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To: Tomas who wrote (90275)4/20/2001 9:35:36 AM
From: isopatch   of 95453
 
5th wave up in progress in many techs

Example:

siliconinvestor.com

So don't chase em in here guys unless you wanna play chicken as a 5th wave scalper.(g)

This is the 5th of A in what my work indicates is the ABC or 3 wave sequence common to Bear Market rallies.

Expect B corrective wave to begin anytime from now till Tues - at the latest. As soon as that starts look for the Dr Dooms to reappear along with massive short selling that will coil the spring for a powerful final C wave up that will take up to the top of the Bear rally.

JMHO of course(g)

Isopatch

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To: Olaf Koch who started this subject4/20/2001 11:10:03 AM
From: Big Dog   of 95453
 
In case you boys don't visit the Boom Boom Room, I thought I would drop by and post this important link. Must reading for those interested in energy.

cfr.org 

big

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To: isopatch who wrote (90274)4/20/2001 12:11:26 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack   of 95453
 
Goldman Sucks - downgrades NEM.... drumroll please - - - -


"Because" -

[..."``Newmont is impacted more than any other gold stock in our universe by low gold prices due to its relatively leveraged balance sheet, unhedged gold production and largely U.S.-based production."]

1. LEVERED (ie: impacted more than any other to "HIGHER" gold prices as well (VBG)
2. UNHEDGED
3. LARGELY US based PRODUCTION

DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ?

Can you say - C-O-N-T-R-A-R-I-A-N posterchild call from GS here ?

Why couldn't they downgrade HGMCY, GOLD & GLG as well and maybe HM for the hell of it (VBG) ?

I'd love to get just two more "bites at the NEM apple" - $14/15 for more common & $12/$13 to load "LEAP/calls".

PS: ... rumor has it the cleaning lady at Goldman found a 24kt - 14" long battery operated object under the desk of a certain well known market strategist...

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To: Big Dog who wrote (90277)4/20/2001 12:18:34 PM
From: isopatch   of 95453
 
Thx Big. You're also welcome here anytime

1st we've seen ya for quite a spell.

Don't be such a stranger.

Best regards,

Iso

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (90278)4/20/2001 12:54:09 PM
From: isopatch   of 95453
 
G.S. Getting desperate.

Too many "Coppertops" taking the red pill and waking up to the real world.(g)

Like Morpheus, Neo and "the children of Zyon" we are the most dangerous people alive to the fiat money left liberals in this country.

Even in our thread wars, most of our opponents are herd mentality in the market because they are closet socialists in their politics. Most of them were big time Alpha Al supporters last fall and attacked me relentlessly for exposing their hero for what he is - a hard left authoritarian big brother and enviro nutcase!

IMHO, most of our chihuahuas are people who need to be surrounded by a group to feel safe and secure. Before they can make decisions they need the biased political and financial media to tell them it's OK. Then thet need others to agree with them before they can make a decision. None of them are secure enough or strong willed enough to stand apart from either the politically correct herd or the perma bull or bear herds to THINK independently. Or as you call it, "Thinking outside the box".

That's why most of these chihuahuas will ALWAYS feel threatened by and ankle bite any truly individual, independent, 1st rate contrarian thinker.

But getting back to the issue of gold vs fiat paper money. Totalitarian, authoritarian politicians who want more and more government and less and less individual freedom know:

They can't take freedom from people as long as they have OR can obtain REAL MONEY i.e. precious metals. Both the Fascists and the Communists have long known that. It's no accident that the massive exodus from the Gold Standard in the late 1920s and the early 30s led directly to the rapid spread of authoritarian government on both the extreme left and right culminating in the most recent World War.

IMO?

G.S. will be joined by other W.S. houses to TRY and engineer another Short Term correction in gold.

