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 Strategies & Market Trends | Waiting for the big Kahuna


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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (22289)7/25/1998 12:15:00 PM
From: epicure
   of 94405
 
If that is true let me mention MAD- a Chilean ADR you might want to take a look at. The name of the company is MAdeco and they are a conglomerate in Chile, and have an interest in copper, I believe.

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To: Kip518 who wrote (22297)7/25/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard
   of 94405
 
Kip518, Is this the pattern he is referring to?
It is the only period I could find is recent history that fit.

ADV DEC RATIO
3/5/98 803 2113 0.38
3/6/98 2190 772 2.84

3/9/98 1375 1559 0.88 Pattern Begins
3/10/98 1920 1012 1.90
3/11/98 1743 1221 1.43
3/12/98 1493 1411 1.06
3/13/98 1474 1389 1.06
3/16/98 1790 1150 1.56
3/17/98 1443 1504 0.96
3/18/98 1540 1347 1.14
3/19/98 1640 1268 1.29
3/20/98 1657 1271 1.30
3/23/98 1397 1586 0.88
3/24/98 1746 1190 1.47
3/25/98 1362 1522 0.89
3/26/98 1453 1506 0.96
3/27/98 1311 1563 0.84
3/30/98 1223 1714 0.71
3/31/98 1921 1033 1.86
4/1/98 1742 1227 1.42
4/2/98 1758 1200 1.47
4/3/98 1518 1431 1.06
4/6/98 1289 1698 0.76 Pattern ends 21 days

4/7/98 875 2075 0.42
4/8/98 1276 1687 0.76

(I included 3/5/98 & 3/6/98 just to show that
they were not in the pattern)

Then if you add the ratios 4/7/98 of .42 and 4/8/98 then divide by 2,
you are less than .65

Monty

PS Jim, if you read this- - - maybe this is the holy grail I have been searching for??? :-)

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To: LG who wrote (22303)7/25/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: coug
   of 94405
 
LG,

Thats tough to answer.. Just because a person has bought stocks
and had accounts for a number of years does not make them students
of the markets.. Retail brokers are a good example, most of those that
have 25 years do not know sicum...

A person has to decide that question him/herself, how long have
you watched the ebb and flow markets closely? When did you start
buying books? When did you stop taking brokers Recommendations?
When did you first start calling the top? ggg. If it is less than
3 years, maybe that person is still "new".

BWTHDIK says .......... the Coug

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To: jim black who wrote (22296)7/25/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear
   of 94405
 
Jim: you might look at buying some GASFX and reinvesting the dividends. I don't think you'll be sorry. They own just about everybody in the natural gas business- you'll make money on industry consolidation at a minimum.

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (22281)7/25/1998 12:38:00 PM
From: BILL G. WRIGHT
   of 94405
 
Thanks. I do own some American Century Ultra

Bill W.

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To: coug who wrote (22306)7/25/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard
   of 94405
 
When did you stop taking brokers Recommendations?
When did you first start calling the top? ggg. If it is less than
3 years, maybe that person is still "new".

Hey, I resemble that remark. :-)) But I am a quick study!

Monty

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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (22282)7/25/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: Berney
   of 94405
 
Bonnie, Let's not forget the tax implications!

Mutual funds obviously foster and encourage the Buy and Hold mentality. Most mutual funds are very tax inefficient, since the average domestic equity mutual fund has a turnover ratio of 88%.

Additionally, the folks in mutual funds with a low turnover ratio will be in for a big surprise when the BK does arrive. As bond fund holders found out in '94, its not a lot of fun to see the NAV go down and big taxable dividend distributions at coming into the tax return.

As I've said to you before, I agree with your concept. Forget the mutual funds, buy the stock of the publically traded ones.

The same goes for SPY versus mutual funds in general. Much more tax efficient, lower expense ratio, and better performance than 90% of the funds. An exception exists for "specialty" funds where the manager's expertise and diversification is of importance.

Berney

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To: epicure who wrote (22304)7/25/1998 1:08:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear
   of 94405
 
X: AR is interesting- it's selling at half its book value and has a 3.5% dividend. Also interesting is SOA, it has a huge dividend. A lot of the south african gold/diamond/etc mines are selling wa-a-a-y below historic book value and have dividends, SOA could be timely for commodity bulls. South africa and chile are on my short list of emerging nations that are likely to actually emerge in the next 5-10 years.

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (22300)7/25/1998 1:23:00 PM
From: Tommaso
   of 94405
 
AMG data shows a pretty good outflow from mutual funds.

As soon as such a thing occurs three weeks in a row we may be into a pretty good downturn.

As it is, I am predicting a good-sized down day on Monday and a down week. Not many bear markets start in August.

But this is a New Era, isn't it?

amgdata.com

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (22283)7/25/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)
   of 94405
 
Speaking of Divergences, did you notice that we have a TRIPLE bearish divergence on the Nasdaq?(three price tops and three oscilator tops) Just look at the weekly MACD Histogram.

A bearish divergence is severe enough and is the strongest sell signal in technical analysis (according to Alexander Elder). But it looks like we have a triple setting up...

And it is interesting to note that at least on the DJIA in 82 we had a triple BULLISH divergence that foresaw a massive surge to the upside..and hence this bull market...now we have the opposite..time for a bear market?

Tom

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