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 Strategies & Market Trends | How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study!


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To: Howard R. Hansen who wrote (14133)1/12/2004 7:45:40 AM
From: Herm
   of 14162
 
Hello Howard,

A month later, NCC pulled back as suggested by the technical charts. You had an opportunity to cover your written ATM calls late last week. NCC is starting to bounce off the lower price support! You may want to cover
if you wish to remain long in NCC.
coveredcallswins.com
Herm

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To: Herm who wrote (14135)1/25/2004 4:10:53 PM
From: Herm
   of 14162
 
========================
HOLLYWOOD VIDEO (HLYW)
=======================

Here is a stock readers might want to check out. The P/E for this stock is super low. The company has a stock re-purchase plan in place and I would not be surprised if that cash flow is used to pump up the HLYW stock. The technical charts look good for a bottom-fishing stock. HLYW shows signs of a start of a technical bounce off the 52-week low of $11.50. Subscriber will note that I have played HLYW several times over the past three years and made good profits everytime buying the ATM or OTM options for quick in and out profits. Recently, I was in $12.25 and out of HLYW when it was $14.00 late December 2003. I made about $750 on 25 ITM options. I placed my limit buy for the April04 12.5s (HWQDV). The target price for HLYW is $12.50 to $12.75 which would put the Apr04 12.5s value at $1.05 range. Stocks will bounce off 52-week lows and sometimes move up before re-testing their lows one last time I'm hoping that will occur in the next week or so.

Dominick fired off this email question. "I'm a new subscriber. I have a question. Why are you're buying HLYW April 12.5 call for $0.75 instead of a March 10 for $2.05 at this moment?" Good question Dominick! I would not argue that the HLYW March 10s would not pay off sooner than the April 12.5s, but, I felt it would be more conservative to have the extra month to increase the probability of a payoff. In my case, I purchased 50 contracts which gives me more leverage. In summary, I rather make less with more total options contracts to increase the dollar amount payoff. Finally, there was more open interest at the April 12.50s strike price and NONE at the MAR04 10s. Not a situation you want to be in.

The HLYW play is speculation and everyone should gauge the risk vs. rewards. HLYW has a book value around $4.40 which is higher than the current $3.80 P/E and .58 PEG. The current price is dirt cheap. The technical chart readings of less than -30 STO and 30 RSI makes this prime for a no-brainer short term rebound.

coveredcallswins.com

PS - I believe the next earnings release is on Jan. 28, 2004.

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To: Herm who wrote (14137)1/25/2004 5:36:28 PM
From: Bridge Player
   of 14162
 
<< $3.80 P/E >>

Herm, did you mean a P/E of 3.8? Is that on trailing 12-months earnings?

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To: Herm who wrote (14137)1/26/2004 1:18:08 AM
From: Ira Player
   of 14162
 
Some fundamental changes have occurred and may effect the business model going forward.

Hollywood now has a "$20 have any 2 movies out at a time for 30 days" program. (Competing with NetFlix?)

This may hurt revenue since best customers reduce spending...

Expectations have been lowered...watch the technical indicators closely before entry...

Ira

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To: Bridge Player who wrote (14138)1/27/2004 6:57:10 AM
From: Herm
   of 14162
 
Yes, trailing P/E.

HLYW
Market Cap (intraday): 705.64M
Enterprise Value (27-Jan-04)³: 1.04B
Trailing P/E (ttm): 3.71
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-04)¹: 7.89
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹: 0.54
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.44
Price/Book (mrq): 2.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 0.64
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: 2.26

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To: Ira Player who wrote (14139)1/27/2004 7:21:38 AM
From: Herm
   of 14162
 
Good point IRA! HLYW is adjusting to market conditions. NetFLix is a crazy setup and the stock price is way overpriced. HLYW technical chart is reading a bottom for the near term and some kind of bounce is to be expected. I'm only doing the APR04 12.5s options at this point. I owned the stock way back when it was $2.75 and went to $12.00 in one year. That was one heck of a hit.

By the way, I have not seen any announcement or promo on "$20 have any 2 movies for 30-days" with HLYW in my area. I've seen $.99 cents for three movies for five days at their new store openings only. HLYW just opened another store in my area and received the offer via mail. I transferred my account from a store in my old neighborhood.

There is a $3.99 5-day rental normally in place for both VHS movies and CDs. What attracted me to HLYW as a customer was the vast amount of CD movies over Blockbusters.

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To: Herm who wrote (14141)1/27/2004 10:32:27 AM
From: Ira Player
   of 14162
 
The program is called "Access Pass".

You can have any 2 movies at a time out and are billed $20 every 30 days. They also have a $25 for 3 movies out at a time option.

We have 2 teen daughters and between the 4 of us, we were spending about $55 to $60 a month with them. Usually about 4 movies a weekend. (Two for us, 2 for the kids)

Now it's just $20...

Ira

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To: Ira Player who wrote (14142)1/29/2004 7:02:22 AM
From: Herm
   of 14162
 
Thanks Ira! I will be on the look out this week for that at my local HLYW. Like I mentioned, the store that just opened approx. 4 months ago and is flooding the mail with $.99 cent offer for three movies (5-days) rentals to attract new customers that may not even know the store has opened. It is a large store with a very large selection of DVD movies.

The stock is worth more than the current price of $11.30. earnings release is today after the close. The mean target price for HLYW is $18.00 this year so far.

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To: Herman J. Matos who started this subject1/30/2004 2:08:03 AM
From: Greg Peckton
   of 14162
 
my broker wont let me write covered calls on stocks I own, while letting me buy puts and calls....

does that make sense to you?

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To: Greg Peckton who wrote (14144)1/30/2004 8:52:23 AM
From: Bridge Player
   of 14162
 
Assuming:

that you own 100 shares of each stock for which you want to sell 1 call,
that the stock has options trading on it,
that it is the same account as the one in which you trade options,
that you have signed margin and option agreements,

then I think you need to take a firmer stand with your broker, and ask him to show you the company policy, or perhaps to speak with his manager, so as to better understand the policy.

If you are sure you are on solid ground and make it clear to him you know what you are talking about, IMO your broker will quickly back down.

If not, change brokers.

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