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Biotech / Medical | VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Vector1 who wrote (8990)	10/29/2001 11:15:00 AM
From: Rocketman	of 9719

Yeah, but hindsight is sooooo good, a great way to keep making yourself feel like crap about your actions @;-) I know that we didn't want to create more margin risk, especially with all the external uncertainties of a world in turmoil and on the brink of WWIII. But, sure could have made a bundle!!! Of course at 70% we did make a bundle! Re INCY: I don't see what has changed. INCY has always had a lot of difficulty articulating their strategy. Plus, they are pretty much the least PR Saavy company in the sector - their customers are the big pharmas, and to a lesser extent the biotechs, and they have never seemed to feel that they need to give the general stock buying public much of a clue about what they are up to. I still see them as a primo long term play, and am not that concerned about the short term perturbations (not that I don't peek every day). Given their low market cap, big cash position, low enterprise value, revenue stream based on long term deals, never having lost one of their dbase customers, and of course my long term bias and history - I really want to continue holding them. I don't see much downside risk, and still see a nice upside potential. Actually, what finally has come out is that they are starting to look at what they are doing, where the cash comes from and goes to, what the competition is doing, etc... Seems like more actual business analysis than they have done in years, or ever. The end result is that they are going back to their core competency, in an area where they can make some money and not trying to be everything to everybody in areas where there is no money to be made, only lost. In other words, I think they are starting to FOCUS. I think they were also caught up in the Internet bubble mentality, of as long as I build a business with customers, I don't need to make money hype, a model which has now gone by the wayside. I like the current biochip model - let the other big boys compete with AFFX, and just supply the big boys raw materials (ie. DNA) and collect a fee, while staying out of the manufacturing and marketing business. Does that make me happy about squandering the cash they have, no, but that is the past, I want to keep looking ahead. They are educable, I think they are learning their lessons. Enough of a rant for now, time to deliver children to school... Bye for now. Rman

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (8994)	10/29/2001 8:17:25 PM
From: Cytokine1	of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 10/29/01 Change -$24280 DOWN -2.12% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^NBI DOWN -3.67% YTD EQUITY CHANGE -37.8% # CURR . DAILY CURR COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHG %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . INCY 5000 15.28 -0.97 -5.97% 76400 26.452 132259 -42.2% 6.8% BTRN 14000 5.60 0.00 0.00% 78400 9.205 128875 -39.2% 7.0% CELG 7000 33.14 -0.30 -0.90% 231980 16.452 115167 101.4% 20.7% CRXA 4000 12.75 -0.70 -5.20% 51000 14.250 57000 -10.5% 4.6% SEPR 5000 47.59 -1.41 -2.88% 237950 59.443 297213 -19.9% 21.3% VRTX 2000 25.32 -0.43 -1.67% 50640 35.042 70083 -27.7% 4.5% MLNM 2000 26.31 -0.76 -2.81% 52620 23.425 46850 12.3% 4.7% LEXG 4000 10.00 0.50 5.26% 40000 9.813 39250 1.9% 3.6% CBST 3000 41.95 0.26 0.62% 125850 15.310 45930 174.0% 11.2% OSIP 2000 43.37 -2.84 -6.15% 86740 45.000 90000 -3.6% 7.8% MOGN 2000 12.92 -0.21 -1.60% 25840 15.550 31100 -16.9% 2.3% AFFX 2000 30.81 -0.89 -2.81% 61620 22.300 44600 38.2% 5.5% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 1119040 1098326 1.9% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 0 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 70.9% MIN 30% (325617) BUYING POWER $ ______ 467807 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 793423 100000 693.4% ^NBI INDEX 871 -33.19 -3.67% 302.42 188.0% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- 10/12/01 -21850 BUY 1000 MLNM @ 21.85 10/12/01 -57000 BUY 4000 CRXA @ 14.25 10/12/01 93825 SELL 2500 TRMS @ 37.53 10/11/01 -31100 BUY 2000 MOGN @ 15.55 10/4/01 7500 SELL 2000 PRCS @ $3.75