That's why I'm ONLY buying the dips in the gold stocks. And only recently averaging into a relatively larger overall position. Now have 4 gold stocks. But all are fractions of my eventual target to be overweight in them. AEM is the largest right now. It is a full but not an overweight position. (Have to bump it up another 50% to go overweight.)

If I'm wrong? And we take off from here? "Averaging up is more fun than averaging down."

Best

Iso

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To: Olaf Koch who started this subject4/20/2001 12:58:38 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack   of 95453
 
Think the Bear is done ?

read this:

...excellent take on the Fed Cuts & historic market multiples and valuations.

gold-eagle.com 

Please; a little Mid East Flare Up; an API drop of - 7 M boe (VBG), Crude runs back to $34 and one last non-stop OSX breakout-spike to 155ish....and Gold breaks $282 - all by the 4th of July - before "earnings" reality hits the market....and the BEAR returns stronger than ever... a guy can dream right (VBG)?

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To: isopatch who wrote (90280)4/20/2001 1:11:19 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack   of 95453
 
Iso; think GS had a vested interest in keeping Gold down ?

===============

To:William H Hueb who wrote (51272)
From: Vi Friday, Apr 20, 2001 8:53 AM
View Replies (3) | Respond to of 51287

The reason for the cut?
GS Rumors
GS is down 1.60 to 98.05 on rumors there are problems with the
firm's fixed-income portfolio.

One analyst who wouldn't be named completely
dismissed the report, and GS itself said the rumor is
"ridiculous," although they would not comment on
specifics

Rumor has hedge funds that are shorting the stock
starting the rumor

netcog.com 



==============
To:michael finsterwald who wrote (67960)
From: kirby49 Friday, Apr 20, 2001 12:45 PM
Respond to of 67982

Michael:
<Last year I read that Goldman alone was short $32 Bln of the metal.>

Where do we find the current short positions that these firms hold? Has not the double bottom that has been formed been their opportunity to cover? If they haven't covered it all, they'll have to take a loss on the rest if they can't keep the price down.

===================

Commericials strongly NET long Gold & getting longer; spec's are nuts here... NEM now like 12% short interest... I love it.

Tic, Toc ~

I'm reloaded pretty well as of yesterday on PDE (largest common holding) ATW SESI (basing nicely like it for a sub $10 to $12ish move real quick if earnings surprise & a good acquisition) a little CAM & still have some driller calls (especially RIG) .... one more breakout rally move to OSX 155-160 and I promise the Oilpatch God's I shall not wish, nor want for another... promise; scouts honor (VBG)~ just "one more time" with those calls & that's all I want for Xmas (other than XAU 100)...

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To: Olaf Koch who started this subject4/20/2001 1:17:25 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack   of 95453
 
BAD LOANS NOW 1/4 OF JAPAN's GDP !!!!

...Bullsky; you gotta love this ~

(from Kitco's gold forum)
======================================================================
****More "Interesting Situations"...
(sector) Apr 20, 13:15

...in Japan. Problem Loans top $1.2 TRILLION

[...The true value of problem loans in Japan's financial system has reached ¥150,000bn ($1,200bn), officials in the Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, said.

This figure, compiled from government data, represents more than a quarter of Japan's gross domestic product and is far higher than the usual government estimate of¥33,000bn. ]

markets.ft.com 

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (90283)4/20/2001 1:21:48 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack   of 95453
 
DON'T CRY FOR ME - ARGEN-TINA~


Friday April 20, 11:40 am Eastern Time
Renewed Cavallo jitters hit Argentina's markets
By Alistair Scrutton

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, April 20 (Reuters) - Renewed jitters over a possible debt default in Argentina's struggling economy sparked local market turmoil on Friday while Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo called such fears ``irresponsible.''
ADVERTISEMENT



Argentina's country risk, measured by the spread between government bonds and safe-haven U.S. Treasuries, widened 62 points to 1,007 points in early trading.

