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To: Sam who wrote (8688)9/7/2000 10:41:42 PM
From: Zeev Hed
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Sam, you do not get a 40 MM shares day for hype only. I am speculating that RDRT has more than just samples (probably provided with VECO's help, and even at VECO's facilities), Tyco, would not step to the plate without a very strong suit of pending qualifications. Technically, as long as the stock holds above $7, it is very bullish. I am not in right now (I got out today while the getting out was good), but I am planning on a reentry if the volume slows down. Right now, I do not think RDRT is going to be valued based on "profits expectations", but rather on FO hype, very much like the supercon filter plays. If you look at the chart of CDTS and SCON earlier this year, you can see an example of what "might" happen just based on "vaporware". Since there is no fundamental way to value RDRT right now *except putting on it "no value"), if you want to play this risky game, you'll have to rely on technical behavior. In this respect, after a huge volume day like today, you can expect a retrenchment, but it is difficult to determine what level, I have the level just above $7.75 as the rational gap filling retrenchment, but the decline to that level may take few harrowing up and downs, thus, I am going to play the "range with tight stops.

Good luck to those brave souls venturing into this game. Stitch, are you getting into this maelstrom? It is not too late (g).

Zeev

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8690)9/8/2000 7:10:02 AM
From: Stitch
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Gents,
<<Stitch, are you getting into this maelstrom? It is not too late (g).>>

I was in it before it was a maelstrom and bailed a bit early but frankly, my tears are crocodilian. Like the blind pig I managed to find the bottom of the trough so I was quite happy at my exit point, and relieved as well because those little bitty numbers made me think I was rich. I was like the kid who takes his 50 cent allowance to the store and changes it into 5 dimes, jangles it in his pocket for 20 minutes, then buys 49 cents worth of candy. Every year I manage one crazy trade (remember last year it was Komag), based on sheer rumor or a "feeling" and I think this was the one I am allowed. You really think I would purposefully tempt the gods again on this one? Besides, I am starting to look at Komag again. Oh Lordie.

FWIW I agree with your post regarding RDRT, I think there is more here then simply smoke and mirrors. But I also agree with Paul that this is no cakewalk. And Sam's skepticism is well warranted. By the way, Tom, these guys may have actually turned that sow's ear into silk, did you see this?
"Besides its $15 million investment in Scion, Tyco Ventures has invested $15 million in Read-Rite, said Richard Kashnow, president of Tyco Ventures".

yahoo.cnet.com 



Komag guys, I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
Best,
Stitch

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To: Stitch who wrote (8691)9/8/2000 10:28:17 AM
From: Yogi - Paul
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Stitch,
<<Besides, I am starting to look at Komag again. Oh Lordie.>>
<<I love the smell of napalm in the morning.>>

Let me be the first to remind you of Kurtz's last words..,
The horror. The horror.

I think I'll plug in "Ride of the Valkyries" and invade Poland or something... might be less risky <vbg>

Wild Bill Kilgore

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To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (8692)9/8/2000 11:09:58 AM
From: Stitch
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Yogi, *OT*
<<The horror. The horror.>>

Yes, I always wondered why he was thinking about Bangkok traffic just as he was getting whacked.



<g>
Stitch

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To: Tom Simpson who wrote (8689)9/8/2000 7:30:25 PM
From: Gus
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Speaking of pig's ears, did anyone else notice that one of the future owners of Seagate -- Integral Partners (Silver Lake) -- provided RDRT's Scion Photonics with $10M in venture capital?<vbg> Or that a credit unit of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter still owns (via foreclosure, if I remember correctly) the larget and most automated piggery (deep south) on the face of the planet?

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To: Gus who wrote (8694)9/8/2000 8:01:01 PM
From: Gus
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Here's the Integral Capital - Morgan Stanley - Suez (holding company for New Seagate)-Kleiner Perkins Caufied & Byers connection:

Morgan Stanley & Co. has acted as exclusive placement agent for the Integral partnerships. Morgan Stanley is a worldwide leader in technology investment banking, research, and brokerage services.


integralcapital.com 

From the 6/30/2000 10K405 filed 8/23/2000....

All of the transactions contemplated by the SAC [Suez Acquisition Company, Cayman Islands) transaction and the Merger are herein referred to as the VERITAS/Silver Lake transaction. The VERITAS/Silver Lake transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of fiscal year 2001, subject to the approval of the VERITAS stockholders and Seagate stockholders, funding of the debt commitments and clearance by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as other customary closing conditions. Seagate expects that while the VERITAS/Silver Lake transaction is pending, the value of Seagate common stock will depend primarily on the value of VERITAS common stock.

The plot thickens.........

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To: Gus who wrote (8695)9/8/2000 8:35:53 PM
From: Gus
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Fast moving events.....