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (9001)	10/30/2001 8:21:51 PM
From: Cytokine1	of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 10/30/01 Change -$37092 DOWN -3.31% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^NBI DOWN -2.02% YTD EQUITY CHANGE -40.7% # CURR . DAILY CURR COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHG %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . INCY 5000 14.45 -0.83 -5.43% 72250 26.452 132259 -45.4% 6.7% BTRN 14000 5.40 -0.21 -3.66% 75530 9.205 128875 -41.4% 7.0% CELG 7000 32.05 -1.09 -3.29% 224350 16.452 115167 94.8% 20.7% CRXA 4000 10.91 -1.84 -14.42% 43648 14.250 57000 -23.4% 4.0% SEPR 5000 47.29 -0.30 -0.63% 236450 59.443 297213 -20.4% 21.9% VRTX 2000 24.05 -1.27 -5.02% 48100 35.042 70083 -31.4% 4.4% MLNM 2000 24.33 -1.98 -7.53% 48660 23.425 46850 3.9% 4.5% LEXG 4000 9.77 -0.23 -2.30% 39080 9.813 39250 -0.4% 3.6% CBST 3000 40.20 -1.75 -4.17% 120600 15.310 45930 162.6% 11.1% OSIP 2000 44.86 1.49 3.44% 89720 45.000 90000 -0.3% 8.3% MOGN 2000 12.70 -0.22 -1.70% 25400 15.550 31100 -18.3% 2.3% AFFX 2000 29.08 -1.73 -5.62% 58160 22.300 44600 30.4% 5.4% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 1081948 1098326 -1.5% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 0 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 69.9% MIN 30% (325617) BUYING POWER $ ______ 430715 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 756331 100000 656.3% ^NBI INDEX 853 -17.63 -2.02% 302.42 182.1% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- 10/12/01 -21850 BUY 1000 MLNM @ 21.85 10/12/01 -57000 BUY 4000 CRXA @ 14.25 10/12/01 93825 SELL 2500 TRMS @ 37.53 10/11/01 -31100 BUY 2000 MOGN @ 15.55 10/4/01 7500 SELL 2000 PRCS @ $3.75

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (9002)	10/31/2001 8:25:52 PM
From: Cytokine1	of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 10/31/01 Change $31532 UP 2.91% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^NBI UP 1.23% YTD EQUITY CHANGE -38.2% # CURR . DAILY CURR COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHG %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . INCY 5000 14.90 0.45 3.11% 74500 26.452 132259 -43.7% 6.7% BTRN 14000 5.90 0.51 9.36% 82600 9.205 128875 -35.9% 7.4% CELG 7000 32.92 0.87 2.71% 230440 16.452 115167 100.1% 20.7% CRXA 4000 12.97 2.06 18.86% 51880 14.250 57000 -9.0% 4.7% SEPR 5000 47.44 0.15 0.32% 237200 59.443 297213 -20.2% 21.3% VRTX 2000 24.50 0.45 1.87% 49000 35.042 70083 -30.1% 4.4% MLNM 2000 25.46 1.13 4.64% 50920 23.425 46850 8.7% 4.6% LEXG 4000 9.84 0.07 0.72% 39360 9.813 39250 0.3% 3.5% CBST 3000 40.30 0.10 0.25% 120900 15.310 45930 163.2% 10.9% OSIP 2000 45.68 0.82 1.83% 91360 45.000 90000 1.5% 8.2% MOGN 2000 12.61 -0.09 -0.71% 25220 15.550 31100 -18.9% 2.3% AFFX 2000 30.05 0.97 3.34% 60100 22.300 44600 34.8% 5.4% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 1113480 1098326 1.4% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 0 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 70.8% MIN 30% (325617) BUYING POWER $ ______ 462247 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 787863 100000 687.9% ^NBI INDEX 864 10.49 1.23% 302.42 185.6% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- 10/12/01 -21850 BUY 1000 MLNM @ 21.85 10/12/01 -57000 BUY 4000 CRXA @ 14.25 10/12/01 93825 SELL 2500 TRMS @ 37.53 10/11/01 -31100 BUY 2000 MOGN @ 15.55 10/4/01 7500 SELL 2000 PRCS @ $3.75

