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To: Yaacov who wrote (26120)5/26/2000 3:30:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman   of 27012
 
Yaacov,

95% stocks 5% bonds is way conservative to me. I think you will be a BIG winner.

As far as rates go, it is my belief that things are beginning to appear that will indicate that previous rate hikes are starting to take effect. We are just now starting to see some sign of that. The effects of the last few increases will not show up for months yet. Rate increases have a delayed effect on the economy and statistical data is usually 6 months out before effects are seen. Consequently, the next hike in June wouldn't show up in the economy until the end of the year. After June we have the election period until Nov. Historically for political reasons, this is not usually a good time for rates to go up . Then we have that hot Christmas selling season with many great electronics on sale - like Sony PS2's and Intel Willamette's, etc, etc. If the Fed does a 50 basis point increase in June, that is probably it until at least the end of the year. IMO, we may only see 25 basis points and a change in bias to neutral. IF the economy slows too fast - we may see a 25-50 basis point DECREASE before the election. Gore would give his right arm for that.

Barry

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To: Yaacov who wrote (26120)5/26/2000 5:02:00 PM
From: Sonny McWilliams   of 27012
 
Yaacov. I am not a very good short term forecaster. I just go with the premise that stocks will still be the best investment for the future. I always say, if stock gains will be a thing of the past, so will be a good economy, jobs etc. and bonds will give you a cpl percent. gg.

Despite what we heard from some of the pundits this morning, it looks like this economy is already slowing down some and this when the US economy is like a big tanker, slow to turn around. I hope it does not turn around too much and head out to sea.

Anyhow, things should be looking up or maybe it's a bad omen when Gail Dudack, long term bear imo, believes that we are near a trading bottom and it looks to her that the economy is slowing down a bit. But she also thinks that the FED will keep us guessing for a while but she could see a summer rally. Let's see when this happens and where we are at that point, and then we should know a bit more about the future. I basically think the future is pretty bright for cos. Gail Dudack also believes that techs will lead us back up. At least that's what I got out of it but my memory only lasts from minute to minute in this kind of market and I did hear it only in passing, well, slow passing. gg. I mentioned Ms. Dudack in particular. What could be happening when some long time bears start to throw in the towel at the same time some long term bulls do, like Biryni? He is not bearish, just cautious. But then bull Acampora sees a bottom at one point. So do I. I am sure we will be right.<G>

Nice buys btw. And talking one more time about techs leading us out of this mess. SDLI made a good start today. Up 30 points last time I spotted it. Too bad I have JDSU instead. But I am not jealous as long as good earnings forecasts bring us better stock prices again instead of nothing helping stocks go up.

If you have read some of my prev. posts this week, you will probably get more out of those on what I am thinking. I am still a bull in a so called bear market by some. I still call it a correction, a messy correction brought on by outside forces, whatever that means. Maybe I mean not strictly by market forces.

Sonny

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To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26122)5/26/2000 9:49:00 PM
From: Brian Malloy   of 27012
 
Sonny,

It was a good day for SDLI, but don't worry. Once the ETEK merger is near complete/complete JDSU will be back to winning form. Keep nibbling on the dips. Also try to get some SDLI to round out the optics group. BRCM is also attractive in the one teens. JDSU, SDLI, and BRCM are three of the young turks that will provide outsized gains in this the first decade of the new millenium.

Regards,

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To: Brian Malloy who wrote (26123)5/27/2000 2:23:00 AM
From: Sonny McWilliams   of 27012
 
Brian. Right you are. Did you see the SDLI CEO on TV today? Well, not long after an analyst opined that he gives SDLI preference over JDSU. VRSN/NSOL merger has been given the go ahead. I don't know what is holding up this JDSU/ETEK merger. It was announced way before the VRSN/NSOL merger. I guess still wrangling about becoming a monopoly. I guess everything nowadays is considered a monopoly. Sheesh. WCOM/FON is taking forever also. And AOL/TWX. I don't know how I ended up with so many merger deals. gg.
BTW. Do you own GLW? I don't. Meant to buy it many times before and just never did.

Did you hear that ARBA and CMRC have a target price of a little over 100 by mid 2001? Maybe we should buy more CMRC in the 30's. That could be a nice return if it works out that way. AOL's highest target is 120. Nothing to sneeze at either. Hopefully the market will oblige and go up soon.

