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 Biotech / Medical | VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (8985)10/26/2001 1:37:35 PM
From: Vector1   of 9719
 
Expected but great news for CBST. Probably our best trade of the year.

V1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/26 11:20A (DJ) +DJ Cubist Pharma: Cidecin Meets Efficacy Endpoint In Study
Story 4165 DJ Cubist Pharma/Cidecin -2: Success Ranged 65%-75% >CBST
LEXINGTON, Mass. (Dow Jones)--Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CBST) said
clinical results show the company's Cidecin, or daptomycin for injection,
works as well as current standards of therapy.
The company developed Cidecin for the treatment of complicated skin and soft
tissue infection caused by Gram-positive pathogens.
In a press release Friday, Cubist said it is hopeful Cidecin, should it
receive full Food & Drug Administration approval, will fill a need for novel
pharmaceutials to treat serious and life-threatening bacterial infections.
Patients in the second Phase III studies for were treated for 7 to 14 days
and randomly received Cidecin 4 mg/kg once daily, or a comparator, in which
investigators had the choice of vancomycin, given twice daily, or a
semi-synthetic penicillin, usually oxacillin, given four times daily.
The multi-center, randomized and double-blinded study enrolled 517 patients
between 18 to 85 years old, who had skin and soft tissue infections, caused by
Gram-positive bacteria, that required hospitalization.
In all groups analyzed, Cubist said, clinical success rates ranged between
65% and 75% for the Cidecin patients, versus 64% to 75%
Cubist shares of recently traded at $40.85, up 80 cents or 2%, on Nasdaq

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To: Vector1 who wrote (8988)10/26/2001 2:03:00 PM
From: Rocketman   of 9719
 
70% Equity Gain in a month, not bad!!! We were at $471K on Sept 24th, basically sitting at $800K today. Plus, I think we are positioned to see continued gains as biotech comes more and more into vogue in the mainstream.

In the should of, could of hindsight category: right around the 24th and 25th, we all knew their were lots of bargains, I was inclined to use most of the buying power, and for the most part we sat pat. C'est la vie!

Hmmmm, 70% a month, sure would be nice to keep that trend alive for a few years @;-)

Rman

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To: Rocketman who wrote (8989)10/26/2001 2:27:49 PM
From: Vector1   of 9719
 
Rman, remember, with the low values after Sept 11 I did not want to increase margin. We did add a few stocks, namely CRXA and MOGN and I think we added some AFFX post Sept 11 but I could be wrong. In hindsight we should have bought the crap our of CELG, CBST and AFFX. I am thinking of selling INCY. Management is having a lot of difficulty articulating their strategy.

V1

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To: Vector1 who wrote (8990)10/26/2001 2:49:12 PM
From: ewolf   of 9719
 
Regarding incyte-- May be worth holding. Settlement with affx seems likely now and don't you think they should be profitable sometime next year?

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To: ewolf who wrote (8991)10/26/2001 5:10:57 PM
From: Vector1   of 9719
 
Yes, I think they will make 10-15c for the year. I am concerned that management does such a poor job of articulating its business plan. In addition, at some point the revenue base on the database business will start to decrease. The whole SNP project has been a disaster and a ton of cash has been wasted on other projects from clone collections to microarrays. Why did they spend $10m in legal fees in arrays fighting AFFX when they were going to discontinue the business.

V1

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To: Vector1 who wrote (8992)10/26/2001 6:27:20 PM
From: ewolf   of 9719
 
Don't disagree with what you say. Giving into affx because they can't conduct the business successfully and the legal fees are going to accelerate. In the short term, the stock price will be affected positively if they settle. The guidance for next quarter is going to be accurate with a positive forecast for 2002. And finally, biotech is rising. Of course, you may have better use for the money. I was just thinking that Incy stock is more likely to rise than fall in the short term.