From the 10K405 filed 8/23/2000

All of the transactions contemplated by the SAC [Suez Acquisition Company, Cayman Islands) transaction and the Merger are herein referred to as the VERITAS/Silver Lake transaction. The VERITAS/Silver Lake transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of fiscal year 2001, subject to the approval of the VERITAS stockholders and Seagate stockholders, funding of the debt commitments and clearance by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as other customary closing conditions. Seagate expects that while the VERITAS/Silver Lake transaction is pending, the value of Seagate common stock will depend primarily on the value of VERITAS common stock.

From the 13 E3/A filed 8/30/2000:

Q: WHEN DO YOU EXPECT THE LEVERAGED BUYOUT AND THE MERGER TO BE COMPLETED?

A: We are working toward completing the leveraged buyout and the merger as quickly as possible. We hope to complete both the leveraged buyout and the merger during the fourth calendar quarter of 2000.

Which institutional votes could be in the balance?

Style Holders $ Value % O/S Shares

Growth 126 1,601.1 17.6% 27,152,824
Value 125 1,829.8 20.2% 31,031,828
Income 25 45.6 0.5% 773,754
Index 41 1,950.9 21.5% 33,085,648
Momentum 3 44.5 0.5% 754,300
Other* 142 3,607.8 39.7% 61,184,436


*International

This style refers to those money managers investing the majority of their equity assets in stocks of companies domiciled outside of North America. In most cases, the North American portion of the portfolio is either too small or does not exist, precluding The Carson Group from determining an accurate investment style based on the fundamentals of these companies. For "Global" investors which have more significant North American holdings, a specific style may be given which will apply primarily to the North American portion of the portfolio.


12.14.65.32 

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To: Gus who wrote (8696)9/9/2000 4:14:54 PM
From: Mark Madden
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Here is a weekend report on disk drive pricing from a sample of retail distributor drives. The drives include 330 samples from 5 different distributors.

The average sample of desktop disk drive prices remained stable last week.

Weekly average price change (weekly rate):
Weighted desktop --- down 0.3%
Less than 11gb --- down 0.2%
11gb to 21gb --- even 0.0%
Greater than 21gb --- down 0.8%
Enterprise --- down 0.6%

Current Monthly price change (monthly rate):
Weighted desktop --- down 2.6%
Less than 11gb --- down 1.3%
11gb to 21gb --- down 1.8%
Greater than 21gb --- down 3.7%
Enterprise --- down 6.8

Current Quarter price change (monthly rate):
Weighted desktop --- down 2.3
Less than 11gb --- down 1.6
11gb to 21gb --- down 2.2
Greater than 21gb --- down 2.5
Enterprise --- down 3.3

2nd Calendar Quarter price change (monthly rate):
Weighted desktop --- down 3.0%
Less than 11gb --- down 3.7%
11gb to 21gb --- down 2.8%
Greater than 21gb --- down 2.6%
Enterprise --- down 1.7%

1st Calendar Quarter price change (monthly rate):
Weighted desktop --- down 1.5%
Less than 11gb --- down 1.1%
11gb to 21gb --- down 1.3%
Greater than 21gb --- down 2.2%
Enterprise --- up 0.1%

These reports are beginning to get boring. However, this is probably good for us investors. Last week SSB interviews confirmed that pricing was tough this quarter but better than last quarter. The samples show stable pricing particularly in the capacities that most drives are sold.

The enterprise drive samples have been a little weaker from the pricing stand point but the information is more difficult to confirm. IBM does not release much information and Seagate is reluctant to separate any news between the desktop and enterprise business. Also, these reports are simply identifying enterprise drives as drives using a SCSI interface. Many IDE interfaces are now being used for central storage needs in lower cost systems.

Regards,
Mark

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To: Mark Madden who wrote (8697)9/9/2000 6:18:03 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz
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>> These reports are beginning to get boring. However, this is probably good for us investors. Last week SSB interviews confirmed that pricing was tough this quarter but better than last quarter.
<<

Mark, I'm not bored at all. I think the reports are very valuable. They put in perspective what analysts say.

If pricing is better this Q, does that mean higher profits for MXTR and HDD, and perhaps break-even for WDC ? Until one month ago, the estimates for HDD and MXTR were calling for a 30c loss in the Sept Q. Now they are a 20c profit. And after seeing your price report, I think the profit scenario is much more likely.

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (8698)9/10/2000 12:57:32 AM
From: Mark Madden
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Sarmad -

The pricing patterns are different this quarter than last quarter. Last quarter began with good prices and price deterioration during the last part of the quarter. Most of the profits were likely made in the first half of the quarter. This quarter started with low prices from the previous quarter. The stable prices should have helped efficiencies and cost reductions to put the profit back in the drives. The profits should be made in the second half of this quarter. Next quarter should be the barn burner.

Regards,
Mark

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