It's a little late but I just got in and decided to get this post out not knowing for sure what all is on the agenda for tomorrow around here.

Sonny

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To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26124)5/27/2000 2:43:00 AM
From: Sonny McWilliams   of 27012
 
Msft.

dailynews.yahoo.com 

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To: Barry Grossman who wrote (26121)5/27/2000 6:15:00 AM
From: Yaacov   of 27012
 
95% stocks 5% bonds is way conservative to me. I think you will be a BIG winner."

Barry, not if you have been on 70% bonds and 30% stock investment disipline all your life! gg

""Rate increases have a delayed effect on the economy and statistical data is usually 6 months out before effects are seen. Consequently," I fully agree but then Feds can find the econmy in a full recesion in Spring of 2001, if they
bump up the rates another half percent!! They must fear the
infaltion more than the recession!

Kind regards


Yaacov

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To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26124)5/27/2000 12:22:00 PM
From: Brian Malloy   of 27012
 
Sonny,

Now the link below is from LU but it is the vision that is important not the company. I don't see myself ever owning LU. I like CSCO, JDSU and SDLI much more. Markets go up and markets go down but the bias is up over time. As long as one believes in the creativity of the human race, that the path to the future is one of progress and hope then placing ones investment dollars prudently in the path of progress will lead to capital appreciation.
lucent-optical.com 

Yea, I saw Juback's article. B2B Exchanges will only grow in importance and adapt and be used for things that we can not even think of now. As the bandwidth grows thanks to the potential of optics then more and more becomes achievable in the coming netcentric future. CMRC and ARBA will be there, they will prosper or they could be brought out at a nice premium in the future. In any case, for long term investor, one can nibble and start accumulating or adding to positions.

Have a great weekend and make sure you cook the burgers well. Too much E. Coli OH157 out there.

Regards,

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To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26125)5/27/2000 7:29:00 PM
From: Sonki   of 27012
 
HI sonny & ALL ! I saw gAIL Dudak? also on passing. If she said we hit the bottom, we hit the bottom. Nothing like a a bear supporting us.

Besides, rate hikes are nearly ending. Markets are suppose to have summer rally. So like she said we could be in for a trading bounce.

I saw Ralph Acompora. He said nothing about naz target except that he had predicted naz 5000 and that has come and gone.

From down here naz 4000+ sounds good to me.

Intc has been trading like an internet stock what is going on? First there is big demand, then there is this penny short.. etc. Any how it seems intc/sunw/csco/orcl all these large cap stocks have already suggested good ernings are in store.

So all of u have nice long weekend and a great summer rally. Are u spedning summer on west coast w. your grand children or r u @home this summer?

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To: Brian Malloy who wrote (26127)5/27/2000 8:02:00 PM
From: Sonny McWilliams   of 27012
 
Brian. I don't own any LU at this time. But at times I am tempted again. Yes. It is being touted as a big optic play and some consider this stock very cheap now. It's pretty low and could move with the Telecoms. Let's see what happens in Europe on Monday and over here on Tuesday.

France is buying 46 bln worth of Orange. Wow, that's a lot to digest. gg.

biz.yahoo.com 

E coli. You haven't been anywhere lately and drank some water? Sheesh. I am more and more into bottled water. My wife does not drink anything else. Well, as far as water is concerned.

Have a nice safe weekend.

Sonny

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To: Sonki who wrote (26128)5/27/2000 8:11:00 PM
From: Sonny McWilliams   of 27012
 
Hello Sonki. Glad you had a chance to get a glimpse of Gail Dudak. Yeah, what you said about the NAZ is all Acampora had to say.

Intc. I don't think all the earnings growth is in this stock yet. Too much back and forth action. I am waiting for around 130 and then the techs should have a ball again. Hopefully.
Maybe it's time for me to get some sun exposure.

Msft is getting tempting but I heard it's better to wait on this one for a while longer. Maybe after the remedy is announced and Msft comes out with B.Gates's new vision for the net.

Yes. I am planning to make the rounds again this year. The Outer Banks of N.C., Ocean City, Md, Seattle and then Florida again. I hope the market will take pity on me soon.

There is some under the breath talk going on that next week could start a little rally. I would rather see it than hear it. gg.

Have a nice Memorial Day weekend.

Sonny

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