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (8985)10/27/2001 10:57:12 AM
From: Cytokine1   of 9719
 
VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 10/26/01 Change $32470 UP 2.92%
Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^NBI UP 2.18%
YTD EQUITY CHANGE -35.9%

# CURR . DAILY CURR COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF
SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHG %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL
. . . . . . . . . .
INCY 5000 16.25 0.01 0.06% 81250 26.452 132259 -38.6% 7.1%
BTRN 14000 5.60 -0.30 -5.08% 78400 9.205 128875 -39.2% 6.9%
CELG 7000 33.44 1.32 4.11% 234080 16.452 115167 103.3% 20.5%
CRXA 4000 13.45 0.25 1.89% 53800 14.250 57000 -5.6% 4.7%
SEPR 5000 49.00 0.48 0.99% 245000 59.443 297213 -17.6% 21.4%
VRTX 2000 25.75 0.69 2.75% 51500 35.042 70083 -26.5% 4.5%
MLNM 2000 27.07 1.48 5.78% 54140 23.425 46850 15.6% 4.7%
LEXG 4000 9.50 -0.15 -1.55% 38000 9.813 39250 -3.2% 3.3%
CBST 3000 41.69 1.64 4.09% 125070 15.310 45930 172.3% 10.9%
OSIP 2000 46.21 3.61 8.47% 92420 45.000 90000 2.7% 8.1%
MOGN 2000 13.13 -0.09 -0.68% 26260 15.550 31100 -15.6% 2.3%
AFFX 2000 31.70 4.14 15.02% 63400 22.300 44600 42.2% 5.5%



STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 1143320 1098326 4.1% 100.0%
SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 0
MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 71.5% MIN 30% (325617)
BUYING POWER $ ______ 492087
EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 817703 100000 717.7%


^NBI INDEX 904 19.26 2.18% 302.42 198.9%


NOTES: OPEN orders subject to available buying power---




10/12/01 -21850 BUY 1000 MLNM @ 21.85
10/12/01 -57000 BUY 4000 CRXA @ 14.25
10/12/01 93825 SELL 2500 TRMS @ 37.53
10/11/01 -31100 BUY 2000 MOGN @ 15.55
10/4/01 7500 SELL 2000 PRCS @ $3.75

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To: Rocketman who wrote (8989)10/27/2001 11:03:13 AM
From: Cytokine1   of 9719
 
R-Meister--what's that old saying, "buy when blood running in the streets"? OT--I am recovering from a munched hard drive on my Dell. Started going bad about a week ago. Dell Service sent me a new drive overnight. I spent a while partitioning the new one (shoulda partitioned the old one!). Miraculously, I got Win98 and all the drivers loaded and working again, and baaaarely was able to save the VDXXX Excel file from my limping, chugging old hard drive. Narrow escape. As you can see, I'm up and running again. C1.

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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (8995)10/27/2001 1:33:51 PM
From: scaram(o)uche   of 9719
 
C1:

Certain that I speak for the legion of VDXX followers.......... thanks for the effort!

(some lurker was asking me about the VD portfolio recently at Yahoo..... you guys are famous)

Rick

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (8996)10/27/2001 2:16:10 PM
From: Gary L. Kepler   of 9719
 
I will second the kudos. Wish I had mirrored the portfolio more closely - up 8 times in under 5 years. Here is the original portfolio:


VD's MODEL BIOTECH Portfolio 			4/14/97	 	 		
VD Inc, Portfolio Ramrods							
							
	#	CURRENT	CURRENT	COST	TOTAL	%GAIN/	% OF
SYMBOL	SHRS	PRICE	VALUE	SHR	COST	LOSS	TOTAL
_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______	_______
INCY	190	50.00	9500	52	9880	-3.8%	9.9%
GENZ	530	21.50	11395	23.5	12455	-8.5%	11.9%
CYTO	1,900	5.38	10213	5.5	10450	-2.3%	10.6%
AFFX	370	26.88	9944	27	9990	-0.5%	10.3%
GSII	1,700	5.63	9563	5.87	9979	-4.2%	9.9%
MATX	870	6.00	5220	5.75	5003	4.3%	5.4%
GZTC	1,270	7.63	9684	7.87	9995	-3.1%	10.1%
LGND	500	9.88	4938	10.12	5060	-2.4%	5.1%
HGSI	75	33.50	2513	34.25	2569	-2.2%	2.6%
BGEN	200	32.88	6575	38	7600	-13.5%	6.8%
CMTR	5,100	1.53	7809	1.47	7497	4.2%	8.1%
IDXX	540	12.88	6953	13.94	7528	-7.6%	7.2%
GENZL	240	9.75	2340	10.5	2520	-7.1%	2.4%
							
							
							
							
CASH	_______	_______	0				
MARGIN	_______	_______	(525.00)				
							
TOTALS			96119		100525	-4.4%	
							
PORTFOLIO  							
STARTED							
4/9/97

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