly regarding what this market has done to the longs--I invariably respect Iqbal's analysis but I think that he is sadly lacking in objectivity when he makes such a comment. Almost every sector that the people on this thread love to trade -- with the exception of the oils---are down. Some sectors--the dds and semis are not just down but are devastated-- so I am at a loss to see how the shorts are bleeding to death if the longs are suffering. Besides we know that there are individuals who have posted on this thread about the losses they have experienced during this down-turn.

I am long to the tune of about 30% in my trading account and I know how much it is down. I also know that if I had been short all that I am currently long--I'd be smiling, like a Cheshire cat right now. Fortunately, I am hedged somewhat---and I am so glad that I liquidated most of what I have into strength in the June/July period.

I am short the S&P futures finally--and for all I know this market may rally starting next week--in which case I have no doubt that I'll be long the futures at some point. So my comments above are not so much an attempt to offer a view regarding the market outlook--since I wrong as often as I am right, as far as that is concerned--but for anyone to say that this down-turn is penalizing the shorts, is not looking at the same information that I am. If I have taken Iqbal's comments out of context, I apologize.

BTW, this is the second time that we have agreed in two consecutive days -- and if you are not careful your carefully nurtured reputation among the Kahunaites will be jeopardized:)


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