The spreads were near levels seen in late March when sovereign bonds plummeted on fears that Latin America's third largest economy would default on its debt. Adding to the gloom, shares on the benchmark MerVal stock index (^MERV - news) fell 4 percent to 430 points in early afternoon trade.

``The market kicked off on a negative streak. There is a lot of nervousness. A snowball has been formed which cannot be stopped,'' said Hernan Fardi, economic analyst at the Maxinver.com consultancy in Buenos Aires.

Traders said there was no specific bad news that sparked the sell-off but rather a general sinking feeling that Argentina -- in its 33rd month of slump that has put its 10-year-old currency peg to the dollar under pressure -- would eventually have to face up to devaluation and debt default was scaring investors.

But Friday has topped a week during which any negative rumor appeared capable of sinking the market.

Speculation on Thursday that new Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo was stepping down hit the market, despite a denial from President Fernando de la Rua while in Washington drumming up support from U.S. President George Bush.

``It's nothing tangible,'' said Siobhan Manning, emerging market strategist at Caboto in New York. ``People are taking seriously every rumor that circulates.''

PROBLEMS MOUNT FOR CAVALLO

Analysts said there were continued worries of friction between Cavallo and the Central Bank, nervousness that the Argentine economy does not have sufficient financing to get it through the year, and concerns that private bank deposits are declining.

The Central Bank said Wednesday it would keep minimum reserve requirements at 18 percent, despite Cavallo saying last week that banks could count new government bonds as part of reserves. Cavallo has publicly urged the independent banking authority to adopt a more ``expansive'' monetary policy.

``The market is trying to push Argentina to the breaking point because everyone knows Argentina's currency is overvalued and there is no hope of growth in the immediate term,'' an emerging debt trader said.

Meeting with investors in London on Friday, Cavallo said there was no risk of a debt default and once again attacked bankers and traders whom he has already called ``shortsighted.''

``We will never consider that alternative (of debt default). To talk of default is an intellectual exercise made by irresponsible people with no experience of how to run a country,'' the minister told a news conference.

But adding to the nervousness in the economy was Cavallo's bill sent to Congress to allow the government to add the euro to the country's currency peg, which for the past ten years has tied the peso one-to-one to the U.S. dollar.

Many analysts said that move was badly timed by Cavallo as investors would not want any sea change in the currency system when the economy is being rocked by such persistent rumors.



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To: isopatch who wrote (90279)4/20/2001 1:23:33 PM
From: Tomas   of 95453
 
Kerr-McGee: Bulging inventory at last of the elite
Upstream, April 20
By Robert Smith

William Featherston at UBS Warburg pretty much says it all about Kerr-McGee at number nine.

"Kerr-McGee is completing a turnaround with one of the most impressive records of high-potential exploration success over the last two years, an attractive organic growth profile and substantial exploration growth potential."

Over the last four years, the company has sold its low-return businesses -- nuclear fuels, offshore rigs, refining and marketing, coal and selected chemicals -- in order to focus on its E&P operations.

Kerr-McGee acquired Oryx Energy in 1999, picking up 32 million deep-water acres (17 million net). Its exploration strategy has paid off with six discoveries in excess of 100 million barrels of oil equivalent, according to Featherston.

"Kerr-McGee has considerable inventories of discoveries to develop, providing the company with built-in reserves, production and cash flow growth," he says. "Additionally, with the aid of record oil prices, Kerr-McGee has restored a healthy balance sheet." At of the end of 2000, the company had proven reserves of 1.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

It has a 2001 capex budget of $205 million for exploration for which it hopes to get 25 to 30 wells -- eight to 10 in the Gulf of Mexico, three to five in the North Sea and 14 to 17 distributed among Australia, Brazil, China, Indonesia and west Africa, according to Bruce Lanni, an analyst with AG Edwards.

"Given the current inventory of prospects, this level of drilling appears achievable through to at least the end of 2005," he says. Luke Corbett, Kerr-McGee chief executive since 1997, is credited with doubling the company's assets to $7.7 billion.

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