Microcap & Penny Stocks | Air Methods (airm)


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To: joseph w renfrow who wrote (718)9/30/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: LTK007   of 877
 
Joe,we are just in a depressed market(and small cap still hurting a great dael),in my opinion, so I really don't think it's the stock,but instead the market place---look at the Financials,how would you like to have bought them at their highs---or the oils at their up levels--a lot of pain out there these days.Good Luck,Max

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To: LTK007 who wrote (719)10/15/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: Elliot Lepler   of 877
 
I have not posted on Air Methods for a while. This week I spent 3 hours at the company. In short, my visit confirmed my investment thesis.

Air Methods, the company has made spectacular progress in the past couple of years and is on a very nice trajectory in growth, both of sales and earnings.

The company would have achieved my previously stated expectation of in excess of 40 cents earnings in 1998, but for two factors.

The Sikorsky Blackhawk contract for 7 medical interiors has been delayed beyond the company's expectation by a squabble between Sikorsky and the US Armed Forces. That dispute will be settled sometime soon and the income is delayed, not lost. I think that we will see the missing 10-15 cents in 1999, maybe relatively early in the year.

The Wiring Harness contract has cost Air Methods about 4 cents this year and I am not expecting any funds to be recouped. A subcontractor's error generated the problem, but the resolution is complicated. And Air Methods wants to maintain a positive relationship with Sikorsky. I believe this was a one-time event and not predictive of any future problems.

Otherwise the financials are on track. Air Methods' quarterly income is subject to random variation in several areas, including hours flown (weather variable), maintenance expenses, collections for Mercy and the timing of manufacturing contracts. These factors tend to average out over several quarters. The company is on-budget for its flight operations and expansion.

Red Chip Review (RCR) has changed analysts for Air Methods three times. The current analyst has a different view of the income realized after the recent accidents than did the previous one. He subtracted the insurance settlement from earnings. But he does not credit against that loss the extra expenses accrued to the company in the several quarters after the crash.

In other words RCR's analysis does not present the financial performance of the company fairly. Period.

Other than the above two disappointments, we are on track and I expect the stock price to reflect the value in the coming months to years.

Two years ago the company was breaking even and sold for $3. Now they will make 30 cents or so this year and still sell for the same price.

Air Methods retained Patricof to help them consolidate the industry. They have developed a methodology to establish a value for similar companies they are looking to acquire. By those measures the company today, without any credit for the manufacturing division, is worth $6-8. My target of $10 is intact.

I expect some nice announcements in the coming weeks and my best guess for q3 earnings (due out about 11/10) is 8 cents per share.

My money is sitting tight. I would be buying more, but my position is already larger than prudent a fraction of my net worth.

Elliot

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To: Elliot Lepler who wrote (720)10/15/1998 10:17:00 AM
From: BK   of 877
 
Elliot - Thanks for the update. Wish RCR would be consistent in their methodology of evaluation or at least publish details on how they assess the company. Changing the person tracking the stock and the methodology used to determine value really hurts.

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To: BK who wrote (721)10/15/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: Elvis Jones   of 877
 
Taking advantage of this by building a position doesn't hurt.

Elliot, thanks for the update. Very good stuff! BTW, have you considered calling RCR to be their next analyst on AIRM? At least you're consistent. :o)

Happily Long AIRM,
Duke

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To: Elliot Lepler who wrote (720)10/15/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Don P.   of 877
 
Elliot,

I would like to express my sincere appreciation to you for sharing your visit at Air Methods with us. It was very interesting and reassuring and I feel that those shareholders (myself included) that cannot make the journey to their facility should feel very indebted to you.

Thanks,

Don



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To: Elliot Lepler who wrote (720)10/15/1998 8:29:00 PM
From: Amigo Mike   of 877
 
Elliot,

Excellent post. AIRM is a bargain. I did purchase some recently at 3 1/8 and will "let it ride". The overall marketplace has been very unkind to the small caps. I feel that is about to change as we move towards year end.

Amigo Mike

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To: Amigo Mike who wrote (724)10/15/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Paul Lee   of 877
 
Elliot, you are the best!!!!!!

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To: Elliot Lepler who wrote (720)10/20/1998 8:39:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly   of 877
 
AIRM press release -

biz.yahoo.com 

"Air Methods' 'Medevac' System Completes Final Army Test"

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To: Paul Lee who wrote ()10/20/1998 8:39:00 AM
From: Paul Lee   of 877
 
Good news, shame no congressman will be in town

Air Methods' 'Medevac' System
Completes Final Army Test

DENVER, Oct. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- Air Methods Corporation (Nasdaq: AIRM - news)
announced that its Multi-Mission Medevac System for the U.S. Army's UH-60Q BlackHawk
helicopter has successfully completed the final operational test preparatory for expanding product
marketing to other U.S. and foreign military operations.

During the test, a tactical unit under simulated battlefield conditions employed the UH-60Q. In
recognition of this event, the U.S. Army will display the UH-60Q, equipped with Air Methods'
interior, at the Pentagon this Wednesday and Thursday. Congress and key members of the Pentagon
have been invited to an unveiling ceremony. The Army plans to retrofit 447 UH-60Q BlackHawks
over the next 10-20 years with Air Methods' system, which enables soldiers to quickly convert a
BlackHawk from a troop and supply carrying vehicle to emergency medical evacuation vehicle
within a two minutes. Funds to construct the next seven units have been allocated and authorization is
pending.

With the operational test complete, the Army next year plans to issue a ''Type Classification''
certificate which will enable Air Methods to market the product to the U.S. Air Force, Navy and
Marines, which own more than 200 BlackHawks, as well as foreign militaries, which own more than
500. Air Methods' Product Division has already begun discussions with military representatives from
Korea, Israel, Greece and Japan.

Michael Prieto, Vice President of the Products Division, said, ''We are pleased with the progress on
the UH-60Q program as it demonstrates our ability to effectively satisfy a complex set of U.S.
military requirements and meet high standards of technical performance and quality.''

Air Methods Corporation is a leading provider in the estimated $1 billion market for aeromedical
services. In addition to its Flight Services Division, Air Methods' Mercy Air subsidiary is one of the
largest independent providers of air medical services. The Products Division specializes in the design
and manufacture of multi-functional interior products and systems for commercial and government
agencies, domestically and internationally. The Company's fleet of owned, leased or maintained
aircraft features 39 helicopters and 5 fixed wing aircraft.

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To: Paul Lee who wrote (727)10/27/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Bald Eagle   of 877
 
Anyone know when the quarter results will be released. I just went long on AIRM again today at 3 15/32. I sold a few weeks ago for 3 13/16. Looks like we are in an uptrend for the short term.

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