|Lots of things wrong, lots of things right. Here are a couple recent analyst blurbs that represent the current sentiment:|
Lehman-- Investment Conclusion:
We believe much of the recent weakness in ViaSat shares stems from this
quarter's unfavorable earnings outlook. We and management have had modest
expectations for the company's fiscal 4Q02 for some time; unfortunately, our
sentiment is unchanged. Our 2-Buy recommendation is justified by the
company's long-term defense outlook. However, for short-term horizons, we
believe the sidelines are preferable given the immediate earnings trend.
· VSAT will report its March-ending 4QF02 quarter in mid-May. We think the quarter will likely be generally in-line
with our revenue estimate of $46 million and probably exceed our Street-low $0.13 EPS.
· We believe the outlook for VSAT’s commercial broadband initiatives remains challenging; however, we believe
the company continues to have a significant pipeline of opportunities—many of which may be decided in the
May-June timeframe—that will have a major bearing on the company’s broadband ramp in 2H03 and beyond.
· The company’s pipeline of military opportunities remains substantial, including significant ramps in MIDS and
Infosec encryptions devices, but significant revenue from some of these newer programs is unlikely to be seen
until early fiscal 2004.
· While we remain comfortable with our current F2003 estimates of $214 million and $0.59 EPS, our F2H03
ramp still requires a degree of broadband success. Additionally, we believe the Street consensus $0.13 EPS
1QF03 estimate will likely have to move towards our Street-low $0.08 estimate.
· Deferred receivable collections related to slippage of the MIDS schedule and Boeing will likely result in DSO
exceeding the already high 134 days from last quarter. Though we expect a significant chunk of receivables
will be collected in June, we do not expect the receivables levels to be viewed positively on the May earnings
· We maintain our Buy rating based on the company’s longer term prospects, though we see little urgency to
purchase the shares in front of what we believe will be an lackluster 4QF02 earnings report in May.
Add to this sentiment a CFRA report that came out on April 19th, and you have a stock in the crapper. Tomorrow's report won't help as the issues will still remain. Hopefully the conference call will add details that soothe nervous investors.