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (9003)	11/1/2001 8:10:27 PM
From: Cytokine1	of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 11/1/01 Change $18610 UP 1.67% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^NBI UP 0.66% YTD EQUITY CHANGE -36.8% # CURR . DAILY CURR COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHG %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . INCY 5000 14.71 -0.19 -1.28% 73550 26.452 132259 -44.4% 6.5% BTRN 14000 6.06 0.16 2.71% 84840 9.205 128875 -34.2% 7.5% CELG 7000 34.62 1.70 5.16% 242340 16.452 115167 110.4% 21.4% CRXA 4000 12.25 -0.72 -5.55% 49000 14.250 57000 -14.0% 4.3% SEPR 5000 48.55 1.11 2.34% 242750 59.443 297213 -18.3% 21.4% VRTX 2000 24.80 0.30 1.22% 49600 35.042 70083 -29.2% 4.4% MLNM 2000 26.09 0.63 2.47% 52180 23.425 46850 11.4% 4.6% LEXG 4000 9.95 0.11 1.12% 39800 9.813 39250 1.4% 3.5% CBST 3000 40.25 -0.05 -0.12% 120750 15.310 45930 162.9% 10.7% OSIP 2000 44.74 -0.94 -2.06% 89480 45.000 90000 -0.6% 7.9% MOGN 2000 12.75 0.14 1.11% 25500 15.550 31100 -18.0% 2.3% AFFX 2000 31.15 1.10 3.66% 62300 22.300 44600 39.7% 5.5% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 1132090 1098326 3.1% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 0 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 71.2% MIN 30% (325617) BUYING POWER $ ______ 480857 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 806473 100000 706.5% ^NBI INDEX 869 5.67 0.66% 302.42 187.5% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- 10/12/01 -21850 BUY 1000 MLNM @ 21.85 10/12/01 -57000 BUY 4000 CRXA @ 14.25 10/12/01 93825 SELL 2500 TRMS @ 37.53 10/11/01 -31100 BUY 2000 MOGN @ 15.55 10/4/01 7500 SELL 2000 PRCS @ $3.75

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (9004)	11/2/2001 4:37:11 PM
From: Cytokine1	of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 11/2/01 Change -$14220 DOWN -1.26% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^NBI DOWN -1.78% YTD EQUITY CHANGE -37.9% # CURR . DAILY CURR COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHG %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . INCY 5000 14.25 -0.46 -3.13% 71250 26.452 132259 -46.1% 6.4% BTRN 14000 6.00 -0.06 -0.99% 84000 9.205 128875 -34.8% 7.5% CELG 7000 34.59 -0.03 -0.09% 242130 16.452 115167 110.2% 21.7% CRXA 4000 11.95 -0.30 -2.45% 47800 14.250 57000 -16.1% 4.3% SEPR 5000 48.31 -0.24 -0.49% 241550 59.443 297213 -18.7% 21.6% VRTX 2000 24.11 -0.69 -2.78% 48220 35.042 70083 -31.2% 4.3% MLNM 2000 25.00 -1.09 -4.18% 50000 23.425 46850 6.7% 4.5% LEXG 4000 10.07 0.12 1.21% 40280 9.813 39250 2.6% 3.6% CBST 3000 38.70 -1.55 -3.85% 116100 15.310 45930 152.8% 10.4% OSIP 2000 45.27 0.53 1.18% 90540 45.000 90000 0.6% 8.1% MOGN 2000 12.96 0.21 1.65% 25920 15.550 31100 -16.7% 2.3% AFFX 2000 30.04 -1.11 -3.56% 60080 22.300 44600 34.7% 5.4% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 1117870 1098326 1.8% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 0 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 70.9% MIN 30% (325617) BUYING POWER $ ______ 466637 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 792253 100000 692.3% ^NBI INDEX 854 -15.48 -1.78% 302.42 182.4% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- 10/12/01 -21850 BUY 1000 MLNM @ 21.85 10/12/01 -57000 BUY 4000 CRXA @ 14.25 10/12/01 93825 SELL 2500 TRMS @ 37.53 10/11/01 -31100 BUY 2000 MOGN @ 15.55 10/4/01 7500 SELL 2000 PRCS @ $3.75

