This analyst from Morgan Stanley DW did his own survey to study I* potential demand. His figures come in lower than Iridium's. However, Marijke Jurgens, the PR contact at I*, had walked the MS guy through her figures in detail, and now states (unofficially) that the MS guy doesn't know what he is talking about. Quote that and she'll probably deny it.
I would expect the I* folks to rebuke the MS opinion. Personally I agree with the opinions on this thread about securities analysts. Their shortcomings are due less to their acumen than to the politics of their jobs. They don't keep their jobs if they rate a risky stock "buy" before it plummets. They also don't make any more salary if they get you to buy IRIDF at the bottom. They do keep their jobs if they keep the customers from losing their butts. So there is job safety in conservative calls, very similar to mutual fund and institutional money managers. They are the herd, protecting their jobs.
We are all doing better by buying these satellite stocks before the herd catches on. AFTER the herd has arrived is when we might sell, years down the road. |