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (9005)	11/5/2001 8:08:52 PM
From: Cytokine1	of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 11/5/01 Change $46952 UP 4.19% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^NBI UP 3.23% YTD EQUITY CHANGE -34.0% # CURR . DAILY CURR COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHG %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . INCY 5000 15.32 1.07 7.51% 76600 26.452 132259 -42.1% 6.6% BTRN 14000 6.10 -0.05 -0.78% 85400 9.205 128875 -33.7% 7.3% CELG 7000 36.54 1.96 5.67% 255780 16.452 115167 122.1% 21.9% CRXA 4000 12.45 0.50 4.18% 49800 14.250 57000 -12.6% 4.3% SEPR 5000 50.57 2.26 4.68% 252850 59.443 297213 -14.9% 21.7% VRTX 2000 26.04 1.87 7.74% 52080 35.042 70083 -25.7% 4.5% MLNM 2000 27.27 2.24 8.95% 54540 23.425 46850 16.4% 4.7% LEXG 4000 10.11 0.04 0.40% 40440 9.813 39250 3.0% 3.5% CBST 3000 39.30 0.45 1.16% 117900 15.310 45930 156.7% 10.1% OSIP 2000 44.50 -0.75 -1.66% 89000 45.000 90000 -1.1% 7.6% MOGN 2000 13.97 1.00 7.71% 27940 15.550 31100 -10.2% 2.4% AFFX 2000 32.55 2.51 8.36% 65100 22.300 44600 46.0% 5.6% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 1167430 1098326 6.3% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 0 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 72.1% MIN 30% (325617) BUYING POWER $ ______ 516197 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 841813 100000 741.8% ^NBI INDEX 881 27.55 3.23% 302.42 191.5% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- 10/12/01 -21850 BUY 1000 MLNM @ 21.85 10/12/01 -57000 BUY 4000 CRXA @ 14.25 10/12/01 93825 SELL 2500 TRMS @ 37.53 10/11/01 -31100 BUY 2000 MOGN @ 15.55 10/4/01 7500 SELL 2000 PRCS @ $3.75

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (9007)	11/6/2001 8:17:26 PM
From: Cytokine1	of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 11/6/01 Change $6640 UP 0.57% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^NBI UP 1.28% YTD EQUITY CHANGE -33.5% # CURR . DAILY CURR COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHG %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . INCY 5000 15.20 -0.12 -0.78% 76000 26.452 132259 -42.5% 6.5% BTRN 14000 5.90 -0.20 -3.28% 82600 9.205 128875 -35.9% 7.0% CELG 7000 36.36 -0.18 -0.49% 254520 16.452 115167 121.0% 21.7% CRXA 4000 12.46 0.01 0.08% 49840 14.250 57000 -12.6% 4.2% SEPR 5000 51.65 1.08 2.14% 258250 59.443 297213 -13.1% 22.0% VRTX 2000 27.26 1.22 4.69% 54520 35.042 70083 -22.2% 4.6% MLNM 2000 28.44 1.17 4.29% 56880 23.425 46850 21.4% 4.8% LEXG 4000 9.42 -0.69 -6.82% 37680 9.813 39250 -4.0% 3.2% CBST 3000 39.20 -0.10 -0.25% 117600 15.310 45930 156.0% 10.0% OSIP 2000 45.98 1.48 3.33% 91960 45.000 90000 2.2% 7.8% MOGN 2000 14.06 0.09 0.64% 28120 15.550 31100 -9.6% 2.4% AFFX 2000 33.05 0.50 1.54% 66100 22.300 44600 48.2% 5.6% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 1174070 1098326 6.9% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 0 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 72.3% MIN 30% (325617) BUYING POWER $ ______ 522837 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 848453 100000 748.5% ^NBI INDEX 893 11.30 1.28% 302.42 195.2% NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power--- 10/12/01 -21850 BUY 1000 MLNM @ 21.85 10/12/01 -57000 BUY 4000 CRXA @ 14.25 10/12/01 93825 SELL 2500 TRMS @ 37.53 10/11/01 -31100 BUY 2000 MOGN @ 15.55 10/4/01 7500 SELL 2000 PRCS @ $3.75

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